Brompton stockpiles £1m in parts as contingency for “shit hits the fan” No Deal Brexit

srchar wrote:

don simon fbpe wrote:

srchar wrote:

don simon fbpe wrote:

how bad an idea would it be to scrap these tariffs?

It would be an excellent idea, but we are currently prevented from doing so by dint of our membership of the customs union.

Then what would happen? And we're back to why they are there in the first place.

I don't follow you Don. We're leaving the customs union, which means we'll be free to set our own tariffs. What happens next is up to the government of the day. Readers of this article may prefer to leave tariffs in place on folding bikes, to protect Brompton, set them low or zero on other types of bike in order to make cycling cheaper and therefore more attractive, and set them to a zillion percent on eBikes to stop people arguing about them.

I'm trying to establish how BTBS is so sure that the cost of cycling will fall after Brexit. It won't be imo, as the tariffs are set to prevent the dumping of cheap bikes (good if you're a capitalist) and cost us more to get kit from Europe. Simply the fact of having freedom to set our own tariffs isn't a sufficient answer in my book without knowing why they are there and what the consequences will be if and when they change. of course, there will always be a market for BSOs too.

don simon fbpe wrote:

tariffs are set to prevent the dumping of cheap bikes (good if you're a capitalist) and cost us more to get kit from Europe

How? There aren't any tariffs on goods from other EU member states.

srchar wrote:

don simon fbpe wrote:

tariffs are set to prevent the dumping of cheap bikes (good if you're a capitalist) and cost us more to get kit from Europe

How? There aren't any tariffs on goods from other EU member states.

We won't be a member state after brexit and after the "easiest negotiation ever" there won't be a deal, hence stockpiling and trucks playing around airfields. But at least we'll be out.

don simon fbpe wrote:

srchar wrote:

don simon fbpe wrote:

Why would the EU impose such a tariff?

Protectionism, which I don't find as distasteful as many free-market economists.

However, when you're forcing everyone to pay more for their food than they otherwise would, in order to keep the inefficient French farming industry afloat, and your central bank sets monetary policy with the sole aim of keeping German manufacturing dominant, it starts to taste rather sour.

Given that btbs is promoting cheaper cycling in a no deal brexageddon, how bad an idea would it be to scrap these tariffs? And we've touched on the currency fluctuations as being a bit too risky. How are we going to achieve this cheap cycling utopia?

Where did I say "cheaper cycling"? I said that the tariffs will reduce and that the pound isn't necessarily going to get worse (based on previous shit hitting the fan situations) whilst Brompton will have greater opportunity for new business as even the UK tries to get more people on bikes, never mind international sales. They've had a significant upturn DESPITE the Brexit vote and all the fall-out from that.

However Brompton have at the very least cost themselves 5% additional costs upfront at the least (not including notional losses due to the large sum spent on stock). It's a considered risk/contigency but based on what, that the pound is going to slump further? It's certainly not going to be supply chain as mentioned, that's laughable nonsense even worse case scenario unless their suppliers have a complete factory shut down/ship sinks or we go to war, basically biblical events and extremely rare scenarios that would/could occur and zero to do with Brexit. 

But please tell us where I said cheaper cycling, maybe you think inflation doesn't exist either?

srchar wrote:

However, when you're forcing everyone to pay more for their food than they otherwise would, in order to keep the inefficient French farming industry afloat

have you travelled much? I have, and groceries in the U.K. are generally a lot cheaper than any other similarly developed country. France, for example, is at least 25% more expensive for the average shopping basket, and so is North America in my experience. As soon as anyone trots our lines like yours I just assume they get their opinions from the latest moggmentum press release

Nick T wrote:

have you travelled much? I have, and groceries in the U.K. are generally a lot cheaper than any other similarly developed country. France, for example, is at least 25% more expensive for the average shopping basket, and so is North America in my experience. As soon as anyone trots our lines like yours I just assume they get their opinions from the latest moggmentum press release

Yes, lots. Not my experience at all. Did you not visit a Carrefour, Lidl or Walmart? More a Whole Foods person?

srchar wrote:

Nick T wrote:

have you travelled much? I have, and groceries in the U.K. are generally a lot cheaper than any other similarly developed country. France, for example, is at least 25% more expensive for the average shopping basket, and so is North America in my experience. As soon as anyone trots our lines like yours I just assume they get their opinions from the latest moggmentum press release

Yes, lots. Not my experience at all. Did you not visit a Carrefour, Lidl or Walmart? More a Whole Foods person?

I’ve lived in France so I’m familiar with all things monoprix, carrefour, super U etc thank you very much. I rarely eat strawberries in France when they’re sold for 10€ per punnet in those shops, I haven’t tried Lidl over there and I’ve never been to one in the U.K. either - I gather they are very cheap in the U.K. though, which is handy for my argument. Not just food either, cosmetics are vastly cheaper in the U.K. than either France or the US. My girlfriend would spend $50 on dry shampoo from Sephora in San Francisco, that’s under a tenner here. 

