[tony kappler]

I’ve opened comp. There will no doubt be rider changes. Suter will appear after Romandie (team change required).

Pretty mouldy field really. Some of the week long races has been way better represented.

Topic

[11waterloo]

It’s funny how it goes. Had

It’s funny how it goes. Had my purist team locked and loaded for a few days but still tinkering with my standard team…… and we all know an un-tinkered with team is generally better! 

[Dr Winston]

Very hard to decide for this

Very hard to decide for this one. Struggling.

[Aragonite]

Bet365 have priced

Bet365 have priced Groenewegen 3/1 second favourite to win the second stage.

[Aragonite]

Try Feltet.dk Daniel.

Try Feltet.dk Daniel. 🙂

[Daniel Norton]

Evenepoel (he just races that

Evenepoel (he just races that way), Yates (historically) and Bernal (in his own words) are also possibly prepared to risk everything when they get the opportunity to potentially win.  It isn’t just past bad luck or injuries that reduce their odds of top 10 but potentially INCREASE the chance of winning.  They are more Contadorian in nature.  I hope I just invented a new cycling phrase. 🙂

If I was in your position Winston, in the purist overall, I admit I’d be more tempted by the “certainty” of Landa and Carthy.  They are so solid and consistent and both getting stronger.    Vlasov has looked consistently good, but he has in the past and not come good.  But if we play it safe, and you do too then can we catch you?  If we take a chance that backfires, and you don’t, then we still lose.  Is it really nothing ventured, nothing gained?  Now I see why Ineos rarely lose once they take control of the race! lol.

But Bernal, based on performance at Strada Bianchi,  could even smash the Montalcino stage 11.  Such a great rider in wind, gravel, hills etc.  Yates is one of the best climbers, but he often falls foul of illness, bad luck.  Evenepoel is capable of doing anything, will that count against him in “Simon Yates” fashion in the final week if he goes well?

This is the first time I have remembered to sort out my team every race.  I’m really enjoying the battle.  This Giro is definitely a massively tough one to predict, even more than ever with the ???s about fitness etc.  The jeopardy AND uncertainty with any selection is definitely bigger than other races.  I’ve even toyed with the insanity (?) of sacrificing Sagan to bolster my team in other ways. (Would that count as an ambush in racing terms?)

Is Evenepoel really ready to lead a GT without racing since he was injured.  Look at his win percentage!  Mind bogglingly talented.  But really?  Is that credible?  That would be more amazing than Lace Armstrong, surely?

Oh for some inside information on the risky choices (and I include the Groenewegen & is he worth risking as third sprinter question).  I know you guys will be watching for any hints from teams or other sources.  Hint: CyclingMole, as entertaining as he is, would not be in the RoadCC purist top 10 IMHO! 

[Dr Winston]

It’s all very interesting for

It’s all very interesting for sure. Certainly not a fully fit and dependable situation amongst the favourites. 

Interestingly…and kinda backs up the slightly nervy situation….Landa, Vlasov and Carthy have the best odds for finishing in the top ten, whilst Bernal, Yates and Evenepoel are the race favourites…but behind them for finishing top ten. Small margins, but even so…

[Daniel Norton]

The Tour organisers

The Tour organisers disappoint me with their heavily biased route planning.  I remember them changing the character of the race by deliberately designing the route to stop Cav from winning enough stages for the Green jersey. It just meant there was no jersey for the sprinters but it was still predictable with Sagan winning every year.   They have stopped doing with the Green jersey in recent years so much –  hence Bennett winning.

Then they tried to reduce the TT miles to stop Froome winning which didn’t even work.  Now they are trying to manipulate the route to give Alaphillippe a chance.

I’d prefer it if they just visited different regions and showcased what terrain was there.  If it visits Austria then lets see the mountain heavy stages.  If we visit Belgium then lets go Spring Classic.  But let’s not just try to stop certain riders win or help others.  The best races include a bit of everything after all.  Cobbles, wind, TTs, Summit finishes, breakaways etc.  Love it all.

