Ex-transport officer’s “cherry-picked” claim that cycling in the UK is safer than the Netherlands slammed as “gibberish evidential gymnastics”; Latest Ineos staff overhaul “like rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic”, say fans + more on the live blog

A recent claim made by a transport watchdog’s former streets policy officer that cycling in the UK is now safer than in the Netherlands, a development that apparently contradicts cycling activists’ desire to ‘go Dutch’, has been criticised as “statistical cherry-picking”, “gibberish”, and “evidential gymnastics” by a member of the London Cycling Campaign.

In an opinion piece for Local Transport Today, retired Hackney councillor Vincent Stops argued that recent “pressure” from UK cycling campaigners to emulate the Netherlands’ approach to road safety has been misguided and flawed.

> “Good to see those who don’t pay road tax getting priority”: New “unsafe” Dutch-style roundabout will create “chaos” and add 45 minutes to journeys in hilly city where “most people can’t cycle”, confused drivers say

Stops claimed that instead of copying the Dutch method, which he says has seen a rapid rise in cycling injuries and fatalities in recent years, and which has led to “all manner of confusing road layouts appearing across Great Britain”, the UK’s transport authorities should revert to “data-led road safety interventions we know work”.

Stops, you may recall, is a retired Hackney councillor and the local authority’s former lead member for transport, who worked on streets policy for London TravelWatch, the capital’s statutory transport watchdog, for over 20 years.

In a blog post in 2022, he labelled cycling in the capital a “ruthless and well-resourced minority interest” that has “been allowed to ruin London’s bus service” (despite claiming that he “cycles everywhere”), and last year also argued that protests held in the wake of fatal collisions were “distasteful” and “putting people off cycling”.

> Cycling campaigners slammed for organising “deeply distasteful” protest demanding safer streets following two fatal collisions

In his latest post on Local Transport Today, the former streets policy officer said: “The surge in cycle activism during the 2010s was driven by blogging and social media campaigning, at the heart of which was the belief that in the Netherlands there was much more cycling, and that it was safer, per kilometre cycled.

“The London Cycling Campaign adopted the strap line ‘Love London, Go-Dutch’, which meant, essentially, inserting cycle tracks into London’s streets. However, 15 years on, Dutch cycle safety does not seem to support their thesis. In fact, the scale of cyclist fatalities in the Netherlands is staggeringly high and particularly so in the last two years reported.”

In what he called a “forensic examination” of the evidence Stops noted that cycling fatalities last year in the famously bike-friendly Netherlands (270, compared to 87 in the UK) were “12 times the fatalities per million population!”

However, he did also note the Netherlands’ much higher cycling mode share – though pointed to recent stats that suggest fewer people are killed in Britain per billion kilometres cycled than in the Netherlands (15.0 compared to 15.6). This rising mortality rate, Stops said, could be linked to the increasing use of e-bikes, especially by older people.

> Dutch government and neurologists call on cyclists to wear helmets – but cyclists’ union says “too much emphasis” on helmets discourages cycling and “has an air of victim blaming”

“The health benefits of cycling outweigh many times the statistically small chance of death and injury to individuals, therefore public policy rightly aspires to more and safer cycling. But the assumptions that are made by the new cycle activism should be challenged, and in particular suggesting that the Netherlands has all the solutions,” Stops continued.

“As you see, the Netherlands is grappling with cycle safety too. A question for us is whether GB should carry on as we have been, trying to emulate the Netherlands? We see e-bikes being heavily promoted in the UK these days. Should we carry on regardless under pressure from cycling activism? Or should we revert to data-led road safety interventions we know work?

“We see all manner of confusing road layouts appearing across GB, whereas we know that safer road layouts should be intuitive, understandable, and self-explaining.

“I welcome the new Transport Secretary Louise Haigh embarking on a fresh road safety strategy. A forensic examination of how we are doing would be helpful.”

> British cyclists feel less safe and more dissatisfied with their cycle lanes compared to European riders, research finds

However, in a rebuttal piece penned this week by the London Cycling Campaign’s head of campaigns and community development Simon Munk, who’ll be appearing on the road.cc Podcast this week to discuss all things culture wars, branded Stops’ “forensic examination” of the evidence “gibberish” and “statistical cherry-picking” designed to stop the introduction of cycling infrastructure.

Munk argued that Stops’ stats ignore “the hugely different demographic profiles of cycling in these countries, the differing reasons why fatalities occur in both countries, and that tying risk of cycling to very rare fatalities is not a good idea, statistically”.

Pointing out that when comparing actual fatality rates for cyclists, there are double the number killed per kilometre on UK roads compared to the Netherlands, he continued: “Using serious collisions as well would result again in a different result, and one that Stops has clearly chosen not to provide. The simple reality is cycling in the Netherlands is far safer than it is here.

“Stops throws in more stats but, ultimately, his evidential gymnastics just aren’t right. The Netherlands is far safer to cycle in than the UK, in part because, as international studies have shown repeatedly, cycle tracks work and not just for safety, but also to enable a far higher number of people and wider range to cycle for a wider range of journeys.”

> Conservative government “pursued poisonous culture wars” between cyclists and drivers, says new transport secretary – as Labour vows to “take back streets” for all road users

However, Munk also noted that “sadly, the views expressed by Stops are all too common in the transport industry. My concern is that his standpoint finds at least some sympathetic ears among those who still seem to view bicycles as toys in a grown-up world of big choo-choo machines.

