Ardennes Classics

and finally, i’ve changed
and finally, i’ve changed betancur’s name so it’s right 😀

okay, to clarify:
1) the
okay, to clarify:

1) the values of riders are set once, for each competition. So Betancurt doing well in the first few races of the spring classics isn’t going to make him more expensive later on in that competition. He’ll be more expensive in subsequent competitions though.

2) the values are based on 12 months of form. The different competitions are weighted differently, with the grand tours being the highest. so yes, JTL doing well in the ToB last year is going to up his value. but not by as much as if he’d picked up a bunch of points in a bigger race.

3) the values are based on what sort of stages are in the competition. so richie porte racking up the points in the mountains and individual time trials isn’t going to help him much in the classics, where it’s all flat and medium mountains. JTL, on the other hand, has good form on those kinds of stages. hence, he’s more expensive.

Yeah, like you said, there’ll
Yeah, like you said, there’ll always be anomalies be at least under the current system values are more reflective of ability and form than they were last year when values were set at the start of the year and didn’t change.

Last year there were all sorts off odd values towards the middle/end of the year where riders like Bouhanni and Degenkolb had burst on to the scene mid-year but were still dirt cheap.

The key as always though is picking people who are good value and who you think will do well, that hasn’t changed.

Hi messrs Heaton and
Hi messrs Heaton and ratcliffe – wanted to chip in as I’ve never quite grasped rider valuation before (not given it much thought as its the same for everyone anyway) but I think I’ve got it now – so is this (using Betancurt as an example) correct?

Betancurt was set at 3.0 for the “Spring Classics” competition, when the values were set before Milan-San Remo (and possibly before the end of Paris-Nice). He was also 3.0 for Catalunya, and increased to 4.4 for Vasco based on picking up a few points in Catalunya. Having had a very good Vasco, he will probably be valued much higher for his next race (maybe the Giro?), but the values for the “Spring Classics” competition were set in March and will not change mid-competition, so for Amstel/Fleche/Liege he will remain at 3.0. Sound right?

I guess the main thing is, as we’ve said before, that whatever system is used to calculate rider values will throw up the odd anomaly in certain races, and identifying from which of those you can gain an advantage is part of the game.

yourpaceormine wrote:I’m

yourpaceormine wrote:

I’m wondering why JTL has a higher value than Richie Porte…

That’s a good point… Maybe his points from ToB and other races should be weighted down because of the level of competition of the races he competed in last year…

ray silvester wrote:

… In a rolling 12 months JTL is probably still carrying value from the ToB?

Dave, is that true? Or is it his results from other races, too? Dave, is his value calculated based on the types of stages in the current competition or purely on the rolling last 12 months? There are people like Betancur and Weening at 3.0 points… But obviuosly they’ve performed nicely recently… Shouldn’t JTL’s value be lower because it’s his 1st participation the Classics? I know it’s probably going to stay put, but could you give us an insight into what goes into the value formulation that things like this happen? Does the formula need some tweaking? 🙂

drheaton wrote:

…in effect every rider value for the entirety of the classics was set before Milan-SanRemo.

That means that Porte’s form from Paris-Nice and Pais Vasco may not have been included.

[T]he classics.. races, two are rated flat and five are rated as medium mountains. Porte scores his points in the high mountains or in TTs so potentially isn’t ranked as highly when it comes to the classifications used.

Dave, is it true then, that what dr is saying, that Porte’s value does nor include his Paris Nice peformance? Can you tell us more about rider valuation? JTL still doesn’t make much sense to me vis-a-vis Porte, but the truth is I think he’s fairly valued…

yourpaceormine wrote:I’m

yourpaceormine wrote:

I’m wondering why JTL has a higher value than Richie Porte.

JTL, Brian Smith was on Eurosport saying that they (Endura) had specifically targetted early season races with JTL as they anticipated the rest of the peleton would still be riding into form. Sadly this year the rest of the World Tour has started paying attention to the Sky mentality of riding for victories from the start and for the whole season rather than just targetting a Grand Tour.

In a rolling 12 months JTL is probably still carrying value from the ToB?

drheaton wrote:Look at it

drheaton wrote:

Look at it from Sky’s point of view, JTL is entirely unproven at World Tour level and not someone you’d trust to lead a team when you’ve already got riders like Froome, Wiggins, Porte, Uran and Henao. All of these established successful riders are above JTL in the pecking order. Then add in loads of hard working domestiques like Kiryenka and Cataldo who are proven at this level and have been putting in the miles for the team.

This year is probably about working out what level JTL is capable of riding at and ensuring he has the fitness to deal with the longer races that he’s not been used to in the past.

Next year, maybe, we might see JTL being given the chance to race, but this year it’s about integrating him into the team and getting him up to speed.

JTL will probably lead the team at the ToB and in races such as GP Quebec when Wiggo etc have packed up for the season (imo)

Apologies, the article seems
Apologies, the article seems to have gone from what it started as “Ardennes Classics” to a chat on JTL. I should have kept my mouth shut. #o