People should cycle to work and avoid public transport if possible to help stop the spread of Covid-19 in the coming months, a Government adviser has said.
Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the Government’s new and emerging respiratory virus threats advisory group (Nervtag), urged members of the public to not wait for Government guidance and to act if they are worried about rising Covid cases.
Prof Openshaw told BBC Breakfast: “I think take matters into your own hands. Don’t wait necessarily for Government policy.
“I’m very, very reluctant now to go into crowded spaces because I know that roughly one in 60 people in a crowded space are going to have the virus.
“If you can, cycle to work, don’t go on public transport.
“I think do everything possible in your control to try to reduce transmission. Don’t wait for the Government to change policy.
“The sooner we all act, the sooner we can get this transmission rate down, and the greater the prospect of having a Christmas with our families.”
The professor, who was speaking in a personal capacity, said he feared another lockdown at Christmas if action wasn’t taken immediately, the i newspaper reports.
“We all really, really want a wonderful family Christmas where we can all get back together.
“If that’s what we want, we need to get these measures in place now in order to get transmission rates right down so that we can actually get together and see one another over Christmas,” he said.
His comments come amid increasing pressure on the Government to introduce more public health measures to tackle the spread of coronavirus.
Health Secretary Sajid Javid said this week that new cases could reach 100,000 a day but Downing Street insisted there was still spare capacity in the NHS and that Plan B would only be activated if it came under ‘significant pressure’.
46 thoughts on “Cycle to work to reduce coronavirus risk, says Government adviser”
Damn, the headline gave me
Damn, the headline gave me hope, but then the article gave me the information that my bike/train/bike commute may not be the best option.
Covid was the push I needed:
Covid was the push I needed: I’d had a couple of years where I’d cycle one or two days per week and get the bus the others. Late February 2020 was when things started getting weird for me, when you could watch an entire bus full of people all twitch like Clouseaus boss if someone coughed, and it was the push I needed to get me back on the bike full time. I haven’t got to work any other way since then.
(Small office, just me in the office as my colleagues worked remotely anyway, and no room at home for a big duplexing laser printer, so I’ve never worked from home).
Me too (tho went from 5x bus
Me too (tho went from 5x bus to 2x cycle and 3 days at home). And feeling the benefit: if I don’t ride to work (when isolating) the weekend rides seem more difficult.
Top mention of Ch Insp Dreyfus by the way.
I’ve gone the other way –
I’ve gone the other way – from cycle commuting come rain or shine, to working remotely most of the time. I never considered my commute exercise when I was doing it every day, but I notice it now…
Without an analysis of the
Without an analysis of the comparative risks the advice is just hot air. I’m not saying it is necessarily wrong, but it needs to be substantiated. Moreover, understanding the risks of cycling along commuter corridors during the rush hour would be instructive for the government in any event.
Seems reasonable advice if
Seems reasonable advice if people are feeling scared, but the overall trajectory of infections isn’t clear at the moment. I think the government is following the correct line for the time being and shouldn’t panic into taking additional measures which could backfire in terms of public confidence. That said, people should be precient of the increasing numbers of infections.
Just to reassure people, there were 2 people in my household that contracted Covid in the last 2 weeks, one had no symptoms and the other had a minor sniffle. I personally didn’t even contract it – hard to tell if that’s because I’d had it before without knowing it or simply because my immune system and fortitude overcame it before it infected me.
I’ll be having a “wonderful family Christmas” regardless of what these people instruct me to do.
Nigel Garage wrote:
Typing or uttering a sentence like that when the country is in complete meltdown is tragicomic. You probably think that the covid-related deaths are an invention of the media. Enjoy your wonderful christmas and thank your for the reassurance based on your extensive data.
WeLoveHills wrote:
I think the government is following the correct line
— WeLoveHills Typing or uttering a sentence like that when the country is in complete meltdown is tragicomic. You probably think that the covid-related deaths are an invention of the media. Enjoy your wonderful christmas and thank your for the reassurance based on your extensive data.— Nigel Garage
Complete meltdown is a bit strong, unless you mean generally, rather than specifically due to covid. Covid cases currently 3rd in importance to my mind.
1) global warming
2) food production and supply issues
3) covid
4) economy
5) increasingly authoritarian legislation
You forgot the most important
You forgot the most important problem : overpopulation.
