My name is Tadej Pogačar, king of kings: Look on my works, Ye mighty and despair.
If a certain Slovenian doesn’t win this year’s Tour de France, it will be a bigger story than if he does. His are not yet vast and trunkless legs, eroded by history into a distant past. Instead, this is living history, we are compelled to ‘witness greatness’, to be wowed by the lack of competition he has found, not just at the biggest bike race in the world but at every different type of race in the world. Jonas Vingegaard would not be seen dead riding the dangerous, narrow roads above Sanremo. The newly-confirmed-as-retired Chris Froome will never again be seen near a cobblestone.
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It is not just that Jonas Vingegaard’s preparation has been derailed by crashes in previous years, it is the leap that Pogačar has made since changing coach at the end of 2023, becoming not only unreachable but ignored by his rivals. His most recent Tour de Suisse made a mockery of past Grand Tour winners and present podium contenders.
His stage one attack with 70km to go appeared almost accidental, a short interval effort that inadvertently dropped all those on his wheel. Having built a gap, it would have been disrespectful to drop back, and no-one could chase. In last year’s UAE Tour, surely a contractual obligation if ever there was one, he entered a pan-flat sprint stage breakaway, concerned a day spent in a WorldTour peloton in the desert would be too ‘idle’ for his conditioning.
What builds and sustains our intrigue for this general classification battle is hope. If it’s the hope that kills you, then it’s hope that gives you reason to feel alive. Over 3000km, riders crash, mistakes happen. There are eras when stages just happen and stages when eras can be re-written.
Last year’s race was contemporarily viewed as the beginning of Pogačar’s era of ennui, a deep-rooted fatigue was setting in and the rhythm and routine of winning a Grand Tour appeared tiresome to the man who was winning it all. In hindsight we see a man nursing knee injury, contemplating race withdrawal, his post-stage routine disrupted by smuggled hospital visits to see if he could even continue. All from an innocuous crash in the first week.
If Jonas Vingegaard defeats Pogačar to win a third Tour de France it will surely be the greatest achievement of his career. He will have beaten the undefeatable. It would be rude to liken a four-time Grand Tour winner to Cape Verde but he will have to match a Spain side 21 times over. We lack recent evidence that Vingegaard can stay with Pogačar when he launches an attack, or any evidence that a Vingegaard attack since 2023 has put Pogačar in any form of difficulty.
On the Plateau de Beille stage in 2024, Vingegaard attempted to drop Pogačar mano-a-mano. But without a certain Slovenian’s explosivity, he could only slowly turn the screw, for 10 minutes hoping the half-wheel gap behind him would open further. When he finally dared to look back, Pogačar immediately countered and dropped the Dane, gaining a minute in just five kilometres.
Pogačar meanwhile has mastered the template of how to drop Vingegaard, using his final mountain domestique to almost sprint into his attack, be it Rafał Majka, Jhonatan Narváez or, as seen in Liège–Bastogne–Liège earlier this year, Benoît Cosnefroy. Expect Isaac Del Toro, himself a prolific winner and GC contender, to play a similar role.
The joker in all this is Paul Seixas, the one-rider who hung on to Pogačar’s wheel when Cosnefroy launched his blistering attack on La Redoute at Liège. He carries the hopes of an expectant home nation but seems unburdened by it. His crash in the race formerly known as the Dauphiné was a setback, but his withdrawal appeared precautionary, and his team, even with a lead-out man for Olav Kooij, will be focused around him.
But Seixas is innocent, unaware of the dull cumulative fatigue of a Grand Tour, let alone a third week GC dogfight. The final weekend’s double ascent of Alpe d’Huez could be his forging or his unmaking. In a poetic way that suits scribblers of long-form narratives it could be both.
Florian Lipowitz is in excellent form, unpressured courtesy of a starlight Remco Evenepoel who will be stalked by a ravenous Belgian press pack whenever he dares to look up from his stem. Evenepoel is unknown, unraced and unpredictable. A podium is possible but recent history suggests the double Olympic champion will be fighting on short punchy climbs before falling back on the longer climbs exceeding 30 minutes in length. The German, meanwhile is my bet to replicate his podium achievements of last year.
Netcompany-Ineos, the grey-suited digital sovereignty overlords, are unlikely to once again fight Lipowitz for the podium. Instead with Oscar Onley injured, Filippo Ganna, Tobias Foss and Josh Tarling should fire the team into the yellow jersey on the opening team time trial before Thymen Arensman, Egan Bernal and Kévin Vauquelin likely settle for chasing stages and GC infiltration via breakaways. Guillaume Martin-Guyonnet would be proud. The French philosopher is slowly building form by the way, and finished 10th at the Dauphiné earlier this month.
