Have we finally reached the tipping point?

It's worth noting that as we collectively move toward a future where cars aren't propelled by fossil fuels, cheap vehicles whether new or used are going to cost far more than their internal combustion engined (ICE) counterparts.

ICE vehicles are already considerably higher to purchase now in comparison to pre-pandemic days as manufacturers move away from city cars to SUV's which have a greater profit margin while also removing the lowest specced cars from their ranges. Pre-pandemic the cheapest cars in manufacturers ranges were approx. £13k, now they are approx. £18k.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WYBR0tlPA8&ab_channel=carwow

Been to Bedford today and the High Street and surrounding roads normally horribly busy with cars had a serene quiet about them.

People might be noticing they are getting their streets back.

Car ownership is one thing but vehicle miles is another. And the Guardian has published 2 articles that should be of real concern. Although we know that tyre particles and noise pollution have negative health impacts, these show it is worse than most of us realised:

Car tyres produce vastly more particle pollution than exhausts

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/03/car-tyres-produce-mo...

Traffic noise slows children’s memory development

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/02/traffic-noise-slows-...

But I doubt it will result in action as the right of people to drive wherever and whenever they want is far more important than public health.

Hard to say - I think the post-pandemic picture is still to settle, inflation and supply issues will abate (but when), and the nature of the transition to EVs is still unclear.

The pandemic + current inflation + long-running weak growth in real incomes have helped depress ownership and use levels in recent years. But those things can change - and we want them to, which might bring renewed growth with it.

Ownership and use aren't the same thing, of course. As noted, plenty people in cities have cars but don't use them much. And people may increasingly use cars without owning them (Uber, car clubs, etc.).

I've been driving since 1987 and I've definitely seen a dip since the end of the lockdowns. I'd say that traffic is back to early 90s levels, at least for my occasional trip up the M3 to London. That's very significant as the early 90s was a period of recession with unemployment at around 10% and fewer options for non-car travel. 

Due to peak train fares being ridiculous I drive from south west Hampshire, park in Richmond, and then get the District Line in. Most recent trip it only took me 15 minutes from Richmond train station to the M3, and that was leaving at about 5pm. That's unprecedented in my experience. Even heading into London in the morning I didn't hit stop/start traffic until the first roundabout west of Twickers. 

Out here in the sticks we've been invaded by the WFH crowd, three new families in our street (20 houses) are from London. Big influx at school too due to a new estate going in. Sell London home, buy relatively massive rural idyll, stick £200k in the bank.

There's been a big uptick in people buying classic (80s/90s) cars too, although that's being blunted by fuel prices. Perfectly sensible to run a V12 Jag as a station car if you're only getting the train once or twice a month though. Mileage allowance just about covers the petrol cost. 

Personally, we're still a two car family. I'd love to replace one with a cargo bike but the only route to school is frequented with tipper trucks and their drivers who seem perfectly happy to do 50mph on a rural B-road. 

As someone who was heavily car dependent throughout the pandemic it has been a revelation to move out of the sticks into a city centre once more. My commute has become a 2 minute walk or 10 minute cycle depending upon which workplace I am attending, a cinch in comparison to my previous arrangements, either a 1 hour drive or 35 minute train journey with a 20 minute cycle at the end.

As of the beginning of April I have gone from being a 2 car owner, both SUV's to a 2 bicycle owner (soon to be 3, n+1). Last year I drove 30,000 miles, this year it should be less than 500.

Unfortunately, this doesn't signal the start of a downward spiral for car ownership, but the government have made reducing car ownership one of the cornerstones they promote in achieving net zero by 2050. The aim is to reduce car ownership to below 24m (yes I am trying to find the original source), but as ever it's a woolly idea they can hide behind when they glaringly miss their objectives somewhere down the line.

Personally, unless the government takes a strong lead on this, all we are likely to see is mere percentage point drops rather greater reductions. Whilst motoring is still a vote winner none of the major political parties will make the changes neccessary to affectively make a difference.

Could be, the average car in the UK is parked 96% of the time, according to the RAC Foundation. That sounds like people really don't much like driving, but they don't yet feel able to completely free themselves from car ownership...

I was born and raised in rural Shropshire where availability of public transport is woeful.   Cars will remain key to mobility is similar areas.

It's a different situation in cities and WFH is having quite a effect.   My daughter works for a large corporation based in Mancheste, a job in her team has been offered to someone living in Bristol on the basis they come to Manchester one day a month.   

Similarly a uni friend who was working in London has moved to Chester (where he can afford to buy a house) and is attending the London office once a month.

Cars will still be used for leisure travel but I expect their use for commuting and shopping to diminish together with the practice of each adult member of a household owning a car.

Well, it's about goddamn time

The article also points out that car prices (especially used) have gone sharply up. That seems to indicate that the fall in sales is driven by a lack of supply in the face of undiminished demand, which does not bode so well for a continued decline in car numbers.

It fascinates me when visiting London how many cars are permanently stored on the road. They have clearly been unused for many weeks due to the detritus on them, yet they clearly are too new to be abandoned.

For all its affluence, London shows that public transport infrastructure and cycling makes for a better experience than car usage. Unfortunately, the political will to upgrade the rest of the country to the same standards means that the rest of the country has to endure spending all that money on the misery of driving (and let's admit it, driving is not the fun it was 40 or 50 years ago regardless of supposed infrastructure improvements).

So although there is massive pressure from the car industry, the anxiety of knowing every journey, however short, is a stressfest is the industry's biggest enemy, and the only solution applied, more tarmac, typically generates more problems in the long term as paradoxically it generates the traffic density it is trying to mitigate against.