Brexit blamed as London-Paris organisers say next year’s edition will be the last

Simon E wrote:

Brexit has resulted in a large number of people with a non-UK passport leaving this country to work elsewhere.

Net migration must be down significantly.

Rich_cb wrote:

If Indian firms can provide services to UK consumers at lower costs then that is a benefit of free trade.

If the provision of said services involves large numbers of British workers losing their jobs then that's not going to be much of a benefit, is it?

That's the standard protectionist line.

Free trade leads to lower prices, increased productivity and greater economic growth. That drives living standards higher.

Protectionism does the converse.

The average wage in India is around £5000 per year. No British company providing services will be able to compete with the prices people paying those salaries can offer. It's no good just saying "that's the standard protectionist line", do you accept that opening up a free market to Indian services will involve British workers losing their jobs and if you do do you think that's a price worth paying?

Yes and Yes.

In much the same way that opening up to the EU led to the loss of British jobs.

What was the average wage in Poland when they joined?

I don't know.

So doing it in Poland was bad, but doing it in India is good. So what is the Brexit benefit again?

I didn't say it was bad to allow Poland in to the EU. I was simply offering up Poland as interesting comparator.

If you supported free movement from countries such as Poland (with an average salary of £5k when they joined EU) it seems strange to oppose limited access to specified sections of the economy for Indian workers (with an average salary of £5k).

And I was just stating that we have endured the extra cost to the economy, plus the extra level of beauracracy travelling 21 miles across the sea (just a gentle reminder what the initial topic was, especially as you never commented on the Carnet posts but told someone else there were no facts in the article to support Brexit being a reason for the changes announced). 

So the Benefits you have listed on this thread is that we can ship Lamb 12k miles across the sea instead of 21 miles across the sea, and we replace Poland with India for cheap wages IF businesses are moved there. I would also state that unless nefarious practices happened (I'm sure they did and still do), the movement of the person from Poland WOULD not mean they were on £5k annual wage (neither if an Indian came here).

The Aus/NZ deal is predicted by the Government to be less then 0.1 to GDP in 10 years time, which is when you did state we would see the benefits. The Pacific Pact is less then that, although I understand it might be more in hope that China joins it (remind me again that the Indian deal will help reduce reliance on China when the goverment is hoping China joins another trade deal). In fact the majority of our trade deals we have made are literally carbon copies of the ones made with the EU so with those, there was no actual benefit to leaving (although I suppose extra wages for the hirelings and lawyers to make the documents up. Is it a benefit when a government spends its money with private companies?)

And the one you are laying all the hopes on you actually have no idea what it contains. As the big stumbling block seems to be immigration (whispers of a schism in the cabinet over it, especially as Kemi has already ruled it out) then it would need to be a massive boost to the economy of the UK, (especially with yourself mentioning too much migration and it being one of Sunaks five cornerstones pledges) for it to include any migration and again actually be a benefit to "taking control". 
 

My point was that if the carnet problems had genuinely made the road event untenable then how was the gravel event, which would require exactly the same paperwork, able to continue?

That strongly implies the problem was not just with the carnet despite the article implying that this was the overriding reason.

We're still able to import lamb from the EU if we wish, we now have access to more NZ lamb which, even after accounting for shipping, is lower carbon than EU lamb.

I agree that no Polish worker could have been legally employed on £5k a year in the UK but that doesn't mean there were no opportunities for outsourcing work to Poland. There are a lot of coding jobs now based in Eastern Europe as an example.

The UK definitely does not want China to join CPTPP and would almost certainly veto it as would Australia.
CPTPP is as much a geopolitical entity as it is a trading bloc, it's designed to act as a bulwark against Chinese economic hegemony in the area. The ambition on both fronts is for the US to join, they were due to be a founding member until Trump nixed it.

I don't have a problem with skilled migration, my department at work is full of highly qualified people from all over the world, I'd happily extend more Visas to Indian professionals.

India's economy is likely to be comparable in size to the USA's within a generation and is then predicted to surpass it, building closer economic ties now has the potential to reap enormous rewards in the future.

That was the point of Brexit from my perspective, it allows us to be far more ambitious on trade, to eschew protectionism in favour of growth.

If we can get the trade deal with India over the line then we'll have taken a huge step towards making that a reality.

And yet you ignored multiple times that the reason one can go ahead more easily and one is stuggling is the AMOUNT of paperwork needed to supply for taking 350 bikes compared to 20 (based on the 2022 videos, we can review number again once they post the 2023 up), especially as you need to get manufacturer, model , frame number, weight, purchase price and country of origin for each bike at a minimum. And if the Gravel ones are as low as that, they might just tell riders that they need to travel with their own bike their and back rather then the seperate bike transport that is offered on the road ones previously. We shall see when they announce details of any significant changes

And as I mentioned previously, they run two other similar rides in Italy and one in South Africa which are going ahead fine with the only difference being cyclists do travel with their own bike (or hire one at the destination). So but gravel argument is easily debunked. So where one event that needs carnets is being canned (although other reasons are also mentioned in the press release and both articles) and two other EU events which don't need them are going on with no changes, the extra Brexit requirement probably do have an impact. 