Outside the super teams, Tobias Halland Johannessen and Juan Ayuso are building form and seem well-placed to challenge one another for a top-5, a top-10 for Movistar’s Cian Uijtdebroeks or Bahrain’s Antonio Tiberi would do wonders for their reputations after difficult years of injury struggles.
And then there is Tom Pidcock, a man whose own expectations of himself appear to far outweigh whatever it is the media ask of him. He seems to relish the spotlight of a watching camera, his eyes twinkle, his quips punch when he perceives his rivals lack the courage to beat him fair and square. A weak team for the opening team time trial could put yellow out of reach, but the opening punchy stages are made for a rider of his profile. Replicating his Vuelta a España podium here seems highly unlikely, but a bit of combativity in the race wouldn’t go amiss from the feisty Yorkshireman, or a mountains jersey battle with Richard Carapaz or Lenny Martinez.
Of course, the wonder of the Tour de France is far beyond any battle for yellow. In 180-odd riders are fantastic stories of adversity overcome and opportunities seized. Cycling’s results sheets are an eternal disservice to the stories interwoven on the road, the comradeship built among prima facie rivals. The behemoth of artificial intelligence could never replicate the motivation of a rider who attacks into their home village, childhood or adopted. The wonders of a machine will never understand the raucous sordidness of a Dutch corner, the morale-lift of domestiques wheelie-ing or toasting their way up cycling’s most feared climbs.
It is not just a race but a spectacle one deserves to feel, to absorb whilst the spectacle lasts. It’ll be more authentic than the World Cup, in any event.
If this dose of romanticism hasn’t got you in the mood, then maybe the more grounded predictions of road.cc’s finest will focus your attention. It should be said that Ryan has written a truly excellent stage-by-stage guide, which will tell you everything you need to know about where the race is going and what sort of thing might happen along the way.
In short, Catalonia punchiness, more early Pyrenees, mid-race Massif Central, southern Vosges segue into northern Alps culminating in back-to-back Alpe d’Huez before the Montmartre finale. In between are up to 6 sprint stages, a wrongly formatted TTT, and a short third week individual effort. But it’s France, you get the idea.
As in previous years, we’ve asked our resident egg-heads for their hopes and dreams for the race, as well as their best attempts at pouring cold water on their own predictions. We take no responsibility for your fantasy team fortunes, unless of course you win…
Who is going to win?
Jack Sexty, group editor: Tadej Pogačar: I was tempted to take a punt on Vingegaard, arguably he’s looking stronger than last year and won the Giro at a canter – but with Wout van Aert sadly out of the race, I just can’t see anyone being able to live with Pog, especially with this edition being so mountainous. The only way he doesn’t win the GC is because of illness or injury.
Dave Atkinson, Chief Brompton Crasher: If Tadej Pogačar stays upright, and healthy, he’ll win. There’s a part of me that thinks he’ll try and get the yellow as early as possible and wear it to Paris. It’s certainly not tactically the easiest way to win, but he’s good enough, and his team will be good enough. It’s 65 years since Jacques Anquetil managed to hold it for the entire race; I wouldn’t put it past him to try. If he smashes himself up in a crash or comes down with the lurgy then the race gets a lot more interesting, really: Vingegaard is next best but the gaps to the likes of Lipowitz, Seixas and Del Toro (who’s on fire right now) aren’t of the same magnitude.
Emily Tillett, Tech Writer: Pogačar – Vingegaard impressed at the Vuelta but Pogačar has looked more dominant every time he takes to the startline, Vingegaard is surely worried by the ease at which Pog solo’d away from a classy group of riders at the Tour de Suisse.
Callum Devereux, News Writer: Anyone looking beyond Pogačar is very brave. Surely only misfortune or a clash of egos in his team will stop him, but neither feel likely.
Liam Cahill, Video Production Lead: I’ll be honest I don’t care who wins, I just want a close race. Fine, I’ll pick Vingegaard.
Who will finish on the podium?
Jack: 1. Pogačar. 2. Vingegaard. Even without his super domestique in Wout van Aert, I don’t think there’s anyone else who can live with Vingegaard on those crucial mountain stages. Except for Pogačar, who has a stronger team to deliver him to the start of the summits with fresh-ish legs vs the Dane. 3. Isaac del Toro. I was speculatively going to say Oscar Onley, but unfortunately he’s out after that shocking crash at the Dauphine. As this Tour has so many mountains and only one ITT, and Del Toro is the most capable of supporting his teammate (Pogačar) for the longest until the big two inevitably pull away, it has to be the Mexican for me.
Callum: 1. Pogačar 2. Vingegaard 3. Lipowitz
Dave: 1. Pogačar. 2. Vingegaard 3. Lipowitz. Seixas to show early promise but fall away and end up riding for the polka dots, in classic French contender style. Del Toro is good enough for the podium but has a job to do.
