At the end of a week when the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) warned that “the UK is travelling in the wrong direction” after official figures showed a 7.3 per cent decline in cycling miles travelled and a 2.2 per cent rise in car journeys between 2022 and 2023, a newly available document shows that the Department for Transport knew it was not investing enough in active travel to hit its targets.

The ‘Insights from investment modelling’ has been made available on the government website, the report initially produced in 2019 aims to understand how much additional investment would be needed to achieve the initial ‘Cycling and walking investment strategy’ targets for 2025.

The document explains that the modelling suggests “some £5-8 billion of further investment across the economy (not solely using funds from central Government) is required to reach the cycling aim of 1.6 billion cycle stages”. 

In the summer of 2022, the Department for Transport said it would invest £3.78bn in active travel schemes until 2025 as part of its refreshed cycling and walking investment strategy. In March of the following year, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt slashed the budget for active travel schemes, a widely criticised move that the Walking & Cycling Alliance called a “backwards step” and one that would make it “impossible” to hit Net Zero and active travel targets.

> Cycling and walking targets “in tatters”: Damning report finds government almost certain to fail on active travel objectives in England

Transport Action Network (TAN) is challenging the cuts in the High Court, and hours before Mr Justice Jay’s decision to permit the challenge, lawyers acting for the department were forced to disclose slides which highlighted how the cuts would “devastate” sustainable travel in most of England’s local transport authorities outside of London.

And the latest document to be revealed, the aforementioned ‘Insights from investment modelling’, also shows that the Department for Transport was aware that “Benefit cost ratio (BCRs) for the cycling central scenarios are in the range 2.0 to 3.1, implying high value for money”.

“Packages of interventions in areas with a high intrinsic cycling potential have BCRs over 5. Value for money of investment in walking to school is expected to be at least High,” the government was told.

The report also states that the investment required could be lower, in the region of £3.4 billion and £5.4 billion, if “cycling investment is combined with strong traffic restraint”, such as parking restrictions.

“In two ‘higher cost’ scenarios in which all investment is in infrastructure (without accompanying revenue investment in behaviour change interventions to maximise take-up of new infrastructure) the additional investment to reach 1.6 billion stages is more than £10 billion,” it continued.

Cyclists in London male and female in cycle lane – copyright Simon MacMichael
Cyclists in London male and female in cycle lane – copyright Simon MacMichael (Image Credit: Simon MacMichael)

The government’s attitude to active travel investment has been criticised at length in recent times, the IPPR last month slamming the “shocking lack of progress”, while Cycling UK has also warned of “chronic underfunding”.

In September, the cycling charity blamed the “depressing” decrease in cycling traffic on the government’s cuts to the active travel budget.

The ongoing legal challenge has also led to papers being obtained which revealed how “a crackpot conspiracy theory” that misrepresented the urban planning concept of the 15-minute city led to the government slashing funding for active travel and pledge to review measures aimed at curbing the use of private motor vehicles.

Instead, much of the government’s messaging has been around ending the so-called war on motorists, Rishi Sunak unveiling a ‘Plan for Motorists’ at the Conservative Party conference last autumn, an approach which is expected to reemerge during the run up to the general election on July 4.

Six of the UK’s leading active travel groups, including the CEOs of Cycling UK, British Cycling, Bikeability Trust, Living Streets, Ramblers, and Sustrans, reacted to the ‘Plan for Motorists’ by warning that the Prime Minister would deny citizens “their choice, health, and freedom”.