Could the 2025 Tour de France be the greatest bike race ever? road.cc’s panel predicts who’s going to win cycling’s biggest race

It’s that time of the year again, the Tour de France is ready to roll out for the biggest three weeks of the cycling season. One for the traditionalists, the race will be held entirely in France in 2025 and has a flat first-week time trial punctuating punchy hilly stages and sprints, before the Pyrenees and Alps make things quite savage in the second two weeks.

Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard have filled the top two places on the podium at each of the last four editions, the first time that’s happened in the race’s history. We’re expecting more of the same this year, Pogačar looking unstoppable, but his great Danish rival surely coming into the 2025 edition in better shape than after last year’s horror crash in the Basque Country.

> Tour de France 2025, your ultimate stage-by-stage guide

Beyond the GC picture we’ve got one of healthiest sprint line-ups in recent Tour memory, loads of punchy days for Mathieu van der Poel and Co., as well as the usual breakaway stages where underdogs can change their life forever. It’s going to be a wild month, and it wouldn’t be the pre-Tour fever without some predictions.

Luckily we’ve assembled our top team to run the rule over this year’s race. As ever, get your own predictions in the comments and we’ll see whose riding victorious down the Champs-Élysées in three weeks’ time.

Dan Alexander, News Editor

Who’ll be wearing the yellow jersey in Paris? Tadej Pogačar. Crashes or illness aside, he looks unbeatable.

Who else is going to be on the podium? Jonas Vingegaard and João Almeida, the Portuguese rider to pull off the Adam Yates-style third place after following behind once Jonas and Tadej have disappeared into the distance. 

What about the other jerseys? Philipsen to reclaim green, Lipowitz white, Pogačar polka dots.

What do you make of the route? It’s a fun first week, with plenty of classics-style stages and punchy climbs. I’m glad to see the Paris finale back this year, the time trial in Nice just didn’t feel right. Adding the Olympic Games climb of Montmartre will be interesting, but does seem like it could add some unnecessary positioning stress and crash risk. Elsewhere, the mountain triple-header of Hautacam, Ventoux and Col de la Loze is about as good as it gets.

Without wanting to be too much of a doom-monger, I’ve got a bad feeling the fight for position on some of those hectic-looking punchy week-one stages could cause some major crashes and end at least one of the big favourites’ races early. It always happens to some extent, but this year looks like it’ll be an absolute stress-fest. It’s giving me 2014 flashbacks. Froome vs Contador. The big one… until they both crash out and Nibali wins.

How will the race play out tactically? The opening week is deceptively difficult and I could see Pogačar taking yellow as early as on stage two. UAE would presumably want to give the jersey away if that is the case, giving extra importance to any week-one/two breakaway opportunities.

Once we hit the mountains I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pogačar isolated at times. Then again, even if Visma-Lease a Bike have numerical superiority, it doesn’t count for much if the world champion just rides away anyway. Vingegaard’s team are going to have to try and play clever to find a way to beat Pogačar as, on
Dauphiné form alone, it’s hard to see how they can. Crosswinds perhaps? Wout van Aert, Victor Campenaerts and Matteo Jorgenson could do some damage, but then again, Pogačar’s positioning is usually so good he’d probably make the split anyway.

Who could spring a surprise? Florian Lipowitz has been in great form and could take the GC lead at Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe from Primož Roglič. He was the clear third best climber at the Dauphiné and could be an outside bet for the podium. With that said, it’s his first Tour de France so he should probably be allowed to take it all in without any pressure. This time last year Mattias Skjelmose had a very similar profile going into the Tour, it can be a very big step up in practice.

Which sprinter will dominate? Maybe one of them will dominate but I’d predict the stage wins to be shared fairly equally between Jonathan Milan, Jasper Philipsen and Tim Merlier. The fast finishes look very competitive this year.

What are you most looking forward to? The opening week’s punchy climbs should make for exciting racing. From a British perspective, Fred Wright was in great form at the Dauphiné and would be a popular stage winner considering how close he’s gone in the past. My other picks for stage wins are Louis Barré and Iván Romeo, both on Tour debut but absolutely flying.