Too difficult to even mention let alone propose solutions.
Bungle_52 wrote:
Not really. Ensure that women have full access to reproductive health care and full bodily autonomy, and foster a cultural acceptance of equality.
Also ensure that women can be truly financially independent at all stage of life
Providing unfettered access to education at all stages of life contributes massively towards this.
Given the choice, most women don’t want massive families (not my opinion, bourne out by numerous studies.)
In “the west” we are experiencing lowering fertility rates – This may be partly due to environmental factors, however there is also the point that many people are now opting for a child-free life.
UN figures suggest that as more of the world’s population are being lifted from poverty, educated and gaining access to reproductive health, population growth is slowing to an estimated peak of around 11b in 2100. A 2020 Lancet study suggested around 9b in the mid-60s followed by decline.
So, population clearly has an impact on gross consumption, and it is very difficult if not impossible to control directly (unless your name is hugo drax…). That is not the same as it being an insurmountable problem.
Bungle_52 wrote:
But the only thing we can impact is birth rate, because no one is suggesting bumping people off, the problem is that in developing nations life expectancy is rapidly increasing, therefore even with birth rates at replacement levels (2 per woman, not some sort of one out one in permit system) global population increases as older age groups reach the same numbers that have always existed in younger age groups.
Therefore any action on overpopulation, targetting birth rates can only have a significant impact 40+ years from now.
Of course many developed countries will be reluctant to attamept to reduce birth rates as they are generally having less than one child per woman, and the worry about falling population and the problems that brings in the future.
I reckon it might well be the
I reckon it might well be the other way round.
Those countries with falling birth rates and shrinking working age population are likely to weather the upcoming job automation storm more easily than those countries with increasing populations of working age.
China and Japan are both in the former camp so will be investing heavily in automative (word?) technology meaning that progress is likely to be rapid.
Rich_cb wrote:
but having a shrinking working age population is not compatiable with supporting a growing retired population.
Unless of course we revisit what the purpose of automation is. Is it to produce the same amount of stuff with less human effort, and so enabling more free time in the populace, or is it to produce more stuff with the same amount of human effort and thereby make more profits for the shareholders/landowners?
Because as far as I can tell the massive efficiency gains in manufacturing and data handling have not resulted in any reduction in working hours. So we are either wasting this potentially free time with “busy work” or just increased production and consumption.
It is if the working age
It is if the working age population becomes more productive.
Automation delivers exactly that.
The productivity gains in manufacturing may not have reduced hours per worker but they have reduced overall hours worked per unit produced.
The number of workers has fallen as a result of automation while output has been maintained or improved.
In a country with a falling working age population that’s exactly what you need.
Rich_cb wrote:
If producing and consuming more stuff that we don’t need, and using more resources and creating more polution to do so is considered an improvement.
Because everything we produce
Because everything we produce is unnecessary?
Food? Medicine? Housing?
Rich_cb wrote:
It sounds like we’re into the sphere of judging, so I’ll propose KFC, Echinacea and Barratt Homes for room 101. Of course not having a command economy I’m unlikely to prevail over the market demand for these and the people who benefit from selling them.
Jesting aside (and ignoring “downcountry bikes” which are clearly an idea in search of raison d’etre) I think there is a point in that there is nowhere an ideally free market. States (and larger groups) have a raft of measures to try to control what, how much and how we produce. How that all works is well above my capacities; but they do so it’s never inappropriate to question a state’s priorities, their incentives, subsidies, rules etc.
Else why did we bother “taking back control”?
chrisonatrike wrote:
Hey – don’t be dissing Down country!
Bungle_52 wrote:
I’ve got it – helmets!
chrisonatrike wrote:
helmets to reduce population? I think cars might be more effective.
chrisonatrike wrote:
Only if you put the raincover on, and even then…
chrisonatrike wrote:
I’ve been number-crunching the latest hospital Covid admissions and so far, there haven’t been any instances of Covid patients wearing bike helmets which I find to be incontrovertible proof that bike helmets also provide outstanding protection against Covid.
