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Here we go again....and just why is Mr Porte so heavily fancied again?...He was stealing a living last season. 

He’s definitely the first issue to think about this season for the purist team...isn’t he?

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RoryC4 [3 posts] 3 months ago
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I suppose he always seems to perform in the TDU and will want to make a big impression for his new team. All depends on his pricing for me

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Condor Andy [630 posts] 3 months ago
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His 'stealing a living' year included winning the Tour de Suisse and 3rd at the Tour de Romandie. 2nd at the TDU too, it was only his TdF that was bollocks. He turns 34 at the end of this month if that sways your opinion at all.

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Gkam84 [9131 posts] 3 months ago
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I'm going to try and make more of an effort this season to actually play the game, rather than just chucking in a team and not making transfers. I basically played both teams as purist last season and the season before since I left the admin side of the game and let others take it on, I sort of lost interest because I wasn't having to log in daily and update anything.

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dave atkinson [6488 posts] 3 months ago
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Porte has been on the podium every year since 2015, and has won the queen stage every year since 2014. so perhaps not *that* surprising he's a favourite...

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Dr Winston [523 posts] 3 months ago
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@Andy. I didn’t mean that unkindly...he genuinely looked like he was struggling to finish stages at times let alone whole races by the end. He was nothing but a passenger at the Vuelta and beyond and even before his two good races he struggled. 

I know this is his race historically but i’m Surprised he’s such a big a favourite as he’s looking at the moment with some stiff competition in this tour and how his season ended...

 

 

 

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Condor Andy [630 posts] 3 months ago
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Yeah it's a good line-up for TDU. Poels, Latour etc. He was a passenger at the Vuelta because he was still recovering from his Tour crash. I guess we'll see if he's fully recovered from it.

I agree though, I don't think he'll have an amazing year, but he should still do well here. The thing I'm thinking of with team selection is, there's only really stage 6 that's GC, maaaaybe stage 5 as well depending on how the final climb is raced. I'm going sprint heavy with the purist team.

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Dr Winston [523 posts] 3 months ago
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Did you mean stage 4 Andy?....That looks like the deciding stage for the game depending upon how it is ridden in real life. It could be that a few GC contenders just look at each other for too long, or a full on battle...or a breakaway from the top of the corkscrew....or maybe they make a pigs ear of it and it ends up a reduced sprint. 

It’s a really well placed stage. If we assume that the pretenders know that beating Porte on Willunga Hill may be difficult it could be their best chance to put some time into him.

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Condor Andy [630 posts] 3 months ago
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Errrr yeah, stage 4, that one. Here's hoping for late attacks on that one.

The thing is, Impey won last year because of bonus seconds on stages 2 and 4, and then only losing 8 seconds to Porte on Willunga Hill. The GC gaps are never really that huge and Willunga Hill isn't hard enough really. I'm going sprint heavy in the purist with a couple of outside bets.

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Dr Winston [523 posts] 3 months ago
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Good ploy Andy...and a fair assessment. Two quite cheap good outside bets in the game imo for GC.

 

That stage could easily see somebody like Valgren or Sanchez throw a giant spanner in the works for the GC boys and our plans for our teams. Like you say the gaps on Willunga Hill are quite small whereas a well ridden stage 4 could be more profitable time wise. Given the fact that the likes of Woods and Porte will be favourites for stage 6 then anybody else will surely target that stage 4.

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Condor Andy [630 posts] 3 months ago
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I keep having to remind myself (even after all this time playing) that it's mostly a stage game, even in the purist. There will be (probably) 4 sprints and only 2 GC days, and one of those is a maybe. My big question is, do I take all three expensive boys in the hope they'll finish 1-2-3 every sprint stage?

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Dr Winston [523 posts] 3 months ago
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Not just a case of finishing 1-2-3 either Andy. With time bonuses at all intermediate sprints it would only take two of them to be hell bent on taking the pts jersey (and leaders Jersey for a while) to battle it out and the points will soon rack up. Having said that the likes of Impey and Ulissi may also target those bonus seconds. Sagan and Viviani have enjoyed those sorts of steals in the past whilst Ewan of course could carry all of GC, pts and Youth jerseys for a while. Having said that stages three, four and six may not quite turn out as we’d like with all three at the end if we go that way....although stage three has two intermediate sprints straight out of the traps..