[Daniel Norton]

Surely listing Evenpoel as

Surely listing Evenpoel as leader and no Quickstep sprinter hints at Evenpoel having form.  They must be expecting to have to protect both Evenepoel, Almeida and ALSO Masnada early on in the race  -in case Evenpoel can’t challenge?

It is practically impossible (unless you have Ganna, Puccio, Moscon, Sosa et al. in your team) to defend the pink jersey (which Evenoel or Almeida will take early) and protect all three riders.  Masnada would have been a great pick but these issues complicate him.  How can they not sacrifice Masnada.  Masnada would have as a minimum been in with a shout of stages and/or the mountains jersey otherwise.

The other way for Quickstep to win the race, if Bernal stays fit, would be to use Masnada, Cavagna, Honore, Knox etc to smash the race to pieces and ambush in the hills and mountains.  It has worked at the Giro before but Ineos team is ridiculously strong even for them.

The above might be another reason to worry Landa as much as his weak TT.  He has a good team but Ineos and Quickstep even make Bahrain look average.

[Daniel Norton]

I hear what you are saying

I hear what you are saying about Bernal (and Landa).  Bernal finished behind Landa on GC at Tirreno.  If the back problems are better now, Bernal’s one day form suggests he can win still.  Big purist dilemma.

Does anyone dare to not include Bernal in their purist team?  Does anyone dare to not include Evenepoel for that matter.  If they finish the Giro in anything like decent condition then a team without both will drop like a stone.  If they drop out of contention early, due to fitness issues (or lack of GC ready legs in Evenepoels case), then any team with both will drop like a stone.  Evenpoel might save his race with breakaways, I guess, if out of contention very early.

Perhaps interestingly, Evenepoel (not Almeida who is in every purist team anyway) is listed as Quickstep’s leader, if race numbers are anything to go by.

But I agree that if Bernal isn’t climbing well, then Landa has a decent shout of leading the Giro until he inevitably (?) loses it in the final pan-flat TT.  Only Yates is a better climber than him who I forgot to mention but will also probably make most purist teams.  If Yates, Bernal, Carthy, Evenpoel or Almeida start the final TT within a minute of Landa then he loses.  That doesn’t stop Landa scoring heavily in the mountains depending on breakaways.

 

[11waterloo]

I like Vanhoucke as a pick

I like Vanhoucke as a pick but I would maybe also go Valter if I wanted decent odds (he was 27th on GC last year) It’s all guess work though! 

[11waterloo]

I saw those top ten odds and

I saw those top ten odds and it does show the uncertainty over Evenepoel especially. It does confirm that purist team selection is a tough one.

[Dr Winston]

Crikey. Yeah. Long odds but a

Crikey. Yeah. Long odds but a quid keeps the interest high with those odds.

Bet 365 have just listed there odds for a top ten placement btw. Always an interesting page. 
Landa, Vlasov, Carthy the top three picks…followed by Bernal 4th, Yates 5th and Remco 11th. 

I think that’s a good reflection when compared to the winner odds..and the somewhat flaky nature of the trop three picks in that. 

[Aragonite]

He does have a better chance

He does have a better chance than my two, but his price relects that. A tenner on Dan would win you 6.15, whereas my two would return 40.00 and 60.00 respectively.

[Dr Winston]

Dan Martin must surely be

Dan Martin must surely be your pick for that. Bookies have him at 67 but he’s better than that. A bit of a ropey start to the season may be the reason but i’m sure over three weeks he’ll end up with a decent place. I’ve never placed a bet in my life btw…but if I did then picking top tens in cycling sounds like a good way to bet.

[Aragonite]

Bookmakers certainly not

Bookmakers certainly not taking any chances with young Remco, a pretty skinny 4/1 to win what is his first GT. Personally always like to take a couple of riders to get a top ten GC finish, about the only bet that maintains an interest well into the race, even if they are miles behind there is always a chance of them making that breakaway the leaders just let go. The two that get the kiss of death are Champoussin, and Vanhoucke. 

[Author]

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