Ryan Mallon, Senior News Writer

Who’ll be wearing the yellow jersey in Paris? Brace yourself — Jonas Vingegaard will win his third Tour de France this year. I know what you’re thinking. Since he was last defeated by the Dane at the Tour two years ago, Tadej Pogačar has developed, terrifiyingly, into an even greater all-round bike racer, quite possibly the best we’ve ever seen.

He’s also put together, at UAE Team Emirates, a hugely powerful squad packed with grand tour contenders in their own right, which arguably have even now surpassed the might of Visma. And at the Dauphine, errant time trial aside, he looked a class above all his rivals, including Vingegaard, in the mountains.

But… I just see Vingegaard winning. He’s the only rider who has proved he’s capable of beating Pogačar at the Tour, and was improving throughout the Dauphine. The Dane has also focused his entire season on July, unlike the world champion, who spent another spring demolishing everything in sight. Pogačar was flying on the slightly shorter, sharper 20-minute tests on offer at the Dauphine, but I can just see Vingegaard and Visma working him over on the long, high-altitude days in the Alps, where the Slovenian has come unstuck before.

Let’s face it — Tadej Pogačar can win any bike race on the planet. But in an increasingly small handful of them, thanks to the existence of Vingegaard and Mathieu van der Poel, there’s a 50/50 chance he might — might — just lose. Of course, I’m saying all this, and then Pog is going to blow away everyone on the Hautacam and win by ten minutes isn’t he?

Who else is going to be on the podium? After the Pog and Jonas show, Remco Evenepoel will consolidate his podium from last year with another solid third place and maybe a spell in yellow. João Almeida will, after doing his turn on the front for UAE, will carry on to take fourth, while Red Bull-Bora duo Florian Lipowitz and Primož Roglič will round out the top six.

What about the other jerseys? Wout van Aert will win the green jersey by doing Wout van Aert things on all terrain, Remco will take white by default (though Lipowitz could run him close if he gets a crack at GC), and Kévin Vauquelin will attack his way to a popular polka dot triumph.

What do you make of the route? I’m still on the fence, if I’m honest. I grew up watching the Tours of the 2000s, the routes of which were often criticised (rightly so) for their rigid, anti-experimental character. However, the return this year of the Jean-Marie Leblanc patent — a long opening stretch of mostly flat or flattish stages in the northern half of France, before long weekends in the Alps and Pyrenees – almost feels like as much of an innovation as any of ASO’s other all-action grand plans of recent years. Which is good.

The Tour, after all, is about much more than just the yellow jersey contenders. And the first half of the race will enable new, interesting narratives and characters to emerge before Pogi and Jonas knock seven bells out of each other in the mountains.

Or nothing will happen for a week and a half and we’ll all be complaining about how bored we are. But at least the quieter days mean I’ll be able to get out and cut the grass, which is a big plus.

How will the race play out tactically? The old-school route means the race will be a bit of a slow burner when it comes to significant GC action. But I can still see the two super teams — UAE and Visma — using that long opening spell to assert their authority at the front of the bunch, while I wouldn’t at all be surprised if Pogačar took advantage of one of the short stinging climbs that pepper the first 11 days to land a psychological blow on Vingegaard ahead of the real mountains.

If Evenepoel dismantles everyone in the stage five time trial, that could also usher in an interesting dynamic — it will be intriguing to see how the Belgian handles leading the Tour, and how his rivals respond.

But once we hit the mountains, all bets are off. I’m quietly hoping for all-out action every day from Pogačar and Vingegaard in the Pyrenees and on Mont Ventoux, but without either of them really landing a killer blow, leaving the race still in play by the Alps. That may sound optimistic — but both riders are so evenly matched and the conservative tactics of yesteryear have largely been banished, so why not?

Who could spring a surprise? I know a former champion winning a stage should hardly count as a ‘surprise’, but I’ve a sneaky suspicion Geraint Thomas could nab a stage win at his last ever Tour.