Nigel Garage wrote:
How super, no matter what the facts and the situation in two months’ time you’re going to do exactly as you please. Exactly the sort of selfishness that allows the virus to spread and kill people – just because your household has dodged the bullet, it’s still killed over 140,000 people in the UK.
P.S. Please look up the meaning of the word “prescient” – it doesn’t mean what you think it does – and how to spell it.
Rendel Harris wrote:
A couple of days ago you slated me for pointing out that the UK is an overweight, sickly nation. The reason there have been so many deaths is directly due to this obesity crisis, so you are literally having your cream cake and eating it. I haven’t “dodged a bullet” because I look after myself.
P.s. Prescient means exactly what I wrote (I.e “have the foresight to” in this context), although I did accidentally miss out a letter – so you’re more correct that normal.
Nigel Garage wrote:
How super, no matter what the facts and the situation in two months’ time you’re going to do exactly as you please. Exactly the sort of selfishness that allows the virus to spread and kill people – just because your household has dodged the bullet, it’s still killed over 140,000 people in the UK.
P.S. Please look up the meaning of the word “prescient” – it doesn’t mean what you think it does – and how to spell it.
— Rendel Harris A couple of days ago you slated me for pointing out that the UK is an overweight, sickly nation. The reason there have been so many deaths is directly due to this obesity crisis, so you are literally having your cream cake and eating it. I haven’t “dodged a bullet” because I look after myself. P.s. Prescient means exactly what I wrote (I.e “have the foresight to” in this context), although I did accidentally miss out a letter – so you’re more correct that normal.— Nigel Garage
No, people slated you for you admitting that you fat shamed individuals; and that you thought that that in any way helped address the obesity crisis that we do, indeed, face.
Nigel Garage wrote:
A couple of days ago you slated me for pointing out that the UK is an overweight, sickly nation. The reason there have been so many deaths is directly due to this obesity crisis, so you are literally having your cream cake and eating it. I haven’t “dodged a bullet” because I look after myself. P.s. Prescient means exactly what I wrote (I.e “have the foresight to” in this context), although I did accidentally miss out a letter – so you’re more correct that normal.[/quote]
“People should have the foresight to the rising number of infections”, yeah that makes sense. What you are presumably trying to say is that people should take note of the rising number of infections, and that’s not what prescient means.
If people who look after themselves are not affected by Covid, why was I, a former rugby player with a BMI of 23 who cycles hundreds of kilometres a week, laid flat on my back for a week by it? Why was my triathlete mate with a body fat of 9% even worse?
Nigel Garage wrote:
I think “cognisant” would be a more natural fit in your context – i.e. people should be aware of the current trend in infections, rather than that they should have some foreknowledge of future events.
I meant they should have
I meant they should have foreknowledge of likely numbers going forward, based on the previous experience of covid waves – it can be predicted to some extent through epidemiological projections.
Nigel Garage wrote:
So don’t you understand what “directly” means either?
Obesity, along with other underlying health conditions, significantly alters the probability of needing hospital treatment and death when infected with covid. But it’s not the direct cause of 140,000 deaths. No covid, no excess deaths of obese people beyond the regrettably high toll in normal times.
In fact, obesity doesn’t cause death. It just makes a lot of actual causes of death more likely (heart disease etc).
The thing I don’t understand is why I’m so often surprised when right wing people fall back on the “I’m alright Jack” foundation. I seldom agree with Rich_cb but at least he has a go at some logic.
was meant to say “indirectly”
was meant to say “indirectly” – must have been a phone autocorrect. Looking back I also wrote “Sputh” instead of “South”. I can also confirm I know how to spell that too.
Of course all these silly linguistic pull-ups detract from the conversation, which I’m guessing was the aim.
Nigel Garage wrote:
Proof that even you can’t be bothered to read your own drivel.
Rendel Harris wrote:
Proof that even you can’t be bothered to read your own drivel.— Nigel Garage
Perhaps we should all follow suit.
Nigel Garage wrote:
So the fact that you wrote the opposite of what you meant, and that it was untrue, ought to go uncorrected?
“Typing or uttering a
“Typing or uttering a sentence like that when the country is in complete meltdown is tragicomic. You probably think that the covid-related deaths are an invention of the media. “
Cobblers mate. What melt down? As much as there was a lock down. Bugger all. Yes some restrictions then and some unpleasant situations now but don’t over egg the whole thing please.
