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TheBigMong.
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June 22, 2012 at 11:59 am #16144
drheaton
I figured I’d start a separate thread for all the purist players out there because we’ve got some different decisions to make from the standard ‘who’ll win the prologue’.
My feeling is that most teams will have at least one, but probably two, of Wiggins, Evans and Sagan. These seem like bankers when it comes to consistent points. Likewise Westra will probably be popular but what are your plans for the rest of your slots? Are you tempted to bring more TT guys into your purist team than usual as there’s three TTs or will you stick to the usual climber heavy team? Will 7 flat stages tempt you to pick some sprinters and who’ll be the big breakaway guys this year?
Cards on the table, I’m tempted to pick one of Hoogerland and Moncoutie who I think will both go after the KoM jersey, there’s plenty of points on offer even on the flatter stages this year so fingers crossed one’ll try and go for them. I probably won’t pick people specifically for the TTs but might pick a sprinter (other than Sagan), someone like Van Hummel. Likewise I might try for some breakaway DSs given the array of KoM points on offer but I never usually get the right guys. At the minute my team looks like:
Wiggins
Sagan
Valverde
Brajkovic
Engoulvent
Charteau
Geslin
Kashechkin
Jeandesbozbut that’ll change a fair bit over the next week.
What are your plans and how do you see the race going?
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TERatcliffe26
Fair enough, I guess you
Fair enough, I guess you could make a case for many of them. The difference for me with LL Sanchez compared to Casar/Cunego is that I can see a few stages in the first week where LL Sanchez can finish highly, as well as him goin on a break away and potenially winning at some point. But also with him, any expected sprint type stages that get broken up or is massively reduced then he may sprint in them. as you can see from my original purist team above i had chosen LL Sanchez, however I may have decided for different tactic altogether based on my own advice I was giving.Agreed, all three Rabo GC
Agreed, all three Rabo GC contenders (Gesink, Mollema and Kruijswick in particular) are more expensive than their results have warranted. Kruijswick though has the benefit of falling into the young rider category and potentially getting 5 extra points a stage if he can keep up with the big guns, particularly as Rolland is now not a young rider and Kruijswicks only real competition for the jersey will be from Taaramae, Van Garderen and maybe Poels.For me the benefit of Chavanel (current French TT champ) is that if he manages top 5 or 10 in the prologue (which is more likely than Sanchez getting top 10 imo) is that he can keep up throughout the first week as well as being able to have a go at stages 1 and 3. Once the first week is done I agree that Chavanel and Sanchez will probably be fairly even in their potential but I think fantasy wise Chavanel may get the jump in the first week. Also, +5 points every time Martin wins a TT 😀
EDIT: Also, been looking at the 18-22 price range and unless Sanchez has a blinder I see Brajkovic, Velits and maybe even Horner being more consistent scorers.
From memory I only really see Sanchez as a stage winner, not a real contender, and if he wins two stages he’ll be lucky so maybe he’ll get a maximum of 80-100 points
In the Giro people like Cunego and Casar (who I see as similar kind of performers, single stage winners or breakaway guys) managed 71 and 88 points, Tiralongo who managed to keep up with the GC guys most of the way before falling away at the end, similar to how I see Horner and the like doing, managed 201.
I was looking at more of a
I was looking at more of a price to potential ratio, which would count gilbert out for me.I would put chavanel in the LL Sanchez boat then, can be unpredictable as to who is gonna turn up and what he will do. It depends how you may use your stars though, planning for 3 weeks Sanchez may have more potential to score over picking a sprinter of a similar value
Again I think Kruijswick is quite expensive in relation to his results and what other cheaper riders have achieved. From a purists view it would be someone like leiphimer over him every day. He may be worth a gamble in a non purist team later in the race. Poels would be the better risk in my opinion, however a bit unpredictable as to when he shows up also
I don’t really rate LL
I don’t really rate LL Sanchez, he might be up there for the first week but I think he’ll revert to type and just go for breaks, that means what points he gets will be unpredictable.Nibali is an odd one, he’s only a great descender because he puts loads of effort into it, yes there are a lot of of downhill finishes and with Wiggins/Evans being slower uphill he should keep up but I can’t see him featuring as well as someone like Sammy Sanchez who is better both uphill and down.
JVdB could go well but I agree, he’s expensive, Gerrans is a good call for two or three stages and some of the white jersey contenders might be worth having, people like Poels and Kruijswick.
If you’re suggesting Gerrans what about Chavanel or Gilbert?
I think JVDB will podium and
I think JVDB will podium and may end up in a normal team as the race progresses however his price for a purist team is too highThe big miss off your list is LL Sanchez in my opinion, also when you consider his price. Also potentially Gerrans at his price.
Another if people want a risk could be Kessiakoff at his price. Ive gone Hoogerland, but Kessiakoff should TT well and could also finish high up with GC guys
Also looking at price surely Kascheskin is worth a mention as a DS
arsene
@frankiejay:
nice list,
@frankiejay:
nice list, though i got 4 riders in my current line-up that u dont include.
i think u should look at the different stages and make a plan which types of riders u need 2 do well there. sometimes riders with special talents are needed. also i consider the plans of each team and possible goals of the riders.