And I reckon he’ll do so by rolling back the clock to his pre-GC contending days and infiltrating a breakaway on one of the lumpy transition stages, before soloing clear at the end. I also think Eddie Dunbar is due a decent overall result at the Tour, and his recent time trialling improvements show he’s got the ability to do it, while the in-form Oscar Onley will be the race’s chief animator in the mountains. And Julian Alaphilippe’s going to win a stage isn’t he? He looked back to his old swashbuckling self at the Tour de Suisse — the stage is set.

Which sprinter will dominate? Tim Merlier’s battle with Jasper Philipsen looks set to be one of the defining narratives of the first half of the race. They both look evenly matched, but I see Merlier taking yellow in Lille. However, Wout van Aert, wonderfully resurgent by the end of the Giro, will win the most stages of all the fast men by picking up one or two flat sprints while also blowing the race apart with his good mate Mathieu on the tougher days.

What are you most looking forward to? In terms of stages, the Ventoux — as ever — looms large over everything else, while the brilliant trio of Pyrenean stages should be explosive and potentially race-deciding. But I’m most excited about the fact we’re (hopefully) about to witness two of the greatest Tour de France riders ever, both fully fit, going toe to toe. The last two Tours have come with the caveat that both Pogačar and Vingegaard were ill-prepared in defeat thanks to crashes in the build-up. There are no excuses this time. It’s going to be a cracker.

Emily Tillett, Tech Writer

Who’ll be wearing the yellow jersey in Paris? Tadej Pogačar – it’s hard to look past him this year.

Who else is going to be on the podium? Vingegaard second, Almeida third.

What about the other jerseys? Green/points – Biniam Girmay, KOM – Pogačar, White – Remco Evenepoel, though I think we’ll see a good battle between Remco and Lipowitz, and UAE Team Emirates XRG will win the team classification.

What do you make of the route? This year’s route feels like a return to tradition with all stages in France for the first time since 2020. I’m glad to see the finish back on the Champs Elysees with a sprint, though the Montmartre circuit could still shake up the GC with its three short climbs in the final 40km.

It’s a balanced layout with the first two weeks featuring more sprint and punchy stages, with a longer time trial before the race hits the mountains. I like this dynamic as it means the GC isn’t the sole focus early on. Riders like Van der Poel, Van Aert and Evenepoel could all grab stage wins and we might even see Remco in yellow after the TT.

How will the race play out tactically? I think it’ll be an exciting first couple of weeks with the potential of Remco going into yellow after the 33km TT. Then once the race hits the mountains, it’ll be about whether he can hold on. I think Pogačar and Vingegaard will put up a good battle once it hits the mountains and we’ll see the return of the mountain trains.

Who could spring a surprise? Tobias Holland Johannessen is my pick. He looked strong with a 5th place at the Dauphiné and even though Uno-X isn’t a WorldTour team, he’s shown he’s capable of being up there.

Also, I’m looking forward to seeing what Alaphilippe can do in the opening weeks. The punchy terrain suits him and we might get to see some classic Alaphilippe flair.

Which sprinter will dominate? Tim Merlier is the man to beat in pure sprints but Biniam Girmay is a more rounded sprinter and could be in contention on a wider range of finishes.

What are you most looking forward to? The GC battle in the mountains and seeing how close it’ll be between Vingegaard and Pogačar. But I also think the fight for the final podium spot could be just as exciting.

Liam Cahill, Video Production Lead

Who’ll be wearing the yellow jersey in Paris? Don’t be fooled by the Dauphiné TT scare. Another year, another Pog show. But he’ll have a scare or two.

Who else is going to be on the podium? Jonas and Lipowitz.

What about the other jerseys? The showman Alaphillippe goes on some vibey solo days in the mountains to get a spotty jersey. He’ll wear this with bib shorts, because he’s a good chap. Green will be hard fought but I like Merlier for this year. White goes to Lipowitz and team to Visma.

What do you make of the route? There is a lot to love. Summit finishes galore, a start in Northern France, and that change to the final stage should all be great.

I’d watch out for the Ventoux stage. That region is WINDY and it could be a very hot day. Someone will lose out big time.

