[David9694]

Strange, isn’t it Germans, Remainers and cyclists looking on grimly at the last few days of driver hysteria. 

The oddest thing is how badly affected London and the south-east are – the best connected area, ranking high among those having most public transport and other travel options. 

As a cyclist, this doesn’t seem like much of an attitude or behaviour changer.  It does reveal to a wider audience a bit about the weird attachment some people have to their cars; how desperation, violence and abuse lurk just below the surface. 

In the short term, fuel shortages mean more frustrated drivers  scratting around for their precious supplies; more danger, more disruption when they find it. 

Unsurprisingly, the anti-LTN voices purporting to be concerned about emergency ambulances remain silent throughout. 

I take no pleasure in any of the chaos as I have elderly relatives who are highly reliant on twice-daily carers. What if it gets so bad that they can’t do their job? Brexiters seem to suggest this is just a patch of turbulence,  a necessary temporary sacrifice on the way to the sunny uplands. I guess we’ve all got to tighten our belts and believe a bit more strongly. 

As a remainer, petrolgate feels highly potent – whether we on here like it or not, as a politician, you upset the driver lobby at your peril.  Brexit, in the form of not enough drivers is hitting a lot of people in a place it really hurts. “Sort it” will be the terse message from local MPs to the PM. 

Yes I know, it’s an area that had issues before – but one of several where Brexit has been randomly chucked in with no plan.  I get a sense of some parts of industry being inert and saying to the govt – “your mess…”

Sarah Everard  – It’s not the time to highlight this more broadly, but there are parallels at so many levels with road violence and the fight against both. 

The car as a facilitator of the patriarchy might sound a bit far fetched, but a car was a vital tool in perpetrating this terrible crime.  And countless others perpetrated by men against women and girls at a range of levels.  Yes, Against me when I’m cycling – that’s a parallel, a shared interest in countering bullying and worse.

The issue is evderday-ised, trivialised so it goes largely unnoticed.  Victims need to take greater care, more precautions.  Flag down a bus  – how very London.  I haven’t yet heard anyone say “what was she doing out on her own at that hour – silly girl” but you can bet plenty are thinking it.  The police response in the news, despite their having months to think about it, is so far bumbling and inappropriate.  Any “I know my rights” miscreant now has an ideal excuse to evade arrest. 

There are so many things that, as brought home by the e-scooters, could be done to make cars less dangerous, but drivers’ freedoms and privileges matter more than any safety or even crime reduction argument.  We could have black boxes that mean a car won’t go if it is abused in any way, that can’t exceed the speed limit – but we invest instead in ever more roads. 

I’m not qualified to say what needs to change as regards women’s safety and freedom: I’m not going to try and mansplain that one, although men have a major part to play in effecting change. It’s a time to listen, listen to women.

Topic

[Anonymous]

Consumption isn’t normal, it
Consumption isn’t normal, it’s been reduced because people are deferring non-essential car journeys due to fuel anxiety. So your point doubly stands, and something doesn’t add up.

[mdavidford]

But if consumption is normal,

But if consumption is normal, and deliveries are normal, then you get back to the normal state of equilibrium, with the only difference being that everyone’s driving around with a full tank. Even if a handful of stations then have issues because of driver shortages, that can’t trigger a fresh round of panic buying, because everyone’s tank is already full.

[David9694]

I forget how many of us it

I forget how many of us it served, but my student Union laundrette had 6 washing machines and 5 tumble dryers. No-one stayed while their stuff went round and if you arrived and found a washing machine that had finished, it seemed to be ok to unload it into a basket and get your stuff started. 

I think the same set of social issues needs to be solved with EV charging points.  

[chrisonabike]

Generally agree.  Lots of

Generally agree.  Lots of studies report that this is the most frequent opinion – given by people who don’t cycle – as to what’s putting them off. Like everything “it’s a little bit more complicated than that” of course. I don’t think cycling is something most people currently consider much as a regular mode of transport.  Even if cycling was regularly on people’s mental “list of options”, where driving is as easy as cycling then people drive if they have a car. I’d say about everywhere in the UK it is easier to drive. Once in the car people tend to keep using it for additional journeys.  I think that’s the real lesson of “they built it and they didn’t come” e.g. Milton Keynes.

We have to be careful about people’s reports of their reasons also – that can be very dependent on framing of the question, whether they actually have much experience of the topic they’re being asked about etc. People are also resistant to change and wary of the unknown.