Having said all that though it may just well be that a few teams would happily see UniSA ride off into the sunset and mop up plenty of bonus seconds....Porte for one would gladly see the bonus seconds evaporate I suspect.

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Dr Winston [523 posts] 3 months ago
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Who do you fancy as outside bets Andy? I can see quite a few.

I quite fancy Prades to do well after he finished really well last season....having said that this race really rests on nicking just a few seconds here and there so to that end there are very many who could do that. Ulissi, Valgren, Prades,, Sanchez...loads of them could do it.  It’s ok with the standard game because you can just let the game unfold but really hard to name the right outsider for the purist game.

Condor Andy wrote:

Errrr yeah, stage 4, that’s go one. Here's hoping for late attacks on that one.

The thing is, Impey won last year because of bonus seconds on stages 2 and 4, and then only losing 8 seconds to Porte on Willunga Hill. The GC gaps are never really that huge and Willunga Hill isn't hard enough really. I'm going sprint heavy in the purist with a couple of outside bets.

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Condor Andy [630 posts] 3 months ago
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I think you've covered most of them, Valgren is an interesting one. I fancy him to do quite well.  Other cheaper options are Pat Bevin, good Tour of Britain last year; Dries Devenyns always seems to do well here too; and then Wout Poels is cheap, but maybe the race isn't hard enough for him.  Really I don't see many people who'll score huge points apart from the big three.

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MinardiM189 [383 posts] 3 months ago
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Stage 1.

Forecast to be very windy tomorrow and the lap of the finish circuit has been taken out to avoid the possibility dropped groups interfering with the front group.

This could also signal big problems for some of the GC candidates.

Stage 2.

Extreme heat protocol means the route has been shortened by 29km, a stretch that went through the hills has been removed. This should make is a bit easier for the heavier sprinters.

 

Overall.

I don't expect Valgren and certain others to be any where near their best, too early in the year for them to be competitive.

It will be interesting to see how the likes of Prades and Ballerini go in their first outings for WT teams. Ballerini was well positioned in the TDU Classic but got caught up in the last corner crash, I fancy him to do well in TDU but he is a bit expensive for a gamble.

Interesting that some teams only arrived last week, whereas others have been in Australia since the end of December. Some riders will be much better prepared for the hot conditions than others.

Doull was sprinting for Sky yesterday because Halvorsen was feeling ill in the heat, the last race where Doull was lead sprinter was Tour of Britain in 2015 , he did very well against a top sprinter field and won the points jersey and finished 4th on GC.

Good luck to everybody for our first outing of 2019.

 

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Condor Andy [630 posts] 3 months ago
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Cheers for the heads up about the stages Minardi, I'll change the info on the admin site.

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Dr Winston [523 posts] 3 months ago
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Aye....and that’s part of the beauty of this game. It’s quite easy to discuss who may win a race like this but they can do it without racking up many pts at all until the last day. Winning a small tour, or getting close, is not the same as getting a lot of pts....sometimes...

Condor Andy wrote:

I think you've covered most of them, Valgren is an interesting one. I fancy him to do quite well.  Other cheaper options are Pat Bevin, good Tour of Britain last year; Dries Devenyns always seems to do well here too; and then Wout Poels is cheap, but maybe the race isn't hard enough for him.  Really I don't see many people who'll score huge points apart from the big three.

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JohnnyRemo [296 posts] 3 months ago
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Whoo-Hoo! Can we end the (purist) season now, please! yes

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MinardiM189 [383 posts] 3 months ago
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Interesting Stage 1.

Very surprised teams allowed Bevin to get in the break, he is a good outside bet for GC. Lucky for me as I have him in both purist and standard teams  1

Walscheid with an incredible sprint, he went long into a headwind and only that incredible late run by Viviani stopped an impressive win. Jumbo delivering VanPoppel too early yet again, looked like DVP didn't have the legs either. Philipsen looked good & would probably got 3rd if Bauhaus didn't deliberately block him.

Sagan looked slow, he went backwards in the final sprint, which is very unusual. Tomorrow should suit him better as the final is uphill.