“The transport industry cannot legitimately keep insisting that of course we all want more cycling as we face crises of climate, inactivity, road danger, congestion, pollution, community severance, and more, if every scheme comes down to an argument about whether cycle tracks are safe and how to even design them. That’s not to mention the behind-the-scenes bunfight every scheme faces for capacity.”

Finally, he concluded: “The one thing I agree with Stops on is that I also welcome the Government ‘embarking on a fresh road safety strategy. A forensic examination of how we are doing would be helpful’.

“I can only hope any government ‘grown-ups in the room’ involved in that examination won’t use cherry-picked stats to make a hackneyed anti-cycling case, but instead seek to find ways to deliver on pressing issues we all face, using evidence and best practice.”

> Britain’s only UCI-sanctioned one-day race to return for 2025, after battling financial pressures that “could have ended the race forever”

I wonder if Sir Jim Ratcliffe will ever get round to running a sporting organisation that isn’t in need of constant “thorough” reviews, structural overhauls, or management changes (well, I suppose the sailing team is doing pretty well, but still).

After a pretty turbulent few weeks – even by their own chaotic recent standards – which have seen Tom Pidcock’s future thrown in the air after the Olympic champion was dropped at the last minute from Il Lombardia, along with a few withering parting shots from the outgoing Ethan Hayter, last night the Ineos Grenadiers announced new structure and staff changes ahead of next season.

These changes, the under pressure British squad say, were based on a “thorough review of the team’s performance operations” carried out over the last six months by performance director Scott Drawer, in an attempt “to build on the strong foundations and team already in place and support the objective to win the biggest races in cycling”.

(Elliot Keen/British Cycling/via SWpix.com)

Among a string of new staff appointments, the highly-rated former Sky and CSC pro Kurt Asle Arvesen joins as a sports director, as does recently retired racer Leonardo Basso, whose freelance DS role this year has been upgraded to a permanent one.

Meanwhile, Dr. Mehdi Kordi, the British track and sprint specialist and brains behind the Dutch squad’s phenomenal success at the Paris Olympics, joins as head of performance support and innovation.

According to Ineos, this new structure will focus on “three distinct performance streams – Grand Tours and Stage Racing, Classics and One Day Racing, and Future Talent. There will be a renewed focus on specialist coaching in time trials, sprint, and power development, endurance training science, race strategy, aerodynamics, and technology development.”

So, cycling then.

Meanwhile, there has been no official confirmation about any outgoings, though head mechanic Diego Costa (not the former Chelsea forward and shithousery specialist, unfortunately) announced this morning that he’s leaving the team after two stints with Sky/Ineos.

More new staff will apparently be announced in early 2025, including a new head of engineering and technology, replacing the Red Bull-Bora-bound Dan Bigham.

> “I’ve had a tricky year working with them. And once I was leaving, it was even trickier”: Soudal Quick-Step-bound Ethan Hayter latest to publicly criticise Ineos Grenadiers, claiming British team “could do with a couple of changes”

“I’ve spent six months listening, observing, and working with the team to determine what's needed to set ourselves up for excellence for 2025 and beyond. I’ve been looking at every element of how we race, how we train and how we support our riders in the changing landscape of professional cycling,” performance director Drawer said in a statement.

“We have a highly motivated, hungry and ambitious team of coaches, sport directors and performance specialists who want to create an environment that allows our riders to fulfil their potential. That collective energy and desire will set us up for the challenges and opportunities that await in 2025.

“We are going to spend the rest of this year making further positive changes: setting the team’s performance plans and goals, executing some key training camps and getting the whole team ready to race hard in January. We want to set the right tone from the start and will be working closely with our riders to establish the culture which will facilitate success and be fundamental to our future.”

(Will Palmer/SWpix.com)

However, while the Ineos diehards are optimistic that these changes will turn things around after a difficult and turbulent season, others aren’t as convinced.

“Step in the right direction but change starts at the top. Can you truly change with the management and the same system behind?” one fan asked on social media.

“Ineos seem to love a review,” added Sean, while Stuart described the team as the “most dysfunctional senior management in cycling. And that is really saying something.”

“Instead of the blah, blah, blah, what about winning again,” piped up Simon.

“It’s the language of corporate reorganization,” said Five Shoes. “Simplified reporting lines, quarterly performance reviews, agile. Only a matter of time before they start talking about the cycling calendar as Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4.”

It really is only a matter of time, isn’t it?

(Elliot Keen/British Cycling/via SWpix.com)

“This just feels like an announcement for a managed decline as much as a structure change,” says J. “Which would be fine if the team was less bloated and had a focus instead of how it is now.”

“No mention of improvement in attitude towards riders (though could be said that’s been an issue off and on for over a decade),” noted Lynne.

Meanwhile, cycling YouTuber Benji Naesen said: “Curious to see what these changes bring to Ineos, but I feel like it's going to require more than structure and staff changes to turn the ship around.”

“One thing it might change would be in terms of recruitment though, must have been very hard to get anyone good to join from the outside when it looks like a sinking ship, it might looked like a patched up sinking ship now,” wrote Elias.

Continuing on the nautical theme, Charlotte added: “It does feel a bit like rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic. But these are good people for sure and they might be able to make a difference.”

Well, the proof is in the 2025 pudding (or the ship), I suppose…

Looks like cycling ‘songwriter’ Killow has released their latest ‘tune’ – earplugs at the ready:

ZWIFTIE out this week 🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/qznfRG8U7N

— killow (zwiftie fall) (@killow_) October 22, 2024