[wycombewheeler]

mdavidford wrote:

Pedantry corner: if they’re 55% full (on average), you can only put 45% of a tank in to them (on average). That makes 0.45 x 60l x 30m = 810m litres, not 990m litres. You seem to be putting 55% of a tank into cars that are already 55% full.

Yes, that was an error, trying to concenrate on two things at once

mdavidford wrote:

Also not really sure how you get to 990m litres being double 770m litres?

recovery can only happen as people revert to filling their cars up once empty, instead of maintaining their tank as close to full as possible.

Well, recovery can happen as you reach the point where everone’s tanks are full, because then, by necessity, they will go back to only taking as much fuel from the pump as they’re using. The problem is that, as you point out, reaching the point where everyone has a full tank requires several re-fills of the pumps.

I was assuing all the normal sales would occur (because people are obviously still driving around using fuel), and then additionally enough fuel would be sold to fill the typical empty space in tanks. so 760m + 810m (except where limited by fuel avaialbility)

Everyone’s tanks are full, but they continue to use the 760m litres a week, and therefore buy everything that can be delivered, so instead of petrol stations being on average 60% full, they are now on average 10% full, which means a lot of empty fuel stations.

So, if everyone rushed out once, and thereafter revert to filling up only when nearly empty, things will get back to normal, probably in around 2 weeks as the time for the average driver to use a tank, BUT if people continue to top up early for fear of not being able to et any later, the present situation will persist as deliveries to fuel stations will only match what is being used, they do not significantly exceed that. Why would they? that would mean drivers and tankers routinely sat around doing nothing sue to lack of demand.

[chrisonabike]

I really like the fact that

I really like the fact that there are adverts all over the screen (when I’m not logged in) – I think that’s a great way to help me see them. It also hides some of the “content” – which is often a good thing as the punctuation and grammar can be a real trigger! No, we’re all better off looking at bike accessories (or motorbike and car) adverts…

See – it’s easy!

[Hirsute]

wycombewheeler wrote:

I disagree, it is the prevelance of large, fast moving motor vehicles on our streets which prevents women, children and many men from utilising the bicycle as the roads are considered too dangerous.

I was thinking about that yesterday. I had a spell where I couldn’t cycle for a year and it took another 3 months or so before I could cycle to work.

Getting back on the main roads was an uncomfortable experience and an eye opener to anyone cycling for the first time. I ended up getting a mirror for a bit until my confidence levels returned to what they were.

[markieteeee]

It is indeed.

It is indeed.

[AlsoSomniloquism]

I got rid of my car in 2016

I got rid of my car in 2016 due to the MOT repairs would be 4x the cost of the car if I sold it. It was the first time since 92 I didn’t own a motorised vehicle but as I barely used it at the time, it didn’t justify me owning one when I used public transport for work, my wife could walk from work and I had access to my brothers or fathers vehicle when needed. 

I then started back into cycling in 2017 so even less reason. I did inherit my fathers low mileage 2003 Van MPV when he died and use it infrequently and will keep it until it fails its MOT. It is used so infrequently that if petrol does go off, I haven’t noticed it affect the engine. For example I think I have filled up only once, maybe twice at most this year, and three times since Covid started. 

[mdavidford]

Pedantry corner: if they’re

Pedantry corner: if they’re 55% full (on average), you can only put 45% of a tank in to them (on average). That makes 0.45 x 60l x 30m = 810m litres, not 990m litres. You seem to be putting 55% of a tank into cars that are already 55% full.

Also not really sure how you get to 990m litres being double 770m litres?

recovery can only happen as people revert to filling their cars up once empty, instead of maintaining their tank as close to full as possible.

Well, recovery can happen as you reach the point where everone’s tanks are full, because then, by necessity, they will go back to only taking as much fuel from the pump as they’re using. The problem is that, as you point out, reaching the point where everyone has a full tank requires several re-fills of the pumps.

[AlsoSomniloquism]

I wonder if this is going to

I wonder if this is going to push more people into getting electric vehicles though that just moves the bottleneck onto electric charge points instead.

I have noticed these points getting very busy at Motorway services when i drove back from Inverness last month. Cars parked double and others appearing to be waiting. The trouble is most were initially added right next to the main entrances for ease of use and as a “reward” for paying to use them. So now it means cars are badly parked right next to main access for people. 

[wycombewheeler]

jh2727 wrote:

I wouldn’t put too much stock in the reports that shortages at the pumps have been caused by panic buyers. 

