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World Championship Road Race

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  • September 26, 2013 at 10:21 am #19961
    Stumps

    I know its not till Sunday but i might as wll get the ball rolling.

    Described as a medium mountain stage its seems to fit the bill perfectly for Sagan however when you look at each lap of the course the first climb is about 4.5kms with a max gradient of 9% followed by a downhill section.

    The sting in the tail is the little burst just 6kms before the end which is only 600 metres but rises to 16% then its downhill the whole way bar a 100m lump 2.5k from the end.

    If someone gets away on the last 600m rise then its going to be hard bringing them back again.

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  • September 27, 2013 at 1:55 pm #758165
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    Stumps

    When you look at the lap
    When you look at the lap profile if Nibs, Froome or one of the Spanish want to win they are going to have to attack big style on the big hill and then tt it to the next hill and go again.

    If they get away then i cant see them getting closed down or the only other option is to get into an early break and stay the course but just meandering along will play into the likes of Sagan’s hands.

    September 27, 2013 at 12:43 pm #758163
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    drheaton

    Yes, I’m sure both will be
    Yes, I’m sure both will be popular.

    Looks like the final start list has been released so I’ll be making a large roster update this evening and checking for last minute changes on Saturday.

    September 27, 2013 at 12:38 pm #758161
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    ray silvester

    And I wouldn’t mind betting
    And I wouldn’t mind betting that Tybor and Jurco will be amongst the 5 most popular riders…..even if we’ve never bleedin heard of ’em!!

    September 27, 2013 at 12:24 pm #758159
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    ray silvester

    Absolutely wide
    Absolutely wide open….although I’d say the biggest threat to Sagan is fewer teams making it tough which leaves a chance of a Degenkolb or Bling still being around.I’m not sure it would be possible to make it so hard that you could shell Cancellara,Sagan,EBH,Thor etc.

    I think the downhill sections may be the key which brings people like Sammy and His Nibs into it but they’re no better than the 4 I mentioned above descending and wouldn’t beat them in a sprint or TT away from them.

    So that would be my top 4…..Sagan,Cancellara,EBH and Thor.

    September 27, 2013 at 6:17 am #758157
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    drheaton

    Its 5 team points awarded by
    Its 5 team points awarded by nationality so a Froome win means 5 points for Thomas, Cummings, Standard etc.

    September 27, 2013 at 2:37 am #758155
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    Simon_MacMichael

    msw wrote:Isn’t it a bit

    msw wrote:
    Isn’t it a bit Milan Sanremo-ish?

    Only if they made them climb the Cipressa 10 times 😉

    This is a much tougher parcours.

    The various races ahead of the men’s elite on Sunday will give us an idea of just *how* tough.

    September 27, 2013 at 12:40 am #758153
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    enrique

    JAndrewHill wrote:… if

    JAndrewHill wrote:
    … if Froome wins, would I get ten pts for Cummings or ten pts for EBH?

    I think it’s 5 pts for Cummings…

    September 26, 2013 at 10:25 pm #758151
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    JAndrewHill

    Just to check…if Froome
    Just to check…if Froome wins, would I get ten pts for Cummings or ten pts for EBH?

    September 26, 2013 at 9:00 pm #758149
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    msw

    Isn’t it a bit Milan
    Isn’t it a bit Milan Sanremo-ish? My wild stab in the dark is that maybe 30 make it over the last climb in a front group and then 6-8 of those break again before the finish. Can’t really leave Cancellara out but I think he might get tactically mugged AGAIN and end up towing a group who outsprint him. Wanted to pick Van Avermaet but won’t he be riding for Gilbert… who could just have an off day.

    So I don’t have either Froome or Nibali because I reckon even if they’re in the front group neither of them can win the sprint, and the climb is too short and too far from the finish for them to solo away. Nibali maybe but he is v expensive.

    And I have a final sneaking feeling that Boasson Hagen might come good.

    Very tough to pick!

    September 26, 2013 at 12:59 pm #758147
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    drheaton

    No, teams are nowhere near
    No, teams are nowhere near finalised, for example Luke Rowe has replaced Tiernan-Locke in the GB squad.

    You can keep track of changes here:

    http://www.cyclingfever.com/editie.html?detp=view&_ap=startlijst&editie_idd=MjQyMjU=

    and I’ll be running roster updates over the next few days.

    And I think you mean the TTT badges.

    September 26, 2013 at 12:52 pm #758145
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    backflipbedlem

    are the teams finalised
    are the teams finalised yet?

    And whats happening with our ITT badges?? 😉

    September 26, 2013 at 12:06 pm #758143
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    drheaton

    There are a few climbers who
    There are a few climbers who can win a sprint from a small bunch and I think it might come down to them, Valverde in particular.

    I see the climbers all going hell for leather on the penultimate climb to drop the likes of Sagan then them playing cat and mouse on the final climb until someone makes a break for it, a Bakelandts or Costa type.

    That’s what’s confusing me, will it be a climbers or a puncheurs day? Will it come down to the Froome/Nibali/Valverde types or to the Bakelandts/Gilbert/Van Avermaet types?

    There are so many possibles that it’s really tough to pick a team.

    September 26, 2013 at 11:21 am #758141
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    STEVESPRO 79

    From a spectators point of
    From a spectators point of view this course is mouth wateringly exciting…
    From a fantasy cyclists point of view this course is a bloody nightmare…

    If teams don’t work together and go really hard from the off, then Sagan wins… But will they have the bottle, nerve and trust to do that…

    If Sagan is ganged up on, which is easier said than done, as he can just about do anything at the moment, then picking a winner is a real lottery. To get rid of Sagan they are all going to be knackered, which opens it up for a number of genuine contenders…

    I personally think Sagan will win but there are a few riders who have done virtually nothing all year and targeted this…Back to back rainbows for Phil Gil ???

    September 26, 2013 at 11:15 am #758139
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    Stumps

    Yeah it could end up like the
    Yeah it could end up like the Olympics where no team would help GB.

    My gut feeling is that he will win (God i hope not, i hate the man with a passion) but i can see Da Costa and the likes of EBH being there or thereabouts provided they are not spat out the back like you mentioned.

    September 26, 2013 at 10:42 am #758137
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    drheaton

    Given Sagan’s showing in
    Given Sagan’s showing in Canada and the way he attacked rather than waited for the sprint I can see a couple of teams looking to shell him out of the back as early as possible by making it a very hard race.

    The only problem with that plan is that more than one team would have to commit a few of their riders early on and weaken themselves to succeed. If one team (Spain etc) doesn’t help then they may all just sit and watch each other.

    Personally I see it being a slightly more climber friendly course than a pure Sagan fest. Gilbert and Valverde will surely fancy their chances along with Nibali (who’s too expensive for my liking).

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