Tour de France

Bonkers. 

Shocking day for me...went for jersey pts instead of the break... which included Bardet and Yates. Rubbish. Unlucky with Martinez... i fancied him for today but he looked cooked on the final climb,  but, even so,  i never expected him to wait at the top of that last climb. Good move by Ineos because his descendng looked a lot better than his climbing... i wonder if it was the plan or just something they decided when he couldn't win the stage?

Join the club.

I did my usual aggressive strategy (4 breakaway riders) in the mountains, but only had Geschka and Martinez in the break.

I'm so used to having a high hit rate at picking breakaway riders, I forgot how costly it is when there are so many odd results.  I really don't think it is just the pace, the heat has changed who is strong dramatically.

Strange for Mas. He's usually a really dependable...if unspectacular pick.

I seldom go past three breakaway riders. By seasons end it usually works out, unless it's a day like today with a big break... then it's a rubbish strategy.

5:3 for GC jersey/break/save and 5:3 for sprinters/jersey/save...unless it's three sprint stages in a row.

I normally go for 3/4 only if I think it's a definite break and reckon I know who is likely to win or go for KOMs.  Today I went mad to be fair!  When I'm thinking straight, I'm pretty good at the calculated gambles.  Also, a lack of faith in the top 10 (apart from top 3) made me hesitate to add Bardet or Yates today, which turned out to be a good call.

There is a strategy dilemma atm which I think I got wrong.  I had the £££ to add WVA instead of Martinez today.  With WVA in the team, it makes the sprint stage after the pyrenees really tough if you don't drop Pog (b4 a TT), Ving (b4 a TT) or WVA (b4 a TT)...  Twice now I've not included WVA when it was pretty obviously an error.

Bad luck AND poor decisions.  I need to smash the rest of this race.

Totally hear you about WVA.  It seems like the standard game chasing pack like us are getting it wrong in certain races.

As per the strategy error/dilemma above, I can add WVA with a single transfer and take a hit after the Pyrenees in transfers needed.  But how the feck do we know whether he will have a "rest" today/tomorrow, with a couple of "sprint/punch" finishes and a TT coming up?

Reflection 1:  My calculated gamble strategy means I score higher than most  players (inc. Tony and the Dr) in a lot of races, but is too expensive in the races where I get it wrong.  Should I go Team Sky and just play a more discipined "formula", or can I work out what it is about those races and choose which races to go team Sky in? e.g. I always seem to crash in the Spring Classics and Le Tour.  Why?

Reflection 2:  Has (semi-consciously) trying to close the gap on Tony quicker been the real reason for this crash?

Reflection 3:  Is trying to play a different way to beat such solid players complete madness?

You're prob right.  All that is academic if you miss the deadline!  Hope WVA has a rest now and Martinez does something amazing.

Depends on who you replaced Bardet with.  If they scored or score tomorrow, no problem.

Yeah, the scores need changing.

I ducked out of WVA. Another mistake.

Throw out all the rules about how teams ride GTs.  Assumed with Roglic leaving, they might hold WVA back a bit.  Jumbo might regret the decision, but they made good on their promise to give WVA freedom.

Good call on the sprint btw

Kung's form looked to be waning yesterday (could be the heat), but Simmons and Jungels seem to handle heat OK, so I rate their chances as higher.

The break usually get better support in the heat than the peloton.  That said, if the temps are as predicted, anything could happen today.

Dunno..same for Schachmann, Lampaert and co. 

There are two lots of riders that have had to haul themselves over the mountains for no other reason than getting in the break or having another sprint. Today could go either way. BOH will definitely like the look of today for either Politt or Schachmann. I can see both of Cosnefroy and Jungels trying for a similar short and long attemp at a win from the break.

Mmmm...short list was Teuns and/or Kamna... only one made the break.