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Tour down under
Here we go again....and just why is Mr Porte so heavily fancied again?...He was stealing a living last season.
He’s definitely the first issue to think about this season for the purist team...isn’t he?
If you're new please join in and if you have questions pop them below and the forum regulars will answer as best we can.
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Latest Comments
- Mr Blackbird 1 hour 33 min ago
I suspect you are right. But no harm in hoping.
- Jack Sexty 1 hour 51 min ago
Apologies for the oversight there, it's been corrected. Obviously it should have said 97ft🤦♂️
- festival 2 hours 8 min ago
The more this Nash gezzer opens his mouth the worse he comes across. The mans passion for green issues clouds his judgement on common decency!
- a1white 3 hours 39 min ago
Simon Nash needs to just stick to making the produts and seriously step back from social media and all the marketing. He's an absolute liability to...
- Jitensha Oni 3 hours 53 min ago
Because drivers often find it hard too and nobody’s perfect (indeed a few are bad on purpose)? It’s not really fair to expect people cycling to...
- wtjs 4 hours 12 min ago
Even I would say 'report horse ramming to the police ' because just ignoring that report is viewed as less acceptable than if it was a cyclist -...
- chrisonabike 5 hours 41 min ago
I wasn't a bike geek or "serious" rider then (not now...) - my ride was a non-suspended 26" wheel "mountain bike" with V-brakes and piano key...
- mdavidford 5 hours 50 min ago
And, bonus, you can get rid of feed zones - just make them carry all their supplies in the basket.
- IanMK 6 hours 21 min ago
Indistinguishable? I overtook a legal e-bike last week. I am a member of the public and I managed to distinguish it from an illegal e-motorbike...
- Condor Andy 8 hours 7 min ago
I tried to make a thread announcing a league code for Velogames, but it seems to have been banished to the aether. The code is 620099424
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41 comments
Bevin cleared to race today. Confirmed.
Damn....Caleb Ewan disqualified and no Viviani is gonna hurt....
I went the other way and chose Viviani over Ewan, the relegation for Ewan is great news for anyone who didn't have him.
Given how close the standard competition can be at the end of the year, this stage could be the difference between winning and losing.
So you think Viviani will go for the intermediate sprint points?
The only way Viviani can win is if Bevin does not finish. I have a feeling Sagan will try and get in the break, we could have both Sagan & Viviani.
I took a punt on Gibbons, which looks like it backfired, it was Gibbons, Sanchez or Guerreiro. Gibbons did as expected but both Guerreiro and Sanchez did better than I expected. Hopefully Gibbons can stay with the group up Willalunga and surprise everbody again, however I expect Guerreiro to be the best of the three tomorrow.
Yes I do think Viviani will go for those sprint pts...and Sagan. Or put it another way...it would suit quite a few GC teams if those two went up the road in a group on a battle for the pts jersey standings and kept Impey well away from the bonus seconds...they certainly wouldn’t fight to bring them back.
Got up to 22nd now but it could have been so much better with Ewan.
Looks like you have a few transfers left too.
You have managed this race much better than I did. If Ewan hadn't been relegated I would be much further back.
I think if we want to win a race we have to be prepared to get on riders early and hope they perform as expected...just like Haas and McCarthy...perfectly good picks but if they’re not quite on song then it blows up in our faces...but it doesn’t mean they were bad picks...just early picks. If we want to do well overall for the season it’s far better to wait and accept not winning the race but just doing well in every/most races and grinding it out.
I won two races last season.
Catalunya where I just got lucky by getting on the right rolleur horses early but could easily have gone wrong and left me way down....as it did on the next race...
and
The Vuelta which I won due, in no small part, to the fact I managed to miss two deadlines that turned out to be the right deadlines to miss in view of what I planned and how those riders did...and those were rolleur picks as well that would have done me in...I ended up with about five extra transfers at the end to play around with on the last few stages. A serious bit of luck there.
What do I type into Facebook to watch it?
The facebook page is - https://www.facebook.com/globalcyclingnetwork/
or do a search fro GCN and it comes up.
Normally I try to leave a bit of flexibility in my team but this time went a bit 'gung ho'. I compounded it by bringing in Poels for stage 4, my choice of sprinters for tomorrow is now limited.
Hopefully someone makes tomorrows stage slightly crazy.
It starts uphill then the first intermediate sprint is after 47km just after the KoM.
Some teams could go hard from the start, drop the top sprinters and go for bonus seconds with their GC rider. Depending who is in the front group and what the gaps are it could go all the way.