Trader Joes was my local in the US, I went to Whole Foods from time to time if passing though. Both pricier than Tesco in my experience. 

Nick T wrote:

srchar wrote:

Nick T wrote:

have you travelled much? I have, and groceries in the U.K. are generally a lot cheaper than any other similarly developed country. France, for example, is at least 25% more expensive for the average shopping basket, and so is North America in my experience. As soon as anyone trots our lines like yours I just assume they get their opinions from the latest moggmentum press release

Yes, lots. Not my experience at all. Did you not visit a Carrefour, Lidl or Walmart? More a Whole Foods person?

 

I’ve lived in France so I’m familiar with all things monoprix, carrefour, super U etc thank you very much. I rarely eat strawberries in France when they’re sold for 10€ per punnet in those shops,

I still do live in France, and the Strawberries are a good example of the difference between UK and French shops: French shoppers tend to respect the seasons. In Spring they live on cherries and strawberries when they are cheap, in Summer its melons and courgettes, and in winter, cabbages and cauliflower. Strawberries in winter, just like cauliflowers in May are extortionate. British shoppers in contrast, expect to buy their plastic wrapped baby corn at any time of year, flown from the far east or South America and fcuk the planet. Follow the French example here and food is cheaper than the UK. Try to live like a Brit, and money won't go far. 

Griff500 wrote:

 Follow the French example here and food is cheaper than the UK. Try to live like a Brit, and money won't go far. 

I’ll pass this advice on to my French family members who’ve lived in Paris all their lives

Nick T wrote:

srchar wrote:

However, when you're forcing everyone to pay more for their food than they otherwise would, in order to keep the inefficient French farming industry afloat

 

have you travelled much? I have, and groceries in the U.K. are generally a lot cheaper than any other similarly developed country. France, for example, is at least 25% more expensive for the average shopping basket, and so is North America in my experience. As soon as anyone trots our lines like yours I just assume they get their opinions from the latest moggmentum press release

We were subsidising our own farmers long before we joined the EU. It is totally wrong to pin farm subsidies as an EU invention. Moreover our own farmers have made it clear to their Conservative MPs that they require subsidies to continues pots Brexit! (We subsidise our own to drive Range Rovers, we subsidise French farmers to drive Berlingo vans. Go figure.)

srchar wrote:

don simon fbpe wrote:

BehindTheBikesheds wrote:

Given most parts come from outside the EU and it'll cost less to buy from outside the EU post leaving 

Go on, how will that work?

The EU mandates import duties on bikes and bike parts. I can't remember the exact figures off the top of my head, but it's something like 15% for bikes and 5% for parts.

One would hope that the UK government would see fit to lower import duties post-Brexit in order to improve competitiveness.

Nail head hit, as in this is the inherent issue/attitude which has landed us in this mess.... all the logic and good reason and intent behind the portion of 17million voters who did not get fooled by a bus sign and yet still voted to leave.... "ONE WOULD HOPE THAT THE UK GOVERNMENT could would should  be able to project manage the ginormous without precedent project of leaving the EU right for just once..'oh yes' says Nigel Farage, 'of course we can... if a pissed up fool like me can make a living with one storyline for 10years, then we can do anything'

Of course if anyone had stopped to think prior to that referendum, when has any political persuasion of government in recent years managed any 'project' on time, without compromise, or general fuckwitedness.. I still cringe when I remember Holyrood being built...  which was costed out to a £40m spend for a 'new parliament in Scotland' to be built.. and was delivered three years over time and at a cost of a whopping £414m (that's not a typo).. (yes I know it's Scottish, but it's a great example). Stopping mid-rant cause I'm boring myself.

peted76 wrote:

srchar wrote:

don simon fbpe wrote:

BehindTheBikesheds wrote:

Given most parts come from outside the EU and it'll cost less to buy from outside the EU post leaving 

Go on, how will that work?

The EU mandates import duties on bikes and bike parts. I can't remember the exact figures off the top of my head, but it's something like 15% for bikes and 5% for parts.

One would hope that the UK government would see fit to lower import duties post-Brexit in order to improve competitiveness.

Nail head hit, as in this is the inherent issue/attitude which has landed us in this mess.... all the logic and good reason and intent behind the portion of 17million voters who did not get fooled by a bus sign and yet still voted to leave.... "ONE WOULD HOPE THAT THE UK GOVERNMENT could would should  be able to project manage the ginormous without precedent project of leaving the EU right for just once..'oh yes' says Nigel Farage, 'of course we can... if a pissed up fool like me can make a living with one storyline for 10years, then we can do anything'

Of course if anyone had stopped to think prior to that referendum, when has any political persuasion of government in recent years managed any 'project' on time, without compromise, or general fuckwitedness.. I still cringe when I remember Holyrood being built...  which was costed out to a £40m spend for a 'new parliament in Scotland' to be built.. and was delivered three years over time and at a cost of a whopping £414m (that's not a typo).. (yes I know it's Scottish, but it's a great example). Stopping mid-rant cause I'm boring myself.

