[brooksby]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/24/sunak-says-it-was-a-mistake-to-empower-scientists-during-covid-pandemic

[quote]

Rishi Sunak has claimed that it was a mistake to “empower scientists” during the coronavirus pandemic and that his opposition to closing schools was met with silence during one meeting.

The Conservative leadership candidate believes one of the major errors was allowing the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) to have so much influence on decision making such as closing nurseries, schools and colleges in March 2020.

[/quote]

Discuss.

Topic

[AlsoSomniloquism]

I wasn’t looking at GDP (not

I wasn’t looking at GDP (not a tory), just that I would imagine similar population makeup, living arrangements and climate compared to say Italy or Spain. And I also included Finland as the other neighbour being as they are all on the same massive penisula. So just pointing out that out the three, one didn’t lockdown and was heralded as the way it should have been done early on by people around the world. Yet deaths were the worst of the three. Like I said earlier, simplistic but to point that the Swedes did it right with theirs early as they didn’t lock down schools is still very early to call.  

[Rich_cb]

Wales locked down earlier
Wales locked down earlier than England, in pandemic terms.

Wales had a far worse second wave as a consequence and over the course of the pandemic so far has derived no discernible mortality benefit whatsoever for the earlier lockdown.

The idea that an earlier lockdown would have helped us ‘avoid the worst’ is just not supported by the data.

[Rich_cb]

I think only comparing Sweden
I think only comparing Sweden to its neighbours is flawed.

Norway is a complete outlier in terms of wealth, 6th highest GDP per capita in the world, so will distort any local figures hugely.

Sweden performed well compared to European mortality averages and that relative performance is only likely to improve as the mortality lag effects of lockdowns etc become apparent.

[Rich_cb]

It is important to adjust the
It is important to adjust the data for accuracy.

That’s why I specifically mentioned that the data I was referring to was unadjusted.

However age is not the only adjustment needed for COVID, although it is probably the single most important one.

Ethnicity has a huge impact on COVID mortality and Wales and England have very different demographics. Eg Wales is >95% white. Population density also plays a role, Wales has a far lower population density than England.

If we could adjust the data for all appropriate variables I suspect Wales would do slightly worse than England overall.

The fact that the difference is marginal though does undermine the argument that an earlier lockdown in England would have saved lives over the entire course if the pandemic.

[AlsoSomniloquism]

Although didn’t sweden have

Although didn’t sweden have four times the deaths of its nearest neighbours whilst only having double the population. And both of its neighbours did lock down. I chose them just because of location so local weather climate etc is hopefully not a factor. 

Of course other factors might be at play then just climate or lockdown and some stats might show it was better then the others, but Swedens “good” start to Covid swiftly diminished. 
 

[AlsoSomniloquism]

But aren’t the adjustments

But aren’t the adjustments needed? I’m assuming as Covid was so deadly among the elderly, the adjustment takes into account if the population is older then the one you are comparing against? Or is that not what it is there for?

 

[David9694]

We were all hanging on

We were all hanging on scientists’ every word in 2020. How was it spreading, where? How fast? How do you catch it? how ill does it make you, what’s the treatment?

It was obvious in February ’20 that this virus was spreading, fast and there was nothing standing in the way of it. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but as has been said, we could in the UK have avoided the worst of lockdown had we acted sooner. We could also have delayed Brexit by 2 years, but we chose to plough on.

In early 2021, the first large scale testing and the vaccines came – not a silver bullet for Covid, but a high degree of protection for people. Tell me where and when the vaccines are being done and I will be there, sleeve rolled up. 

 

[Rich_cb]

For those interested in the
For those interested in the actual figures for Wales and England’s respective COVID mortality.

There is a lengthy article here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643(link is external)

I’ve taken a screen shot of the most pertinent table.

All figures are ONS figures and easily checked.

I’d trust these over an individual with a history of making up blatant lies especially one who has now produced two completely different figures for COVID mortality in Wales in the space of just a few hours.

[Rich_cb]

For those interested in the
For those interested in the actual figures for Wales and England’s respective COVID mortality.

There is a lengthy article here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643(link is external)

I’ve taken a screen shot of the most pertinent table.

All figures are ONS figures and easily checked.

I’d trust these over an individual with a history of making up blatant lies.

[Awavey]

Im not here to be anyones

Im not here to be anyones proxy to take on to be challenging the government of the past 2 years, or any period, you disagree with them, you take it up with them at the ballot box next time you vote.

so Im tapping out of this as clearly people only want to challenge the messenger and not the message.

[Rendel Harris]

Rich_cb wrote:

Rich_cb wrote:

. Wales had stricter and longer restrictions than England but ended up with, unadjusted, mortality figures that were higher.

Stone cold lie, Wales deaths with covid on death certificate, 10,597 ( UKGOV figures https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths areaType=nation&areaName=Wales) in a population of 3.1 million, England 170,528 in a population of 60 million (UK GOV figures https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=nation&areaName=England )

3,100,000/10,597 = 292.5 per 100,000

60,000,000/170,528 = 352 per 100,000

 Just stop lying, please.

[Secret_squirrel]

Why dignify this as anything

Why dignify this as anything more than it is?  A last desperate throw of the dice in the Tory hustings to be the next Prime Minister.

Unfortunately Truss got in with her lies earlier so he’s screwed. 
 

Don’t give these fraudulent creeps any more screen time.  Just keep your fingers crossed we’re into the last 2 years of their shit.

[Rich_cb]

Given Ferguson’s track record
Given Ferguson’s track record over the rest of the pandemic I wouldn’t give that prediction much credence now.

At the time it was shocking though.

Wales locked down earlier (in pandemic terms). It made no difference.

[Samtheeagle]

What definitely didn’t help

What definitely didn’t help was spaffing out Billions (nearly 2.6) on PPE items “not suitable for the NHS”.

[IanMSpencer]

Given that Sage were never in
Given that Sage were never in power, the only reasonable interpretation is that this is a criticism of Johnson failing to implement collective responsibility and choosing himself to follow the science rather than allowing the cabinet to dissent, therefore although dressed up as a criticism of scientists and the science, it is actually a criticism of Johnson.

[Author]

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