Looking at the course and weather forecast there will be a 20-30kph cross tailwind for the final 40km. Again this could see things go crazy.
A really tricky day to call tactically. The four GC boys of Porte, Bennett, Poels and Oods May just end up dragging Sanchez, Bevin, Impey and Ulissi towards the sprint if they do that....would the GC boys not prefer Ewan and Viviani and co to take all the bonus seconds.?....Mmmm...crikey....mmmm again....dunno....you might be right.
I have 5 transfers left and beginning to wonder where I will use them all.quote=MinardiM189]
Normally I try to leave a bit of flexibility in my team but this time went a bit 'gung ho'. I compounded it by bringing in Poels for stage 4, my choice of sprinters for tomorrow is now limited.
Hopefully someone makes tomorrows stage slightly crazy.
It starts uphill then the first intermediate sprint is after 47km just after the KoM.
Some teams could go hard from the start, drop the top sprinters and go for bonus seconds with their GC rider. Depending who is in the front group and what the gaps are it could go all the way.
Looking at the course and weather forecast there will be a 20-30kph cross tailwind for the final 40km. Again this could see things go crazy.
[/quote]
I include Impey & Bevin among the GC guys. The climb is nowhere near hard enough to drop them anyway.
Mitchelton Scott could make it a hard start to set up Impey for some time bonuses.
Impey has said tomorrows stage should be 'interesting' and that 'we need to be aggressive wherever we can'.
I have 5 transfers left too.
Ulissi is worth keeping an eye on as well. Porte has stolen his thunder over the years with five wins in a row but Ulissi’s record is impressive as well.
@ Minardi....bllx...just what we didn’t want. I see you ditched Viviani as well and now he’s gone and contested those two early sprints....damn...I feared that....
I was more tempted to leave Ewan in than Viviani, thinking he might make it to the finish.
My big regret is picking Haas, he was struggling to hang on in the final lap and finished 7s down at the end. For once I should have listened to 'previewers' who said Haas looked poor at the Aussie Nationals and probably had no form.
A bit worried by McCarthy too, he hasn't shown anything so far but hopefully he is saving energy for tomorrow.
Wish I had picked Chris Hamilton from the start, looks like he could win the young rider and finish with a top 10 on GC.
He didn’t really enter my head. My 3.0,s of choice were Harper initially due to being 7th (ITT) and 2nd (road) at the Australian championships prior to the TDU. Then my head got turned by Ploeg who was being fancied by quite a few for breakaway duties and then did just that at the classic...so I ended up with him...(both UniSA)....I think I got locked into wondering which one rather than looking at any other choices. ...I just got it wrong really for all the right reasons......quote=MinardiM189]
I was more tempted to leave Ewan in than Viviani, thinking he might make it to the finish.
My big regret is picking Haas, he was struggling to hang on in the final lap and finished 7s down at the end. For once I should have listened to 'previewers' who said Haas looked poor at the Aussie Nationals and probably had no form.
A bit worried by McCarthy too, he hasn't shown anything so far but hopefully he is saving energy for tomorrow.
Wish I had picked Chris Hamilton from the start, looks like he could win the young rider and finish with a top 10 on GC.
[/quote]
I had those two too, Harper for the same reasons & Ploeg because he might pick up some sprint points. Picking Ploeg was a mistake.
Like you said earlier, leaving the sprinters in until the puncheurs had showed there cards was the way to go, I ended up with Haas, McCarthy (who are nowhere near their normal form) and Dennis, who also seems to be struggling a bit.
6 points in 2 stages from 3 transfers and my TDU standard is screwed.
I have been watching the race on Facebook , GCN are showing it in Europe (Global Cycling Network) and also on Tiz Cycling.
I literally have no idea what to make of tonight’s stage. It looks for all the world like a Belgian classic rolleur stage where they all shoot off at a pace....but is that even realistic in the heat they’ve been riding in ?....Pffft....errrr....mmmm...
I'm not sure what to expect from this one, either.
Mitchelton Scott are almost certain to make it hard, hoping for Impey to win the sprint. They will probably get some help from other teams. The only top sprinters who might make it are probably Ewan & Sagan.
So interesting I might stay up and watch it.
If I learned nothing else last year it was not to jump on rolleurs too soon because there are too many good ones all capable of letting us down, Much better to wait until they’ve shown their hand on the GC and Jersey tables before getting them....the trouble is on small stage races like this it can be too late. So often it’s better to keep the sprinter with the pts for one more stage and be sure rather than swap too early
Btw...what channel are you watching it on ?