Indeed. Brexit was a vote against something, not for something. Lots of people voted for what they wanted, not what was offered. As someone said, it was like a vote to paint the room a different colour without agreeing what the new colour would be. Lots of people seemed to assume they would get their desired outcome but instead we haven't a clue what the hell we'll get and there's a strong possibility it will be an extreme of Corbynista left or Moggish right that actually very few people wanted.

The Holyrood criticism is a bit unfair on project management grounds - that particular design was never a £40m building. But it does say something about politicians and voters more generally - that the former think the latter will only vote for too-good-to-be true promises about how cheap and easy it will all be and that the reality of hard work, focusing through detail, and making choices and compromises won't win votes. I think Brexit tend s to support that view.

Duncann wrote:

As someone said, it was like a vote to paint the room a different colour without agreeing what the new colour would be. Lots of people seemed to assume they would get their desired outcome but instead we haven't a clue what the hell we'll get and there's a strong possibility it will be an extreme of Corbynista left or Moggish right that actually very few people wanted.

Probably the best analogy I have heard Sir!  We all knew what we had wasn't white, it certainly had beige tinges,  but ask 4 Brexiteers what colour they voted for and you will get 5 different answers.

peted76 wrote:

srchar wrote:

don simon fbpe wrote:

BehindTheBikesheds wrote:

Given most parts come from outside the EU and it'll cost less to buy from outside the EU post leaving 

Go on, how will that work?

The EU mandates import duties on bikes and bike parts. I can't remember the exact figures off the top of my head, but it's something like 15% for bikes and 5% for parts.

One would hope that the UK government would see fit to lower import duties post-Brexit in order to improve competitiveness.

Nail head hit, as in this is the inherent issue/attitude which has landed us in this mess.... all the logic and good reason and intent behind the portion of 17million voters who did not get fooled by a bus sign and yet still voted to leave.... "ONE WOULD HOPE THAT THE UK GOVERNMENT could would should  be able to project manage the ginormous without precedent project of leaving the EU right for just once..'oh yes' says Nigel Farage, 'of course we can... if a pissed up fool like me can make a living with one storyline for 10years, then we can do anything'

Of course if anyone had stopped to think prior to that referendum, when has any political persuasion of government in recent years managed any 'project' on time, without compromise, or general fuckwitedness.. I still cringe when I remember Holyrood being built...  which was costed out to a £40m spend for a 'new parliament in Scotland' to be built.. and was delivered three years over time and at a cost of a whopping £414m (that's not a typo).. (yes I know it's Scottish, but it's a great example). Stopping mid-rant cause I'm boring myself.

 

 

My fear is that without tariffs, the likes of Brompton wouldn't exist. So much for supporting British manufacturing.

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/61207nH%2BgUL._SL1000_.jpg' alt='IMAGE(
https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/61207nH%2BgUL._SL1000_.jpg)' />
Anyone for a top quality Chedech?
I though part of the confused argument was to not give give Johnny Foreigner our jobs and money. Can you sort yourselves out, please?

don simon fbpe wrote:

peted76 wrote:

srchar wrote:

don simon fbpe wrote:

BehindTheBikesheds wrote:

Given most parts come from outside the EU and it'll cost less to buy from outside the EU post leaving 

Go on, how will that work?

The EU mandates import duties on bikes and bike parts. I can't remember the exact figures off the top of my head, but it's something like 15% for bikes and 5% for parts.

One would hope that the UK government would see fit to lower import duties post-Brexit in order to improve competitiveness.

Nail head hit, as in this is the inherent issue/attitude which has landed us in this mess.... all the logic and good reason and intent behind the portion of 17million voters who did not get fooled by a bus sign and yet still voted to leave.... "ONE WOULD HOPE THAT THE UK GOVERNMENT could would should  be able to project manage the ginormous without precedent project of leaving the EU right for just once..'oh yes' says Nigel Farage, 'of course we can... if a pissed up fool like me can make a living with one storyline for 10years, then we can do anything'

Of course if anyone had stopped to think prior to that referendum, when has any political persuasion of government in recent years managed any 'project' on time, without compromise, or general fuckwitedness.. I still cringe when I remember Holyrood being built...  which was costed out to a £40m spend for a 'new parliament in Scotland' to be built.. and was delivered three years over time and at a cost of a whopping £414m (that's not a typo).. (yes I know it's Scottish, but it's a great example). Stopping mid-rant cause I'm boring myself.