Emily: 1. Pogačar 2. Vingegaard 3. Seixas
Liam: 1. Vingegaard, 2. Pogačar, 3. Lipowitz
Who will win the other jersey classifications?
Dave: The flatter stages will have two intermediate sprints. That probably moves the needle a long way in favour of the sprintier sprinters, as there are more points to be hoovered up on the flat days. That makes Jasper Philipsen the favourite for me. Biniam Girmay managed third last year without much form so can’t be discounted, but he’s better as an all-rounder and I don’t think the new rules will suit him.
Polka dots? Last year Tadej won it and if the big guns stay in contention he’ll probably win it again. If someone like Paul Seixas or Remco Evenepoel gets properly distanced in the GC really early on then they might be allowed enough rope to hoover up sufficient points for the jersey in Paris.
Callum: This has to be Mads Pedersen’s year for green, so many lumpy stages where he can get in breaks, and it’s not clear how long Lidl-Trek can keep Jonathan Milan away from the race after winning three stages last year. He’s barely raced however and his form is uncertain. I’ll tip Juan Ayuso for white ahead of Del Toro and Seixas. The romantic in me will pick Egan Bernal for the polka dot jersey. After all he’s been through he deserves to be on a Tour podium. Good luck keeping it off Pogačar though.
Liam: Green – Girmay looks back on form. White – Seixas will fade in the third week but take white. Polka-dot – Pidcock stops messing about with GC and gets back to stage wins, taking a spotty jumper in the process.
Jack: Green: Pogačar. Polka dot: Del Toro. White: Del Toro
Emily: Green: Philipsen. Polka dot: Pogačar. White: Seixas.
What do you think of the route?
Jack: I like it and I don’t. There is potential for absolute GC fireworks in the final week with the back-to-back Alpe D’Huez stages, but because it’s so stacked towards the end I don’t think Pogačar will make any attempt to crack Vingegaard early on, which could mean a quiet first couple of weeks.
Liam: A very non-traditional route with a first week loaded with attack points and big climbs is likely far better for casual cycling fans and the general public. But who thought that putting a TTT on the first day, especially when that day is a Saturday, was a good idea? Moronic. They’re so incredibly dull.
Dave: A huge final week with an individual time trial and three summit finishes (two on Alpe d’Huez) but I suspect the race as a contest will be done by the end of the Vosges stages. A hard start for the sprinters, gone are the days of the big lads having it their own way in the first week, although the needle will no doubt tilt back the other way. A few good breakaway stages, possibly as early as stage 3 but maybe not as many as usual.
Callum: No cobbles, no gravel, barely any Pyrenees, northern and western France ignored. Wrong TTT format, not enough ITT. Could be better…
How do you expect the race to unfold tactically?
Jack: I think we could see a rider who isn’t Pogačar or Vingegaard in yellow for a decent period of time if someone takes a big win on the Tourmalet (stage 6) – but whoever that is they will struggle to hold them off past stage 14, and almost certainly not on stage 19.
There’s not much for the sprinters this year, which is why I’m predicting Pogačar could actually take green as well unless someone like a Jasper Philipsen takes a good chunk of the sprint stages and some intermediates. The opening team time trial start doesn’t excite me much, neither does the ITT route.
Dave: I’d love to see UAE try and keep Pogačar in yellow for the whole race: they’re among the favourites for the stage 1 team time trial and they’ve got the depth in the squad to make it happen. They’re probably not that daft though, so they’ll likely keep a loose leash on things until stage 6 where they’ll begin to assert themselves. The second weekend is where it’s going to be won or lost: stages 14, 15 and 16.
Callum: Assuming Netcompany-Ineos win the opening TTT, any of Tobias Foss, Thymen Arensman or Kevin Vauquelin in yellow means we might have quite a dynamic opening to the race whilst they hang on in the lead, at least until the Tourmalet day. The time gaps may be tight for a while, but I can’t help but see Pogačar leading after the first week and not giving it up, unless Guillaume Martin-Guyonnet’s tactic of GC via breakaway infiltration finally comes off spectacularly. The final weekend on Alpe d’Huez will be utter mayhem and I can see the race being disturbed by swarming crowds.
Liam: I believe that Pogačar will take time early in the race, utilising his frankly disgusting seated power we saw in Suisse to power away on the Cote du Castell de Montjuic. However, as Roubaix showed, he can get flustered when a problem arises and I wouldn’t rule out a bit of mechanical 2nd week drama. Vingegaard looked like he won the Giro at a canter and I’m hoping for a third week attack royale, leading to a super entertaining race.
Emily: Should be exciting until the end…unless Pog does a Pog…
Who is one to watch who could surprise the race?
