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news
M25 traffic queue (CC licensed by Timo Newton-Syms on Flickr)Cycle traffic down and motor traffic up in 2015 according to DfT figures
Despite David Cameron’s promise of a ‘cycling revolution’ and his pledge to double cycling levels in Britain by 2025, official figures show that there was a nine per cent decline in bicycle usage last year. Department for Transport (DfT) figures reveal a drop of about 300 million miles travelled by bike compared to 2014.
The data indicates that 3.2 billion miles were travelled by bicycle in 2015 compared with 3.5 billion in 2014. The DfT told The Times that the decline was a statistical blip masking an almost continuous annual increase.
While it’s true that the last recorded fall in DfT figures came in 2007 and cycling levels remain higher than they’ve been since the 1990s, it is striking that not one single region recorded a rise. Despite investment, even London saw a fall from 380 million miles cycled in 2014 to 370 million in 2015.
The overall drop also coincides with a record number of vehicles on British roads, with 316.7 billion traffic miles logged in 2015 – up 1.6 per cent on 2014. Provisional estimates for the 12-months up until March 2016 indicate a further rise to 318.5 billion vehicle miles in that period.
The biggest increase in 2015 was among delivery vans, where there was a 4.2 per cent rise and The Times asks whether Britain’s burgeoning internet shopping habit could be forcing cyclists off the road.
However, all classes of motor vehicle traffic saw a rise in 2015. Car traffic increased by 1.3 per cent to a record 248.9 billion vehicle miles. Traffic on rural A roads also rose by three per cent to the highest ever recorded level.
Alex has written for more cricket publications than the rest of the road.cc team combined. Despite the apparent evidence of this picture, he doesn't especially like cake.
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PCCs are an attempt to provide Legitimacy by connecting an elected representative to the oversight of Policing. Thus voter surveys to sample...
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9 comments
This is worrying.
Of course this is all nonsense, everyone knows that you measure cycling distance in kilometres not miles.
And the correct unit in old money is cakes, not miles.
Whatever surveying methodology was used in 2015 will be much the same as was used in 2014, and 2013, and 2012, probably 2011 and 2010 as well, most likely very similar to that used in 2009 and 2008 and... You get the picture. It may be inaccurate to a greater or lesser degree, but if the inaccuracy is consistent then you can plot trends within given bounds of error and still find statistically significant results.
I'd guess figures given for miles driven can be corroborated by the numbers of miles people claim to drive on their insurance quotes. Cycling probably comes from surveys and so on. As it happens, I have done some lifestyle type surveys over the past year, which did cover things like how I travel around. I don't know how big the samples for those things are, but if they're big enough then they can be meaningful enough.
Besides, why are you getting your knickers in a knot over this anyway? It's not a slight on you; no one is accusing you of letting the side down. I cycled more in 2015 than 2014, and I'll do way more again in 2016 as I'm now commuting to work by bike. I've probably cycled twice as many miles this year so far as I've driven. Maybe next year, when the numbers are back up, I'll pat myself on the back and buy myself a pint, safe in the knowledge I've turned the country's transport woes around.
Exactly, how do they know? My Strava miles actually went up slightly from the year before and my car mileage went down. Probably the person compiling the report asked a couple of people in the office what they did and then added several zeroes.
How do they know? I've never been asked how many miles I ride or drive each year, and I don't have my ride data online. Smells a bit like bullshit to me.
Understanding the method is a good question. The DfT record traffic counts on A roads, I don't believe there's any national data on urban use. Some local authorities do their own spot surveys, and there is of course data from multiple cycle hire schemes, but I don't believe any of that ends up in this report.
You can drill down into traffic count data here, which can be interesting or depressing depending on where you live.
http://www.dft.gov.uk/traffic-counts/
Come on people, I clocked 10,000 miles according to strava last year, what have the rest of you been up to
motoring is cheap, the cost of fuel crashed, add to that the perception that cycling is dangerous, and finally the attitude that cyclists are scum, what hope have you of getting an increase in "vehicular"* cycling?
*cycling as transport not cycling as a leisure pursuit.