 

 

My fear is that without tariffs, the likes of Brompton wouldn't exist. So much for supporting British manufacturing.

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/61207nH%2BgUL._SL1000_.jpg' alt='IMAGE(
https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/61207nH%2BgUL._SL1000_.jpg)' />
Anyone for a top quality Chedech?
I though part of the confused argument was to not give give Johnny Foreigner our jobs and money. Can you sort yourselves out, please?

I quite like that Chedech - a carbon folding bike. Does Brompton do one? Not actually looking to buy a folding bike, but I'm always intrigued by the designs of them.

BehindTheBikesheds wrote:

typical panic reaction

I'd say it's sound contingency planning and, essentially, a bet worth placing; due to our comedic politicians, nobody knows what shape Brexit will take even at this late stage. IMHO, the government would be mad to try to process every inbound lorry if they've not put a workable system in place by the end of March; goods should continue to roll through the ports unimpeded, however there's always the chance that the government will f*ck it up. I'm an optimist about most things, but this is the UK government we're talking about.

I also have my eyes on the ground. I'm not going to go into too much detail, because I wouldn't fancy being identified and dogpiled, but I own and run a small IT consultancy based in the City and have a part-share of two widget-manufacturing businesses based in the provinces. Business has never been better; EU sales have shrunk a little as the Eurozone enters recession, but sales to the US and Canada have more than doubled as we've become cheaper while maintaining quality, and the Chinese more expensive while still shipping junk. All three businesses have taken on more staff and increased staff remuneration and, if the trend holds up, at least one of the manufacturing firms will be investing in plant and, yes, we will be buying British. Big Business loves the EU and the barriers to entry it throws up; SMEs that make up the bulk of UK GDP, not so much.

When you're consuming the reportage of our broadly pro- Big Business news media, don't forget to follow the money...

BehindTheBikesheds wrote:

Still don't see how this is going to effect the supply chain, that has no lofgic behind it?

Given most parts come from outside the EU and it'll cost less to buy from outside the EU post leaving this is a bit of a risk, unless they beleive that the pound will drop massively in the near future?

Remember what happened in 2008 when all the analysts got it completely wrong, remember how the pound bounced back, suppose none of you remember when the travel shops were offering 96-97p to 1 Euro?

They already saw an upturn post Brexit announcement, what makes them think this is going to dramatically change? Isn't there going to be greater demand for bikes due to finances of families/individuals, the pushing of motors out of towns and cities, particularly places like London which are having an ultra low emission zone so most people can't afford to run cars and some might actually buy bikes.

Good luck to them whatever happens but it's a typical panic reaction IMHO that has already cost them 5% of the total purchase at the very least.

handlebarcam wrote:

Screw Brompton for their treachery! I shall boycott them and ride to work on my unicorn instead, munching on extremely bendy bananas as I go, and stroking my precious blue passport.

Which pocket are you keeping the passport in?

burtthebike wrote:

Which pocket are you keeping the passport in?

We Brexiteers don't need a passport, because we facking hate facking foreigners. Who'd want to leave this glorious isle?

srchar wrote:

burtthebike wrote:

Which pocket are you keeping the passport in?

We Brexiteers don't need a passport, because we facking hate facking foreigners. Who'd want to leave this glorious isle?

Fair point, but I was more wondering whether the action of stroking it could be misunderstood.

muhasib wrote:

Warehouse owners won't be winners when they have to recruit a whole new workforce as they can't get EU labour to come here anymore.

This is an important question about Brexit - what will employers do when their access to relatively cheap, well-motivated and relatively skilled labour is restricted?

They could invest more in training UK workers/potential workers, or invest more in other productivity improvement (e.g. IT, automation, leaner processes) - which would be good.

Or they could pass on their own increased costs to consumers, or perhaps even (depending on their business) move activity overseas - which would be bad.

The answer is almost certainly all of the above depending on cirumstances - but the balance will be critical.

Duncann wrote:

This is an important question about Brexit - what will employers do when their access to relatively cheap, well-motivated and relatively skilled labour is restricted?

Indeed it is. We will see a lot of investment in automation and an accompanying increase in productivity; hopefully it'll be UK companies supplying the kit too, as we are generally very technologically capable (UK.gov IT excepted). Productivity has been on its arse in developed economies for years because it has always been cheaper to simply import more cheap labour.

NPlus1BikelightsNJerseys wrote:

The only winners from Brexit are warehouse owners. No doubt part of the 52%.

 

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burtthebike wrote:

NPlus1BikelightsNJerseys wrote:

The only winners from Brexit are warehouse owners. No doubt part of the 52%.

 

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NPlus1BikelightsNJerseys wrote:

The only winners from Brexit are warehouse owners. No doubt part of the 52%.

And Brompton, who have increased their overseas sales thanks to a weaker pound.