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Dr Winston.
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January 7, 2019 at 11:04 pm #29263Dr Winston
Here we go again….and just why is Mr Porte so heavily fancied again?…He was stealing a living last season.
He’s definitely the first issue to think about this season for the purist team…isn’t he?
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Dr Winston
Bevin cleared to race today.
Bevin cleared to race today. Confirmed.
MinardiM189
Dr Winston]
Dr Winston wrote:Yes I do think Viviani will go for those sprint pts…and Sagan. Or put it another way…it would suit quite a few GC teams if those two went up the road in a group on a battle for the pts jersey standings and kept Impey well away from the bonus seconds…they certainly wouldn’t fight to bring them back.Got up to 22nd now but it could have been so much better with Ewan. [quote=MinardiM189]
Looks like you have a few transfers left too.
You have managed this race much better than I did. If Ewan hadn’t been relegated I would be much further back.
Dr Winston
Yes I do think Viviani will
Yes I do think Viviani will go for those sprint pts…and Sagan. Or put it another way…it would suit quite a few GC teams if those two went up the road in a group on a battle for the pts jersey standings and kept Impey well away from the bonus seconds…they certainly wouldn’t fight to bring them back.
Got up to 22nd now but it could have been so much better with Ewan.
MinardiM189 wrote:Dr Winston wrote:Damn….Caleb Ewan disqualified and no Viviani is gonna hurt….I went the other way and chose Viviani over Ewan, the relegation for Ewan is great news for anyone who didn’t have him.
Given how close the standard competition can be at the end of the year, this stage could be the difference between winning and losing.
So you think Viviani will go for the intermediate sprint points?
The only way Viviani can win is if Bevin does not finish. I have a feeling Sagan will try and get in the break, we could have both Sagan & Viviani.
I took a punt on Gibbons, which looks like it backfired, it was Gibbons, Sanchez or Guerreiro. Gibbons did as expected but both Guerreiro and Sanchez did better than I expected. Hopefully Gibbons can stay with the group up Willalunga and surprise everbody again, however I expect Guerreiro to be the best of the three tomorrow.
Dr Winston wrote:Damn….Caleb Ewan disqualified and no Viviani is gonna hurt….I went the other way and chose Viviani over Ewan, the relegation for Ewan is great news for anyone who didn’t have him.
Given how close the standard competition can be at the end of the year, this stage could be the difference between winning and losing.
So you think Viviani will go for the intermediate sprint points?
The only way Viviani can win is if Bevin does not finish. I have a feeling Sagan will try and get in the break, we could have both Sagan & Viviani.
I took a punt on Gibbons, which looks like it backfired, it was Gibbons, Sanchez or Guerreiro. Gibbons did as expected but both Guerreiro and Sanchez did better than I expected. Hopefully Gibbons can stay with the group up Willalunga and surprise everbody again, however I expect Guerreiro to be the best of the three tomorrow.
Dr Winston
Damn….Caleb Ewan
Damn….Caleb Ewan disqualified and no Viviani is gonna hurt….
Dr Winston
Ulissi is worth keeping an
Ulissi is worth keeping an eye on as well. Porte has stolen his thunder over the years with five wins in a row but Ulissi’s record is impressive as well.
MinardiM189 wrote:Dr Winston wrote:A really tricky day to call tactically. The four GC boys of Porte, Bennett, Poels and Oods May just end up dragging Sanchez, Bevin, Impey and Ulissi towards the sprint if they do that….would the GC boys not prefer Ewan and Viviani and co to take all the bonus seconds.?….Mmmm…crikey….mmmm again….dunno….you might be right.I have 5 transfers left and beginning to wonder where I will use them all.
I include Impey & Bevin among the GC guys. The climb is nowhere near hard enough to drop them anyway.
Mitchelton Scott could make it a hard start to set up Impey for some time bonuses.
Impey has said tomorrows stage should be ‘interesting’ and that ‘we need to be aggressive wherever we can’.
I have 5 transfers left too.
Dr Winston wrote:A really tricky day to call tactically. The four GC boys of Porte, Bennett, Poels and Oods May just end up dragging Sanchez, Bevin, Impey and Ulissi towards the sprint if they do that….would the GC boys not prefer Ewan and Viviani and co to take all the bonus seconds.?….Mmmm…crikey….mmmm again….dunno….you might be right.I have 5 transfers left and beginning to wonder where I will use them all.
I include Impey & Bevin among the GC guys. The climb is nowhere near hard enough to drop them anyway.
Mitchelton Scott could make it a hard start to set up Impey for some time bonuses.
Impey has said tomorrows stage should be ‘interesting’ and that ‘we need to be aggressive wherever we can’.
I have 5 transfers left too.
Dr Winston
A really tricky day to call
A really tricky day to call tactically. The four GC boys of Porte, Bennett, Poels and Oods May just end up dragging Sanchez, Bevin, Impey and Ulissi towards the sprint if they do that….would the GC boys not prefer Ewan and Viviani and co to take all the bonus seconds.?….Mmmm…crikey….mmmm again….dunno….you might be right.
I have 5 transfers left and beginning to wonder where I will use them all.quote=MinardiM189]
Dr Winston wrote:I think if we want to win a race we have to be prepared to get on riders early and hope they perform as expected…just like Haas and McCarthy…perfectly good picks but if they’re not quite on song then it blows up in our faces…but it doesn’t mean they were bad picks…just early picks. If we want to do well overall for the season it’s far better to wait and accept not winning the race but just doing well in every/most races and grinding it out.Normally I try to leave a bit of flexibility in my team but this time went a bit ‘gung ho’. I compounded it by bringing in Poels for stage 4, my choice of sprinters for tomorrow is now limited.