Stage 3 could be the significant stage for both standard and purist. If it stays at the planned distance, we could see most of the sprinters disappear as GC teams make it tough on the finishing circuit. If it is very hot (the forecast is 40+) they might reduce the number of laps of the finishing circuit, that should give some of the sprinters a better chance to go the distance.

I'm hoping it is hot and goes the full distance.

 

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Dr Winston [523 posts] 3 months ago
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Don’t forget the stage has two early sprints which make it more than a little interesting. Impey and co have declared the need to grab seconds but Viviani and co may also be grabbing those in their fight for the pts jersey. Stage 3 is gearing up to be a really good one.

MinardiM189 wrote:

Interesting Stage 1.

Very surprised teams allowed Bevin to get in the break, he is a good outside bet for GC. Lucky for me as I have him in both purist and standard teams  1

Walscheid with an incredible sprint, he went long into a headwind and only that incredible late run by Viviani stopped an impressive win. Jumbo delivering VanPoppel too early yet again, looked like DVP didn't have the legs either. Philipsen looked good & would probably got 3rd if Bauhaus didn't deliberately block him.

Sagan looked slow, he went backwards in the final sprint, which is very unusual. Tomorrow should suit him better as the final is uphill.

Stage 3 could be the significant stage for both standard and purist. If it stays at the planned distance, we could see most of the sprinters disappear as GC teams make it tough on the finishing circuit. If it is very hot (the forecast is 40+) they might reduce the number of laps of the finishing circuit, that should give some of the sprinters a better chance to go the distance.

I'm hoping it is hot and goes the full distance.

 

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teckert [19 posts] 3 months ago
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Very impressive win by Bevin.  Def chance for overall imo.

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MinardiM189 [383 posts] 3 months ago
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Dr Winston wrote:

Don’t forget the stage has two early sprints which make it more than a little interesting. Impey and co have declared the need to grab seconds but Viviani and co may also be grabbing those in their fight for the pts jersey. Stage 3 is gearing up to be a really good one.

Yes, it will be interesting to see who goes for those sprints. With a hard day forecast a lot of riders will probably decide to save their energy to ensure they are there at the finish.

I suspect some teams will decide the stage is too hard for their sprinters and use them to try and stop competitors getting bonus seconds, eg. Walscheid, Bauhaus,Mareczko, Van Poppel. As you others like Viviani could be after the points jersey.

We could also see a lot of attacks on the finishing circuit. Before the final 2 climbs there is a very tight hairpin which could be a great point to attack as the peloton slows and stretches out going around the corner.

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Dr Winston [523 posts] 3 months ago
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Agreed Minardi. They could be hard fought couple of intermediate sprints. I just don’t see that they can be ignored by either the sprinters or the GC boys/rolleurs. Small margins in this race.

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Dr Winston [523 posts] 3 months ago
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I literally have no idea what to make of tonight’s stage. It looks for all the world like a Belgian classic rolleur stage where they all shoot off at a pace....but is that even realistic in the heat they’ve been riding in ?....Pffft....errrr....mmmm...

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MinardiM189 [383 posts] 3 months ago
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Dr Winston wrote:

I literally have no idea what to make of tonight’s stage. It looks for all the world like a Belgian classic rolleur stage where they all shoot off at a pace....but is that even realistic in the heat they’ve been riding in ?....Pffft....errrr....mmmm...

I'm not sure what to expect from this one, either.

Mitchelton Scott are almost certain to make it hard, hoping for Impey to win the sprint. They will probably get some help from other teams. The only top sprinters who might make it are probably Ewan & Sagan.

So interesting I might stay up and watch it.

 

 

 

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Dr Winston [523 posts] 3 months ago
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If I learned nothing else last year it was not to jump on rolleurs too soon because there are too many good ones all capable of letting us down, Much better to wait until they’ve shown their hand on the GC and Jersey tables before getting them....the trouble is on small stage races like this it can be too late. So often it’s better to keep the sprinter with the pts for one more stage and be sure rather than swap too early 

MinardiM189 wrote:
Dr Winston wrote:

I literally have no idea what to make of tonight’s stage. It looks for all the world like a Belgian classic rolleur stage where they all shoot off at a pace....but is that even realistic in the heat they’ve been riding in ?....Pffft....errrr....mmmm...

I'm not sure what to expect from this one, either.