Agreed Minardi. They could be hard fought couple of intermediate sprints. I just don’t see that they can be ignored by either the sprinters or the GC boys/rolleurs. Small margins in this race.
Very impressive win by Bevin. Def chance for overall imo.
Interesting Stage 1.
Very surprised teams allowed Bevin to get in the break, he is a good outside bet for GC. Lucky for me as I have him in both purist and standard teams
Walscheid with an incredible sprint, he went long into a headwind and only that incredible late run by Viviani stopped an impressive win. Jumbo delivering VanPoppel too early yet again, looked like DVP didn't have the legs either. Philipsen looked good & would probably got 3rd if Bauhaus didn't deliberately block him.
Sagan looked slow, he went backwards in the final sprint, which is very unusual. Tomorrow should suit him better as the final is uphill.
Stage 3 could be the significant stage for both standard and purist. If it stays at the planned distance, we could see most of the sprinters disappear as GC teams make it tough on the finishing circuit. If it is very hot (the forecast is 40+) they might reduce the number of laps of the finishing circuit, that should give some of the sprinters a better chance to go the distance.
I'm hoping it is hot and goes the full distance.
Don’t forget the stage has two early sprints which make it more than a little interesting. Impey and co have declared the need to grab seconds but Viviani and co may also be grabbing those in their fight for the pts jersey. Stage 3 is gearing up to be a really good one.
Yes, it will be interesting to see who goes for those sprints. With a hard day forecast a lot of riders will probably decide to save their energy to ensure they are there at the finish.
I suspect some teams will decide the stage is too hard for their sprinters and use them to try and stop competitors getting bonus seconds, eg. Walscheid, Bauhaus,Mareczko, Van Poppel. As you others like Viviani could be after the points jersey.
We could also see a lot of attacks on the finishing circuit. Before the final 2 climbs there is a very tight hairpin which could be a great point to attack as the peloton slows and stretches out going around the corner.
Whoo-Hoo! Can we end the (purist) season now, please!
Cheers for the heads up about the stages Minardi, I'll change the info on the admin site.
Stage 1.
Forecast to be very windy tomorrow and the lap of the finish circuit has been taken out to avoid the possibility dropped groups interfering with the front group.
This could also signal big problems for some of the GC candidates.
Stage 2.
Extreme heat protocol means the route has been shortened by 29km, a stretch that went through the hills has been removed. This should make is a bit easier for the heavier sprinters.
Overall.
I don't expect Valgren and certain others to be any where near their best, too early in the year for them to be competitive.
It will be interesting to see how the likes of Prades and Ballerini go in their first outings for WT teams. Ballerini was well positioned in the TDU Classic but got caught up in the last corner crash, I fancy him to do well in TDU but he is a bit expensive for a gamble.
Interesting that some teams only arrived last week, whereas others have been in Australia since the end of December. Some riders will be much better prepared for the hot conditions than others.
Doull was sprinting for Sky yesterday because Halvorsen was feeling ill in the heat, the last race where Doull was lead sprinter was Tour of Britain in 2015 , he did very well against a top sprinter field and won the points jersey and finished 4th on GC.
Good luck to everybody for our first outing of 2019.
I think you've covered most of them, Valgren is an interesting one. I fancy him to do quite well. Other cheaper options are Pat Bevin, good Tour of Britain last year; Dries Devenyns always seems to do well here too; and then Wout Poels is cheap, but maybe the race isn't hard enough for him. Really I don't see many people who'll score huge points apart from the big three.
Aye....and that’s part of the beauty of this game. It’s quite easy to discuss who may win a race like this but they can do it without racking up many pts at all until the last day. Winning a small tour, or getting close, is not the same as getting a lot of pts....sometimes...
Not just a case of finishing 1-2-3 either Andy. With time bonuses at all intermediate sprints it would only take two of them to be hell bent on taking the pts jersey (and leaders Jersey for a while) to battle it out and the points will soon rack up. Having said that the likes of Impey and Ulissi may also target those bonus seconds. Sagan and Viviani have enjoyed those sorts of steals in the past whilst Ewan of course could carry all of GC, pts and Youth jerseys for a while. Having said that stages three, four and six may not quite turn out as we’d like with all three at the end if we go that way....although stage three has two intermediate sprints straight out of the traps..
Having said all that though it may just well be that a few teams would happily see UniSA ride off into the sunset and mop up plenty of bonus seconds....Porte for one would gladly see the bonus seconds evaporate I suspect.
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