AlsoSomniloquism wrote:

And yet you ignored multiple times that the reason one can go ahead more easily and one is stuggling is the AMOUNT of paperwork needed to supply for taking 350 bikes compared to 20

rich_cb wrote:

If it's the size of the road event that's the issue then splitting the group into groups that are sized similarly to the gravel groups would surely solve the issue.

If they can run similar events in a way that would not require carnets that also suggests that the carnets weren't the decisive factor.

AlsoSomniloquism wrote:

So doing it in Poland was bad, but doing it in India is good. So what is the Brexit benefit again?

TAKING BACK CONTROL!

BLUE PASSPORTS!

Rich_cb wrote:

Yes and Yes. In much the same way that opening up to the EU led to the loss of British jobs. What was the average wage in Poland when they joined?

Did it?

how do you explain the massive prosperity increase of the country during the EU years followed by economic decline following brexit?

Are you arguing that no British jobs were ever lost to the EU at any point?

Rich_cb wrote:

Are you arguing that no British jobs were ever lost to the EU at any point?

Shurely only possible before we joined or after we left?  Unless you mean "to other countries in the EU"?

I guess this just shows for many in the UK the dividing line was very hard not to see.

Odd that some cannot see the Irish sea but can see the Channel.  (Though I suspect that e.g. going for a visit across the former is much more popular than the latter.)  Mind you it's only 12 miles to the island of Ireland at the closest point... EDIT for pedantry yes, this is the North Channel...

Rendel Harris wrote:

The average wage in India is around £5000 per year. No British company providing services will be able to compete with the prices people paying those salaries can offer. It's no good just saying "that's the standard protectionist line", do you accept that opening up a free market to Indian services will involve British workers losing their jobs and if you do do you think that's a price worth paying?

Alarmist nonsense, will never happen.  And if it does it's because those British workers simply chose not to do those jobs to pursue more profitable alternatives, or were not productive so were holding us back.

chrisonatrike wrote:

Rendel Harris wrote:

The average wage in India is around £5000 per year. No British company providing services will be able to compete with the prices people paying those salaries can offer. It's no good just saying "that's the standard protectionist line", do you accept that opening up a free market to Indian services will involve British workers losing their jobs and if you do do you think that's a price worth paying?

Alarmist nonsense, will never happen.  And if it does it's because those British workers simply chose not to do those jobs to pursue more profitable alternatives, or were not productive so were holding us back.

Sir Humphrey Appleby : Then we follow the four-stage strategy.

Bernard Woolley : What's that?

Sir Richard Wharton : Standard Foreign Office response in a time of crisis.

Sir Richard Wharton : In stage one we say nothing is going to happen.

Sir Humphrey Appleby : Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.

Sir Richard Wharton : In stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we *can* do.

Sir Humphrey Appleby : Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now.

Tell me about those lower prices, do - cheaper food was one of the many lies told in the run-up to the ballot. Weekly shopping trolley attached, up £15 per week from June 2022 (Sky NEWS). £900, it's cost me, and counting.  I know you'll tell me it's a global thing, but we're ahead of the Eurozone and it feels like we're struggling more broadly.  

Glad I'm not myself a borrower - any new receipts there look like they're already swallowed-up.

What  an increasingly unwell and drab country we are becoming now for many people; people who are already low, dogs and cats are paying the price. I don't see a deal with India perking up this lot. Rejoin the SM and CU would be a atart. 

Perhaps it's time for me to bring Deliveroo to my village? There's only the fish & chip shop at the moment. 

Over-50s looking for work should think about delivering takeaways, minister says

Job-seekers over 50 should consider delivering takeaways, the work and pensions secretary has said. 

Soaring mortgage costs affecting mental health of almost third of people

New research reveals that around a third of people in England and Wales have attributed a significant decline in their mental health to the substantial increase in mortgage costs in the past year. 

Nearly four in 10 people living with existing mental health problems said the rising costs had worsened their struggles.

The UK's prominent mental health charity, Mind, noted a remarkable 55% surge in inquiries to its Infoline over the past 18 months, largely related to financial hardships like welfare issues, unemployment concerns, and personal debt.

Conducted with Censuswide, the charity's survey involved 3,015 participants in England and Wales during March and April, predating the recent decision by the Bank of England to raise interest rates from 5% to 5.25% in its pursuit of curbing inflation - an action that will add pressure to mortgage holders.