Mitchelton Scott are almost certain to make it hard, hoping for Impey to win the sprint. They will probably get some help from other teams. The only top sprinters who might make it are probably Ewan & Sagan.

So interesting I might stay up and watch it.

 

 

 

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Dr Winston [523 posts] 3 months ago
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Btw...what channel are you watching it on ? 

Dr Winston wrote:

If I learned nothing else last year it was not to jump on rolleurs too soon because there are too many good ones all capable of letting us down, Much better to wait until they’ve shown their hand on the GC and Jersey tables before getting them....the trouble is on small stage races like this it can be too late. So often it’s better to keep the sprinter with the pts for one more stage and be sure rather than swap too early 

MinardiM189 wrote:
Dr Winston wrote:

I literally have no idea what to make of tonight’s stage. It looks for all the world like a Belgian classic rolleur stage where they all shoot off at a pace....but is that even realistic in the heat they’ve been riding in ?....Pffft....errrr....mmmm...

I'm not sure what to expect from this one, either.

Mitchelton Scott are almost certain to make it hard, hoping for Impey to win the sprint. They will probably get some help from other teams. The only top sprinters who might make it are probably Ewan & Sagan.

So interesting I might stay up and watch it.

 

 

 

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Dr Winston [523 posts] 3 months ago
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@ Minardi....bllx...just what we didn’t want. I see you ditched Viviani as well and now he’s gone and contested those two early sprints....damn...I feared that....

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MinardiM189 [383 posts] 3 months ago
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Dr Winston wrote:

@ Minardi....bllx...just what we didn’t want. I see you ditched Viviani as well and now he’s gone and contested those two early sprints....damn...I feared that....

I was more tempted to leave Ewan in than Viviani, thinking he might make it to the finish.

My big regret is picking Haas, he was struggling to hang on in the final lap and finished 7s down at the end. For once I should have listened to 'previewers' who said Haas looked poor at the Aussie Nationals and probably had no form.

A bit worried by McCarthy too, he hasn't shown anything so far but hopefully he is saving energy for tomorrow.

Wish I had picked Chris Hamilton from the start, looks like he could win the young rider and finish with a top 10 on GC.

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Dr Winston [523 posts] 3 months ago
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He didn’t really enter my head. My 3.0,s of choice were Harper initially due to being 7th (ITT) and 2nd (road) at the Australian championships prior to the TDU. Then my head got turned by Ploeg who was being fancied by quite a few for breakaway duties and then did just that at the classic...so I ended up with him...(both UniSA)....I think I got locked into wondering which one rather than looking at any other choices. ...I just got it wrong really for all the right reasons......quote=MinardiM189]

Dr Winston wrote:

@ Minardi....bllx...just what we didn’t want. I see you ditched Viviani as well and now he’s gone and contested those two early sprints....damn...I feared that....

I was more tempted to leave Ewan in than Viviani, thinking he might make it to the finish.

My big regret is picking Haas, he was struggling to hang on in the final lap and finished 7s down at the end. For once I should have listened to 'previewers' who said Haas looked poor at the Aussie Nationals and probably had no form.

A bit worried by McCarthy too, he hasn't shown anything so far but hopefully he is saving energy for tomorrow.

Wish I had picked Chris Hamilton from the start, looks like he could win the young rider and finish with a top 10 on GC.

[/quote]

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MinardiM189 [383 posts] 3 months ago
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Dr Winston wrote:

He didn’t really enter my head. My 3.0,s of choice were Harper initially due to being 7th (ITT) and 2nd (road) at the Australian championships prior to the TDU. Then my head got turned by Ploeg who was being fancied by quite a few for breakaway duties and then did just that at the classic...so I ended up with him...(both UniSA)....I think I got locked into wondering which one rather than looking at any other choices. ...I just got it wrong really for all the right reasons......

I had those two too, Harper for the same reasons & Ploeg because he might pick up some sprint points. Picking Ploeg was a mistake.

Like you said earlier, leaving the sprinters in until the puncheurs had showed there cards was the way to go, I ended up with Haas, McCarthy (who are nowhere near their normal form) and Dennis, who also seems to be struggling a bit.

6 points in 2 stages from 3 transfers and my TDU standard is screwed.

I have been watching the race on Facebook , GCN are showing it in Europe (Global Cycling Network) and also on Tiz Cycling.

 

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