Jack: It’s got to be Paul Seixas – I know his very recent performances perhaps haven’t justified the hype, but it would be great if he actually does take it to Pogačar and Vingegaard. It’s a shame about his crash at the Dauphine because we just don’t know, but that’s also more exciting because we just don’t know.
Dave: I think that both Mattias Skjelmose and Valentin Paret-Peintre are riders that have under-performed at the three-week Grand Tour level, prone to having a really bad day at the office and sinking from contention. If they can be more consistent, they can feature.
Callum: Baptiste Veistroffer, a slightly mad Belgian who has already been in 12 breakaways this season. Expect to see him up the road a lot and once or twice maybe fighting for a win to the end.
Emily: Florian Lipowitz
Liam: Richard Carapaz quietly doesn’t lose time, then goes full send in the third week.
Which sprinters will dominate?
Emily: Jasper Philipsen.
Jasper Philipsen and Tadej Pogačar discuss the stage three finish at the 2023 Tour de France (Image Credit: A.S.O./Pauline Ballet)
Dave: Philipsen. Tim Merlier and Arnaud de Lie can win stages but probably won’t be consistent enough to top the pile.
Liam: No one, though I think Philipsen edges the most wins.
Jack: With no Milan, I can’t see past Philipsen taking the most sprint stage wins – but I don’t think he’ll dominate, which is why I’ve gone left-field and predicted a sprinter won’t win the green jersey, even after the points rules were updated to seemingly make it more difficult for a GC contender to win green.
Callum: With so few opportunities I’ll say no one, but an Olav Kooij win or two would be huge for him and takes the pressure off of Seixas.
What are you most looking forward to?
Dave: I’ve ridden the Col du Haag Climb which features on Stage 14: it’s a narrow, steep forest track converted into a bike path. It’ll be absolutely mobbed, and it’ll be carnage. An Alpe d’Huez finish is always a highlight, and especially late on, on a short stage. Let’s hope it’s still close (it likely won’t be)
Liam: I might be riding down to watch the double Alpe d’Huez stage. Croix de Fer first thing before a dash over and up to the Sarenne would be a proper day out.
Emily: Seeing if they can beat my time up the Sarenne – they will.
Jack: Seixas. I’m on the hype train and am intrigued to see if he is the real deal.
Callum: I always get too invested in the battle for 7-10th on GC. Climbers who aren’t quite good enough, typically poor time trialists and without teammates when the going gets tough. I want to see Cian Uijtdebroeks, Guillaume Martin-Guyonnet, Jordan Jegat and Michael Storer triumph over the super team domestiques like Del Toro, Brandon McNulty and Adam Yates – and that’s just UAE!
What’s something you want to see but don’t think will happen?
Emily: Wout van Aert winning on the Champs Elysees 🙁
Liam: Ben Healy does bike racing better than everyone in the break again, takes yellow and holds it into the early stages of the third week.
Callum: A Fred Wright stage win, nothing more, nothing less.
Dave: Thibaut Pinot’s goats to run into the road as stage 13 goes through Mélisey and take out all the non-french GC contenders, leading to a Seixas/Paret-Peintre/Martinez shootout on Alpe d’Huez.
Jack: Chris Froome, freshly appointed as Skoda’s latest big name ambassador, is scheduled to perform a drive of honour up L’Alpe D’Huez to promote the brand’s latest electric car shortly before the peloton rolls through on stage 20. As he’s driving through a sea of bemused spectators waiting for the riders, the moto in front of him – being driven by none other than Sir Bradley Wiggins in his new role as motorbike chaperone to Chris Froome’s shiny new Skoda (they heard he had previous moto experience) – is blocked by some drunk fans wearing inflatable banana costumes. Wiggo slams the brakes, Froome goes into the back of him and totals his motor.
Sir Bradley is catapulted forward, but is thankfully cushioned by the drunken bananas. Froomey, dressed in full cycling kit complete with his winning yellow jersey from 2016, checks his former colleague is ok, and is left stranded with Pogacar et al fast approaching. In scenes reminiscent of his Ventoux heroics a decade earlier, Froome has no choice but to run up the Alpe to find assistance, and luckily a fan hands him a nice dependable bicycle.
With fresh legs, Froome is up for it and holds the peloton off, crossing the line with arms aloft for one final Tour de France swansong (I admit this would have worked better if the Ventoux featured in this year’s Tour. Perhaps I should have sat on it).
2 thoughts on “Is this the most predictable Tour de France of the decade? road.cc’s ‘expert’ panel might prove you wrong”
I agree with Dave, I think: if UAE put Pogacar into yellow tomorrow I really wouldn’t put it past him to decide to go for 21 yellow jerseys. An ordinary podium contender and an ordinary team would not countenance that but he and they are neither.
I reckon one of the safest predictions going is that we won’t get 21 [contested] stages.