Hopefully someone makes tomorrows stage slightly crazy.
It starts uphill then the first intermediate sprint is after 47km just after the KoM.
Some teams could go hard from the start, drop the top sprinters and go for bonus seconds with their GC rider. Depending who is in the front group and what the gaps are it could go all the way.
Looking at the course and weather forecast there will be a 20-30kph cross tailwind for the final 40km. Again this could see things go crazy.
[/quote]Dr Winston wrote:I think if we want to win a race we have to be prepared to get on riders early and hope they perform as expected…just like Haas and McCarthy…perfectly good picks but if they’re not quite on song then it blows up in our faces…but it doesn’t mean they were bad picks…just early picks. If we want to do well overall for the season it’s far better to wait and accept not winning the race but just doing well in every/most races and grinding it out.Normally I try to leave a bit of flexibility in my team but this time went a bit ‘gung ho’. I compounded it by bringing in Poels for stage 4, my choice of sprinters for tomorrow is now limited.
Hopefully someone makes tomorrows stage slightly crazy.
It starts uphill then the first intermediate sprint is after 47km just after the KoM.
Some teams could go hard from the start, drop the top sprinters and go for bonus seconds with their GC rider. Depending who is in the front group and what the gaps are it could go all the way.
Looking at the course and weather forecast there will be a 20-30kph cross tailwind for the final 40km. Again this could see things go crazy.
Dr Winston wrote:What do I type into Facebook to watch it?The facebook page is – https://www.facebook.com/globalcyclingnetwork/
or do a search fro GCN and it comes up.
Dr Winston
I think if we want to win a
I think if we want to win a race we have to be prepared to get on riders early and hope they perform as expected…just like Haas and McCarthy…perfectly good picks but if they’re not quite on song then it blows up in our faces…but it doesn’t mean they were bad picks…just early picks. If we want to do well overall for the season it’s far better to wait and accept not winning the race but just doing well in every/most races and grinding it out.
I won two races last season.
Catalunya where I just got lucky by getting on the right rolleur horses early but could easily have gone wrong and left me way down….as it did on the next race…
and
The Vuelta which I won due, in no small part, to the fact I managed to miss two deadlines that turned out to be the right deadlines to miss in view of what I planned and how those riders did…and those were rolleur picks as well that would have done me in…I ended up with about five extra transfers at the end to play around with on the last few stages. A serious bit of luck there.
What do I type into Facebook to watch it?
Dr Winston wrote:He didn’t really enter my head. My 3.0,s of choice were Harper initially due to being 7th (ITT) and 2nd (road) at the Australian championships prior to the TDU. Then my head got turned by Ploeg who was being fancied by quite a few for breakaway duties and then did just that at the classic…so I ended up with him…(both UniSA)….I think I got locked into wondering which one rather than looking at any other choices. …I just got it wrong really for all the right reasons……I had those two too, Harper for the same reasons & Ploeg because he might pick up some sprint points. Picking Ploeg was a mistake.
Like you said earlier, leaving the sprinters in until the puncheurs had showed there cards was the way to go, I ended up with Haas, McCarthy (who are nowhere near their normal form) and Dennis, who also seems to be struggling a bit.
6 points in 2 stages from 3 transfers and my TDU standard is screwed.
I have been watching the race on Facebook , GCN are showing it in Europe (Global Cycling Network) and also on Tiz Cycling.
Dr Winston
He didn’t really enter my
He didn’t really enter my head. My 3.0,s of choice were Harper initially due to being 7th (ITT) and 2nd (road) at the Australian championships prior to the TDU. Then my head got turned by Ploeg who was being fancied by quite a few for breakaway duties and then did just that at the classic…so I ended up with him…(both UniSA)….I think I got locked into wondering which one rather than looking at any other choices. …I just got it wrong really for all the right reasons……quote=MinardiM189]
Dr Winston wrote:@ Minardi….bllx…just what we didn’t want. I see you ditched Viviani as well and now he’s gone and contested those two early sprints….damn…I feared that….I was more tempted to leave Ewan in than Viviani, thinking he might make it to the finish.
My big regret is picking Haas, he was struggling to hang on in the final lap and finished 7s down at the end. For once I should have listened to ‘previewers’ who said Haas looked poor at the Aussie Nationals and probably had no form.
A bit worried by McCarthy too, he hasn’t shown anything so far but hopefully he is saving energy for tomorrow.
Wish I had picked Chris Hamilton from the start, looks like he could win the young rider and finish with a top 10 on GC.
[/quote]Dr Winston wrote:@ Minardi….bllx…just what we didn’t want. I see you ditched Viviani as well and now he’s gone and contested those two early sprints….damn…I feared that….I was more tempted to leave Ewan in than Viviani, thinking he might make it to the finish.
My big regret is picking Haas, he was struggling to hang on in the final lap and finished 7s down at the end. For once I should have listened to ‘previewers’ who said Haas looked poor at the Aussie Nationals and probably had no form.
A bit worried by McCarthy too, he hasn’t shown anything so far but hopefully he is saving energy for tomorrow.
Wish I had picked Chris Hamilton from the start, looks like he could win the young rider and finish with a top 10 on GC.
Dr Winston
@ Minardi….bllx…just what
@ Minardi….bllx…just what we didn’t want. I see you ditched Viviani as well and now he’s gone and contested those two early sprints….damn…I feared that….
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