How will the race play out tactically? All quiet on the Western GC front until they wake from slumber for the TT. The sprinters and classics men will put on a good show until then. I suspect Pog will take yellow in the TT but give it to a breakaway rider the day after to rest his team for another six days. Then come the Pyrenees where it’ll be crazy hot. Pog will lose time here and Jonas will hope. But I don’t think he’ll have enough to topple the world champ. We’re in for a brilliant race with Van der Poel winning in Paris.

Who could spring a surprise? Thibau Nys. Maybe not a surprise, but he’ll step out from his father’s shadow with a Sagan-esque win.

Which sprinter will dominate? I think the wins will be spread out, but Merlier will edge it.

What are you most looking forward to? A bit of Ventoux after a long hot day, coming off a rest day. A day to tune in for some other-worldly climbing times.

Dave Atkinson, Chief Brompton Crasher

Who’ll be wearing the yellow jersey in Paris? Tadej Pogačar. He looks unbeatable, so unless he ends up in a ditch somewhere along the way or gets the plague, it’s hard to see how he won’t win it at a canter. He’s not the best time trialler but he’s good enough, and one of the TTs is just straight up a mountain which will suit him down to the ground. There are plenty of other tough mountaintop finishes for him to take time too. 

Who else is going to be on the podium? Vingegaard should finish second as he’s easily the strongest of the chasing pack. Past that it’s a bit more fluid. Evenepoel had a good showing in the Dauphiné but I can’t see him staying in contention for the podium over three weeks. João Almeida is capable of a podium but tactically that won’t be UAE’s game. Matthias Skjelmose is good for an each-way bet, as is Florian Lipowitz.

What about the other jerseys? I’d love to see Wout van Aert get the green jersey because I just enjoy the way he rides. Last year’s winner, Biniam Girmay, shouldn’t be discounted even though he hasn’t done a huge amount this season: he’s capable of staying in the mix on much harder stages than the bigger sprinters, and he’ll be consistent. The way the course runs and the way Pogačar races means he’s in with a shout of green as well as yellow. Alaphilippe will be after the polka dot jersey and I for one hope he gets it. Remco Evenepoel might end up stage hunting and in the spots. Again, Pogačar, because of the amount of summit finish points available. I’d like to see Oscar Onley in the mix too.

What do you make of the route? There’s lots to like, we could see the big guns going for yellow as early as stage two, which is always fun as they don’t actually want it then, so might have to manufacture a giveaway on a nothing stage for a bit of a rest.

A Ventoux stage finish is always a treat. It’s a very back-loaded Tour in terms of climbing and the yellow could be hopping around until stage 12 and the first proper GC day. The final stage through Paris seems engineered to have Pogačar crossing the line first in yellow, but I’ll miss all the classic shots of the Champs-Élysées lap. And the sprint.

How will the race play out tactically? This is really hard to say. Some of the early stages have extremely tough finishes and the likes of Van Aert and Van der Poel will certainly be in the mix for yellow for some or all of the first week. Evenepoel and Ganna will fancy their chances of grabbing it on the stage 5 TT too.

Or, the big guns might come to the party early. Stages 12 and 13 will define the course of the race, but even after that there’s still plenty of time for a rider to have a bad day at the office. My head says Pogačar will have it wrapped up by the end of the mountain time trial though.

Who could spring a surprise? Florian Lipowitz is hardly an unknown, but he’s in great form and it would be good for the race if he stays in contention. Matteo Jorgenson is riding really well too.

Which sprinter will dominate? Personally I think it’s Jonathan Milan vs Jasper Philipsen, simply because of how strong and organised those two lead-out trains are. We’ve seen plenty of times this year that if Alpecin-Deceuninck or Lidl-Trek get to the front at the right time there’s not much that can get past them. Merlier is strong though, and especially in the first week the flat stages aren’t easy, so the punchier riders that can handle a climb are in with a shout of being in the mix more often.

What are you most looking forward to? Stage 14. A stone-cold classic Pyrenees stage, with the majesty of the Tourmalet and the tricky Superbagnères finish. A full Saturday on the sofa I think…

There you go. That’s what we think will happen, but get your predictions in the comments so you can come back in three weeks’ time and rub it in our faces! And be sure to check out the rest of our 2025 Tour de France coverage in the meantime.