Mind's survey indicates that roughly 29% of respondents were affected by the experience or knowledge of mounting mortgage expenses in the past year, with 10% noting a substantial impact on their mental well-being.

Cost of living crisis leads to 'fun deficit' in Scotland

The soaring cost of living crisis has led to a significant "fun deficit" in Scotland, prompting people to sacrifice their cherished social interactions, hobbies, and even beloved pets. 

Recent research revealed that a considerable number of people are forgoing activities that add value to life due to financial struggles. 

According to a YouGov survey conducted for Citizens Advice Scotland (CAS), 41% of respondents have quit some form of social engagement, such as dining out, in the past financial year. 

Moreover, 23% have given up certain hobbies, and around 3% (137,000 people) have been forced to part with their pets. An additional statistic showed that some 36% of Scots couldn't afford a holiday.

- as predicted by Remain, we're going back to the pre EU bad old days of my early childhood, aren't we: there was a holiday - one week at a holiday camp, a few days in a b&b or a chalet and we almost never, through the year, ate out.

https://news.sky.com/story/cost-of-living-latest-rent-soars-by-fifth-in-...

chrisonatrike wrote:

Cheaper petrochemical products refined from Russian oil?
More cut-price gemstones?  Cheaper generic medicines and rice might be good though.

Will it be easier for my local curry house to recruit skilled chefs?  I wouldn't object to that - although I'm not personally feeling there's a shortage IIRC this is a complaint of the industry.

What might we be selling to India?  Currently they still get their weapons from Russia.  I'm thinking they're well supplied on the IT front also.  Old ships?  Perhaps we could sell them good British Assam and Darjeeling tea?

I think it's mainly whisky that we'll be selling to them - I'm fairly sure that any trade deal with India will be far better for them than for us as they're in a much stronger bargaining position and our "expert" negotiators haven't got a great track record.

Rich_cb wrote:

A big trade deal will give a clear benefit (that can't be dismissed or ignored) to point to when debating pros and cons and will end the 'there are no benefits' line of argument.

There are still very considerable stumbling blocks with a UK-India FTA, particularly regarding the matter of worker migration. Last time I looked the Indian side at least were saying it was highly unlikely to be signed off before the Indian elections of spring 2024 and then it could all be up in the air again. Meanwhile the EU is negotiating its own deal with India which is also facing stumbling blocks, particularly in the area of medical patents, but if it comes off one would naturally expect, given the massively bigger market to which it would give India access, it to be on much more favourable terms than any India would grant  in any single nation deal.

India and the EU have been negotiating, on and off, since 2007 (IIRC).

I wouldn't hold your breath for a swift resolution of the issues at hand.

I've read that they hope to announce the UK India deal during Sunak's upcoming visit to India for the G20. They were apparently incredibly close to sign off last year, the announcement was due to take place on Diwali.

Given both sides face imminent elections they will both be motivated to have a major deal to trumpet.

Rich_cb wrote:

I've read that they hope to announce the UK India deal during Sunak's upcoming visit to India for the G20. They were apparently incredibly close to sign off last year, the announcement was due to take place on Diwali. Given both sides face imminent elections they will both be motivated to have a major deal to trumpet.

Well, last week the UK Government ended their statement regarding the end of round eleven of negotiations with "The twelfth round of negotiations is due to take place in the coming months." Given that the G20 is just over a month away either they're deliberately hiding their massive success from us in order to spring a big surprise or it's not happening.

The previous round of talks concluded in June, then this most recent round concluded in July.

It's not unreasonable to assume a further round could be concluded before September, if that were the final round then it would be possible for the deal to be announced at the G20 summit in India.

It's all speculation untill it's actually announced of course.

Indeed, time will tell. This Indian report certainly seems sanguine as to the chances of success but also states "both sides are looking at concluding talks by the end of the year."

Report confirms 12th round of talks in early August which would leave space for a 13th round immediately prior to the G20.

19/26 areas signed off so looks like it's getting pretty close.

Hmmm...if after 12 rounds 25% is left still to be agreed on the chances of all of that being signed off in one go would seem unlikely, particularly as it's most likely the most contentious matters that remain. I'll be happy to be proved wrong.

That's assuming no progress on the remaining areas to date.

It's more likely that each area is someway along the route to sign off so the remaining work is much less than 25%.

Could be possible in 2 meetings with the final meeting coinciding with G20.

We'll have to wait and see but definitely positive that both sides are still targeting sign off this year.

Let's say the India trade deal does indeed slot nicely into place.  It won't make Brexit worthwhile. 

If I cut off all my fingers and then have one sewn back on to the back of my knee...does that count as an overall benefit?