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'Extreme frustration' after Bristol activists vandalise 150 vehicles
From https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/extreme-frustration-after-bristol-activists-8913213
"We are a group of young people angered and fearful of the world we are inheriting. The UN estimate 1 billion climate refugees by 2050, how did Europe cope with a mere 1 million Syrian refugees in 2015?
"Irreversible feedback loops may have already been triggered, or will soon be set off: through the destruction and retreat of the Amazon rainforest, the melting of permafrost in the Artic circle and the bleaching of coral reefs. This could lead to spiralling ecological collapse.
"By now, everyone agrees that the climate crisis is immediate, grave and caused by human activity. Although our means of tackling this issue are not unified.
"After pursuing many democratic avenues in an attempt to affect change: writing to MPs, attending dozens of peaceful protests, working with the Green Party. No real change has occurred.
"In fact we see the opposite: we see the government support 100 new licenses for oil and gas, which led the Parliament’s Public Accounts Committee to say that “the Government has no coordinated plan towards achieving the net zero emissions by 2050 target”. We are left with no other option. If the institutions of power will not affect the necessary change, we must do so ourselves."
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77 comments
Jevon's paradox relies on the price of whatever you're consuming remaining static.
When prices increase, as they have done for fossil fuels, increased efficiency is a tool to return overall costs to their previous lower level via decreased consumption.
A properly administered carbon tax could help to drive this efficiency.
Does it? Not aware of that requirement in any formulations I've seen. Although it's only Jevons paradox if rebound goes above 100% - otherwise it's just reducing what the improved efficiency that would be achieved if nothing else changed.
Is your idea assuming that the amount of consumption will remain static? It may in some cases of course, but empirical observation of rebound suggests that it often doesn't.
Not an economist but as I understand it if you change something you create a new environment. So potentially all the previous
fixedknown or steady values can change as the system (people) re-adapts - it's not just that the world goes on as before but we use less resources for this one process.Of course it might be that our new efficiency saving exactly balances increase in price (as e.g. resource gets scarcer) - but this would be unlikely. It would be possible to set taxes to "take up the slack" also I guess.
EDIT (for clarity I hope...)
The point of Jevon's paradox is that efficiency makes using more of the resource attractive by reducing the opportunity cost.
If you bought a car with double the fuel efficiency the opportunity cost of each journey drops increasing the likelihood of you making a journey.
To be precise Jevon's paradox relies on the opportunity cost falling and this can happen with static prices or rising prices if the efficiency gains outweigh the price rises.
If the price rises outweigh the efficiency gains then the opportunity cost still goes up and usage will go down.
Remind me why 11pm is not my best time for economics (not that there's a good time for me)!
Your summary sounds good ("If the price rises outweigh the efficiency gains then the opportunity cost still goes up and usage will go down".) (for this hour). Assuming demand is elastic.
If demand is inelastic usage may not decrease (much). And if price rises don't wipe out efficiency gains we're on the side of things that Jevons described. (Given that whoever makes the improvement doesn't have a monopoly in the market or on the more efficient process, or there is not a cartel situation - and none of these things are usually very long-lasting - although that's another rabbit hole!).
As Jevons originally stated it was the extra profit which tended to increase the attractiveness of an industry and increase output / reduce prices and fuel demand. Or indeed in related industries (it was demand for energy - coal - he addressed in the original).
Phew! Anyway - I'm pretty sure the general trend of humanity (although with many significant ups and downs) has not been towards "lower environmental footprint" and certainly not "using less resources" (outside of some specific local situations).
Of course we are the cooperative chimpanzee - we could change that. However that would demand a rather high level of agreement / unity (which might be unpalatable). And a much longer term vision than people have generally managed to show. And likely more regulation / "interference in the markets" than our politicians have shown willing or ability to do effectively.
Keep cycling!
Doesn't the UK-India trade deal have a significant bearing on this?
It's certainly notable that the world is not reducing CO2 emissions, but merely slowing the rate of increase of CO2 emissions. It's like the driver of a speeding car claiming that they're not accelerating as fast as they were (but still accelerating none the less).
Atmospheric CO2 concentration integrates sources and sinks. The rate of increase continues to increase (d2[CO2]/dt2 +ve). Chris Packham's view (Channel 4) that it has become 'ethically correct to break the law' in seeking action on reducing ecological degradation is an interesting public development.
This graph probably shows the situation more clearly (from https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gl_trend.html):
I'd agree with Chris Packham. The law is mainly serving unethical interests such as protecting the assets of companies that make profit from destroying the climate. It's unsustainable and we all know it.
It's interesting that for such a complex system an empirical 2nd order polynomial fit to the Mauna Loa data (R2 = 0.9994) gives the annual rate of increase of the increase of 0.026 ppm yr-2 and predicts close to 440 ppm by 2030 and 500 ppm by 2050. When the data starts to drop below the prediction then maybe we can say that effective action is starting to be taken.
UK ecological footprint exceed biocapacity by 240%. The global value is 70% exceedance. Per capita UK footprint is 3.9 ha. There is an awful lot of declining to do.
The point I was making was that our ecological footprint is declining whilst our economy grows.
Which undermines the 'degrowth' argument somewhat.
All growth isn't necessarily so associated but a lot is, because it assumes infinite planetary resources. Last time I checked we didn't have those.
I wonder what the Artic circle is? Is it where they build or store HGVs?
Also, I think the Government are indeed affecting change. They (or their replacement) just need to start effecting it.
When, oh, when, will grassroots protest groups learn to use the 'spelling and grammar' settings in their word processors...?
Maybe I'm being paranoid, but your ellipsis makes me think you've put an intentional error in there somewhere (or, worse, I made an unintentional one!)
His error was to type three dots (...) rather than using the unicode character for ellipsis (…)
Dammit!
Wait - how do you know what he typed? I mean, I know what road.cc is showing me, but... are you ... Rendel Harris too?
he probably did what i just did and tried highlighting the dots with the mouse. The dots highlighting one at a time, whereas the ellipsis highlighted all at once.
If I'm typing into a comment box here on road.cc, how do I type a 'proper' ellipsis, then?
(I've always just done three dots).
Just use the ellipsis key.
That key would be such a good idea.
Unfortunately, I suspect the ellipsis is going to go the way of the apostrophe and the semi-colon…
No it wont people love them.
I don't think apostrophes (single-quotes) or semi-colons are disappearing anytime soon or else there'll be a lot of angry programmers.
Well, they could switch to using e.g. Befunge... oh - we don't want them angry. Hmm... Haskell?
How about using the COW language? (It's Turing complete)
Here's an example of "Hello World" in COW:
On Linux, I can hold down ctrl+shift+u then 2026 then enter.
On Windows, I believe it's:
Press and hold down the Alt key.
Press the + (plus) key on the numeric keypad.
2026
Release the Alt key.
Alternatively, just find the wikipedia page on ellipsis and copy/paste the example one.
Key [option]+[;] on macOS… but then I usually just do three fullstops... not a problem either way…
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