30 million cars in the UK, with an average tank of 60litres, lets assume at any one point these tanks are on average 55% full. (some competely full, some nearly empty, others equally distributed somewhere in between.)

Now if everyone goes out and fills up over one weekend thats 990million litres of fuel.

assuming those cars do an average 15000 miles per year at 9 miles per litre on average, the normal weekly consumption is 770million litres per week. So if everyone went out and filled up ‘just in case’ (aka panic buying) then double the normal weekly amount of petrol will be sold.

If in a normal week the same amount of petrol is delivered to petrol stations as is used, how long will it take the tankers to replace that 990million litres of fuel as people continue keep their cars topped up? As supply and demand is close to being equal in normal times it seems like it will take a very long time to recover. In fact recovery can only happen as people revert to filling their cars up once empty, instead of maintaining their tank as close to full as possible.

It would happen even quicker if people would reduce their unnecesary journeys.

incidentally the total capacity of all petrol stations in the country is smaller than the total volume of all car fuel tanks, so if petrol stations were on average 60% full, then everyone topping up over a weekend will cause all petrol stations to be empty.

But the biggest indication that it is fuel hoarding causing the queues and closed petrol stations is that traffic levels are not significantly changed despite the fact it is hard to get petrol. While in the fuel protests of 2000 roads were essentially empty.

 

[wycombewheeler]

hawkinspeter wrote:

Petrol-gate certainly seems to be highlighting some people’s selfishness. The slight shortage could easily have been managed if it weren’t for panic buying of petrol and of course some people are driving around lots in an attempt to buy petrol.

I wonder if this is going to push more people into getting electric vehicles though that just moves the bottleneck onto electric charge points instead.

Indeed, there was no massive shortage, what there likely was a slight imbalance between delivery capacity and consumption demand.

One reaction would have been for everyone to reconsider each journey and reduce their fuel consumption by 5% leaving enough for fuel for everyone to complete their essential journeys

The other reaction was for drivers to fill up their tanks, immediately hoarding resources they don’t need yet, denying those that do.

Guess which option drivers went for, you can only describe the reponse to the situation as a symptom of addiction. As always those most oppressing drivers are in fact other drivers,

not radical enivronmentalists (although I’m not sure preferring to still have a habitable planet in 50 years should be considered radical)

Not the government

and certainly not some cycling illumianti holding significant sway over those in power from behind the scenes.

There is no war on motorists, society is bending over to give drivers as many priviliges as possible despite the known and inevitable consequence on the future of the planet of the current rate of fossil fuel consumption. The debate seems to be around how quickly can we transition to electric cars, rather than can we reduce the modal share of the private car?

And yes I am a driver, so to some extent a hypocrite

[Rendel Harris]

Simon E wrote:

Lots of people could make similar choices if they wanted to. Far from the car bringing freedom, in some ways it’s a huge millstone.

Hear hear – admittedly we were already enthusiastic cyclists, but since getting rid of the car almost exactly a year ago Mrs H and I are fitter, richer and happier with life in general. We’ve hired a van precisely once, to move some very heavy bookshelves, other than that we haven’t found a single logistical problem that can’t be overcome with a combination of bikes and public transport. Admittedly we are blessed with being able-bodied and living in a very well-connected part of London. To me giving up the car has been a bit like Allen Carr’s giving up smoking strategy: the key is to realise you’re not actually giving anything up, you’re simply doing away with a needless dependency you’ve convinced yourself you have to have.

[jh2727]

Nigel Garrage wrote:

Nigel Garrage wrote:

Did you really just claim that cars are the enabler of violence against women? ?

It was likely a reference to https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/market-exploration-tackling-e-scooter-and-e-bike-enabled-crime/tackling-e-scooter-and-e-bike-enabled-crime-market-exploration-document

Nigel Garrage wrote:

Finally a note on petrol – note the churlish “remain” nonsense, but where are the panic-stricken selfish areas? Oh surprise! London.

I wouldn’t put too much stock in the reports that shortages at the pumps have been caused by panic buyers. There’s only so much fuel a vehicle can take – and the panic buyers will have filled up their talks a week ago already.  Sure, some people will be filling up jerry cans, but most filling stations only permit 2 x 5L cans to be filled. The main difference with London, is that a much higher proportion of motorists will be taxi/uber drivers, delivery drivers etc, who probably use a tank of fuel every couple of days – most people in London don’t own a motor vehicle.

[Author]

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