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Take the wind out of the prologue

  • This topic has 7 replies, 2 voices, and was last updated 13 years ago by cherrypicked.
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  • June 10, 2013 at 2:01 pm #19057
    cherrypicked

    First chart is 2013 TdSuisse start position vs finishing time. The impact of the wind is quite evident.

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  • June 10, 2013 at 2:54 pm #741697
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    cherrypicked

    The only remaining riders who
    The only remaining riders who started before this and after Meyer were
    MORKOV, Michael
    VANMARCKE, Sep
    KOCH, Michel
    FERRARI, Roberto
    CHÉREL, Mikael
    FRANK, Mathias
    MORTON, Lachlan David
    DYACHENKO, Alexandr

    June 10, 2013 at 2:53 pm #741695
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    cherrypicked

    You will notice that the
    You will notice that the gradient and correlation are similar. Just looking at it again, maybe I should have taken it off for another 10 riders or so.

    The resulting top 20 looks like this:
    Pos’n New Pos Name
    16 1 CANCELLARA, Fabian
    26 2 DUMOULIN, Tom
    1 3 MEYER, Cameron
    32 4 KANGERT, Tanel
    34 5 O’GRADY, Stuart
    35 6 BOUET, Maxime
    36 7 AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA, Andrey
    38 8 ALBASINI, Michael
    40 9 SAGAN, Peter
    41 10 IMPEY, Daryl
    43 11 DEVOLDER, Stijn
    44 12 ROCHE, Nicolas
    45 13 MOSER, Moreno
    46 14 HERRADA LOPEZ, Jesus
    2 15 TERPSTRA, Niki
    53 16 COSTA, Rui Alberto
    56 17 MOLLEMA, Bauke
    60 18 BRAJKOVIC, Janez
    62 19 KELDERMAN, Wilco
    63 20 GRETSCH, Patrick

    June 10, 2013 at 2:49 pm #741693
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    cherrypicked

    Riders 60-68 (start position)
    Riders 60-68 (start position) were
    ISAICHEV, Vladimir
    TIERNAN-LOCKE, Jonathan
    SANZ UNZUE, Enrique
    FEILLU, Brice
    ELMIGER, Martin
    FRÖHLINGER, Johannes
    VAN POPPEL, Boy
    ROY, Jérémy
    OROZ UGALDE, Juan José
    so I don’t think there’s too much ITT strength there. Elmiger is the only one to (just) make it to the top20 if you take off 30 seconds.

    Riders 58, 59 were
    VELITS, Peter
    MONFORT, Maxime
    who would have come in either side of Cancellara by taking off the 30sec as well.

    June 10, 2013 at 2:45 pm #741691
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    drheaton

    That’s actually pretty close
    That’s actually pretty close to what alot of people expected.

    Cancellara much further up, Meyer, Kangert, Amador, Albasini and Sagan all mixing it up in the top 10 or so.

    Very interesting, thanks 😀

    June 10, 2013 at 2:18 pm #741689
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    cherrypicked

    Then with some adjustment by
    Then with some adjustment by observation, sorry not getting too statistical (or technical) here, the adjusted chart looks like this. It is actually just taking off 30sec from start position 69.

    June 10, 2013 at 2:12 pm #741687
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    cherrypicked

    This is the same chart but
    This is the same chart but for the 2012 TdS data. Trying to get some picture of what we might expect.

    June 10, 2013 at 2:06 pm #741685
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    drheaton

    Would be interesting to see
    Would be interesting to see what the positions would be if you applied statistical analysis to the results and adjusted the times to reflect the effect the wind had on the times.

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