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Jonas Vingegaard won the Giro d’Italia with ease. For him and Visma-Lease a Bike, the race went pretty much to script. The Dane won every summit finish bar one which went to his teammate Sepp Kuss, took time on his closest rivals in the race’s only time trial, and was never dropped throughout the three weeks. He is now only the eighth male rider to have won all three Grand Tours.
And yet, the consensus is that he will still be second-best to Tadej Pogačar at the Tour de France. We’ve seen a theme ever since the Slovenian changed coach at the end of 2023. Pogačar’s last mountain domestique, once Rafal Majka but last year Jhonatan Narváez, sets a raging pace from which the Slovenian launches a sustained 30-60 second acceleration that Vingegaard follows, falters, looks back, and then drops from, consigned to pursuing in vain. Nowhere was this more evident than the Hautacam at last year’s Tour de France. There’s also no evidence to suggest this summer will be any different. From his 11 days of racing so far, Pogačar’s only ‘defeats’ have been a second-place to Wout van Aert, and a Romandie prologue and bunch sprint lost to Dorian Godon. None of those results will keep the Slovenian up at night in July.
Vingegaard might even find himself in a dogfight with Paul Seixas, the youngest Tour *debutant* since the Second World War, let alone a GC contender.
So, if the predictions come true, and Vingegaard is once again off the top-step of the podium in July, what should he do next?
During the Giro, Vingegaard admitted he can’t see himself riding until he’s 35, but added that he still wanted to ‘tick off’ the remaining races he hadn’t won. But in terms of major stage races, only Romandie and Suisse are ‘unwon’. The same goes for Pogačar who fully intends to tick them off this year. And let’s face it, Vingegaard is not the sort of rider we’re likely to see at the Tour of Guangxi anytime soon.
The Dane could dabble in one-day races. The next two World Championship courses are hilly, and both Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Il Lombardia suit his rider profile. Except he’s just not been very good at them.
His best result is a 14th in Lombardy in 2021 (before he even won a Grand Tour) and he hasn’t ridden any Monument since 2022. In fact in the last three and half years Vingegaard has raced just two one-day races, and they were both DNFs. So such a career pivot doesn’t seem likely.
> Has the Giro d’Italia lost its spark?
Maybe we’ll see Vingegaard start plotting his calendar in opposition to Pogačar. He could believe he can still beat all his other competitors when his strongest rival is ripping up Flemish cobbles or sick of the rigmarole of stage racing. Or, with a bit of team pressure, will Vingegaard be obliged to ride the Tour de France year after year, as Visma-Lease a bike’s best hope of another Tour victory? With Simon Yates’ retirement, Sepp Kuss’ lack of ambition regarding team leadership, and other talents such as Davide Piganzoli and Jorgen Nordhagen still developing, the Dane might not have much choice for a little while yet. But to win in Paris he’ll have to cross every muscle for everything going right, and, for Pogačar or Seixas, something going a little bit wrong.
There are other riders from history famed for their second-places. Think ‘Silver Emma’ Johansson or Raymond Poulidor. But rider programmes back then were rather different. A team didn’t have many riders, and wanted their best riders to race. There was also a trust among team managers that riders could effectively train by racing. We still see this in the women’s peloton with team rosters mostly in the teens, compared to 30 riders in the men’s World Tour.
Now, riders are able to take months off in the middle of the year, refining their physical performances for key moments in the season. We haven’t seen Remco Evenepoel since finishing third behind Pogačar and Seixas at Liege. He won’t even bother with a warm-up race before the opening Team Time Trial of the Tour de France. That’s his privilege, and the team’s right. But Vingegaard’s wife has already been vocal in her complaints about the demands of being a pro cyclist and it’s clear Vingegaard himself already has half an eye on life beyond the peloton. In that context he’ll surely want to keep racing rather than slogging away for months up a volcano, keen to strike whilst the iron’s hot. And right now, after practically walking to his fourth Grand Tour title, the iron is very hot indeed.
Medium-length Mild Takes is a couple of minutes where I try and offer a considered opinion on something in the world of cycling. I can’t quite guarantee when you can expect to see my face on your screen (lucky you) but the aim of this piece is not just banal content creation, but also something that informs and just maybe entertains.
And because my job title is still that of a news writer, I’ll be laying out my journalistic ‘wisdom’ (note the sceptical quotation marks) in written form as well… here in fact
9 thoughts on “Vingegaard’s Giro canter proves he’s the 2nd best cyclist in the world”
I gave up readin when you said Vinny could be in a dogfight with Seixas – nothing like journalist hyperbole for a rider who hasn’t even completed a Dauphine length stage race let alone a three-week Grand Tour.
@Surreyrider
Last year he didn’t just ride a Dauphiné-length stage race, he rode the Dauphiné, finishing a creditable eighth.
@Rendel Harris Ha! OK not ridden a GT (must do better with my research rather than working). He’s just not at Vinny’s level over three weeks yet – and who knows, may never be.
@Surreyrider Just as you can’t say he is at JV’s level over three weeks, as he’s never ridden three weeks you can’t really say he won’t be, either. Remember a certain young Slovenian who had never ridden longer than a seven-day race before he went in for the Vuelta in 2019? He ended up third and went on to win the Tour the next year, I wonder what happened to him?
You can only beat who turns up.
Unless Pog turns up.
Anyone can have a bad day.
The TDF GC looks set to be a close battle.
Vingegaard could well be in the shape of his life. And so could Pogacar.
On the face of it Pogacar is probably favourite, but so much can happen :
punctures, a missed break in crosswinds, extreme heat.
Other riders such as Seixas could come into the reckoning.
Let’s just hope it’s a good contest and isn’t decided by illness, injury, crashes.
TBH, I find the individual stage wins more interesting than the GC battle; although the GC often sets the stage agenda.
A volcano could be a good place to get your iron hot.