Of course you are completely entitled to yopuir opinion but so are others. I for one see the main issue being that we have a health service struggling to cope with normal medical situations. For that reason alone many of us make precautionary decisions.
Aw shucks.
Aw shucks.
Nigel Garage wrote:
I don’t know how much clearer it could be, it’s been going consistantly up for 40 days.
Although, that is not necessarily to say the government is not following the right line. Reports in the times state the modeling expects the numbers to fall sometime in the autumn without taking further action.
With cases currently dominated by secondary school children, this group will be lgaining immunity faster than other groups due to infections and vaccination.
It’s a big call, because if the cases will plateau of their own accord, then continuing as now might be right. (Deaths are only about 6% of total deaths, and no worse than a often see in flu season)
But if cases do coburg to rise as currently, then beat to take action as early as possible.
Your post is surprisingly
Your post is surprisingly accurate, except for the fact that you haven’t noticed figures from the previous couple of days make the current trajectory unclear.
As you mentioned, the fact that school kids are gaining natural immunity will self-limit the spread, and it could well have peaked in the last few days of half term (chart attached, yesterday’s figure was the second lowest in around 2 weeks). Today’s figure should be lower still as usually Monday’s figures are lower due to NHS reporting, we shall see.
Additionally there has been a North-Sputh spread of the virus over the past couple of weeks which has increased the numbers, due to the fact the South is more populous than the North.
Nigel Garage wrote:
From the chart you cite as evidence, only one day shows a lower figure than the same day of the previous week. So forgive if I want more than a single data point to cast doubt on the trend from 40 preceding days.
wycombewheeler wrote:
*Breaking news*, Covid trend turns negative. Nige right again, showing amazing prescience!
Looking forward to Covid rates likely trending downwards throughout autumn.
Nigel Garage wrote:
certainly yesterdays data was very positive. but it also looked good at the start of september as well, before ramping up again.
I hope you are right, but hope for the best and preapre for the worst is not a bad philosophy.
Nigel Garage wrote:
As a secondary school teacher, it very much appears that the government’s plan is to simply let teenagers catch the virus and gain immunity (which wanes over time in exactly the same way as vaccination does). I cannot see any other reason for lifting all school mitigation mandates. and ploughing on in the face of literally thousands of infections of school age children.
This policy does, however, ignore the potential long term effects. There are several students in my school who had the virus at the back end of 2020/21 and still have not returned to school due to ongoing symptoms, and whilst most of the 200+ who have tested positive this year so far have returned at the end of their 10 day isolation period some have not and remain quite badly ill.
And that is to ignore the teachers that have also had to isolate and, in some cases, also been extremely ill … all of which means that education is still being disrupted not only for the the students who are in themselves but all those taught by those teachers.
Two weeks ago, I had three students taken out of one of my lessons as the school had just been advised of positive PCR tests (the entirety of one year group had been advised to have them as a precaution after we had had a large number of positive LFTs and a number of students with serious symptoms), which means I and 26 other teenagers were sharing a room with three people known to be infectious … several of the students also themselves tested positive within a few days possibly, but not necessarily, from that exposure.
Frankly, I am at a loss as to how I still haven’t caught it myself.
Too many of the arguments on both sides are too simplisitc, including on this thread. There was no reason not to open up the whole economy and leave a legal requirement to wear masks in some situations in place (for example), and definitely no reason to lift all restrictions in schools at the same time. It is just way too easy to focus the debate on the numbers and forget that behind those numbers are situations that the government is basically ignoring … or that is what it feels like in any case.
I now return you to your normal broadcast.
I’m sorry, I think I’ve
I’m sorry, I think I’ve wandered into the wrong forum. Should I be using Muc-Off or Swarfega to wash my hands when I come in from my Covid “commute” to Zoom / Teams? And will wearing a full face helment protect me on the bus?
You need
You need
https://www.vyzrtech.com/products/biovyzr
I suppose when you can’t
I suppose when you can’t afford to buy a space-suit…
chrisonatrike wrote:
Not sure, but I do know that you have to sing ‘Daisy Daisy’ twice while you’re doing it.
mdavidford wrote:
I’ve been experimenting with a couple of choruses of this.