Nibali is a rider who is likely 2 score high on a lot of different stages, so imo Wiggins or Evans are probably no must-haves. Same for Gesink, very versatile rider and Van den Broeck is hard 2 beat in the mountains.
Renshaw might do well in the sprints, hes 1 of the fastest guys in the world.
anyway, good luck,
hope we’ll see on top of the table 😀 B-)frankiejay wrote:Purist is
frankiejay wrote:Purist is painful. I keep looking at my team and thinking, “Oh but I can’t leave him out. He’ll probably have a huge tour.”In no particular order here are all the guys I’m considering.
GC guys:
Wiggins (probably a must)
Evans (certainly likely a top 2)
Froome (maybe a little too costly for a guy I don’t think can win)
Gesink (I am super high on him… but not sure I can fit him on the team)
Hesjedal (I really have no idea)
Leipheimer (so cheap… it’s so tempting)
Horner (again so cheap)
Rogers (fill in cheap guy who will score points in a couple different ways)Sprint guys:
Sagan (again, how can you leave him out?)
Goss (not going to be able to afford him, but seems like a solid pick)
Hutarovich (probably not going to spend 23 on a second sprinter, but still)
Haedo (cheap sprinters are nice)
Hunter (ditto)Mountains guys:
D Martin (lots of talk of him going for the polka dot)
Taaramae (bonus young rider points too)
Hoogerland (you know he’s going to go for a million breaks, right?)
Rui Costa (probably not, but he did just win a warm-up for the TDF, has to count for something)DS guys:
Gallopin (probably not worth it, but should place in several sprints)
Pinot (young rider, GC potential, but he could easily be the guy who just finishes in 20th place all the time… dunno)
Westra (maybe a required guy this year)
Zabriskie (probably not worth it for 7.9, but should score well in TTs)
Iglinsky (GC potential)
Szmyd (depends on what Liquigas end up doing)
Txurruka (potential mountain goat)
Bouet (likely obligatory ALM guy in the breakaway)
Hanson (likely obligatory Lotto guy in the breakaway)
Cooke (sprint points?)
Di Gregorio (likely obligatory Confidis guy in the breakaway)
E Martinez (another Euski mountain goat)
Lancaster (TT points?)
B Feillu (Saur mt goat)
Simon (good potential to score for a 4 point guy)
Cantwell (ultra cheap sprint points?)
Izagirre (see every other Euski guy)
Vandenbergh (best of the ultra cheap, methinks)So… my team will most likely be some combination of those guys… now if only I can figure out who…
That’s one hell of a list!
My only additions might be Andrea Kloden (who can climb and TT and I reckon may go well this year and is also cheapish), Mollema and Kruijswick who may go well if Gesink doesn’t. Likewise Rojas may also go well if he wants the Green this year. Valverde may also feature heavily or may be a complete bust. Even if he suffers in the GC he should pick up at least a stage win or decent placing.
There’s a few interesting names in there and most of my picks are on the list. I agree on Froome, could be great, but expensive for someone who we expect will just work as a DS and ride himself into the ground for Wiggins. Likewise with Rogers/Porte. Two of Evans/Wiggins/Sagan seem to be must haves but picking which two and then filling in a team around them will be pretty tough. Usually I’d say Evans and Wiggins for lots of GC/Mountain finish points but Sagan is so good at being there or there abouts on the kind of stages you wouldn’t expect someone like Cav to feature that I think he’s a shoe in for a few stage wins and the Green jersey.
frankiejay
Purist is painful. I keep
Purist is painful. I keep looking at my team and thinking, “Oh but I can’t leave him out. He’ll probably have a huge tour.”In no particular order here are all the guys I’m considering.
GC guys:
Wiggins (probably a must)
Evans (certainly likely a top 2)
Froome (maybe a little too costly for a guy I don’t think can win)
Gesink (I am super high on him… but not sure I can fit him on the team)
Hesjedal (I really have no idea)
Leipheimer (so cheap… it’s so tempting)
Horner (again so cheap)
Rogers (fill in cheap guy who will score points in a couple different ways)Sprint guys:
Sagan (again, how can you leave him out?)
Goss (not going to be able to afford him, but seems like a solid pick)
Hutarovich (probably not going to spend 23 on a second sprinter, but still)
Haedo (cheap sprinters are nice)
Hunter (ditto)Mountains guys:
D Martin (lots of talk of him going for the polka dot)
Taaramae (bonus young rider points too)
Hoogerland (you know he’s going to go for a million breaks, right?)
Rui Costa (probably not, but he did just win a warm-up for the TDF, has to count for something)DS guys:
Gallopin (probably not worth it, but should place in several sprints)
Pinot (young rider, GC potential, but he could easily be the guy who just finishes in 20th place all the time… dunno)
Westra (maybe a required guy this year)
Zabriskie (probably not worth it for 7.9, but should score well in TTs)
Iglinsky (GC potential)
Szmyd (depends on what Liquigas end up doing)
Txurruka (potential mountain goat)
Bouet (likely obligatory ALM guy in the breakaway)
Hanson (likely obligatory Lotto guy in the breakaway)
Cooke (sprint points?)
Di Gregorio (likely obligatory Confidis guy in the breakaway)
E Martinez (another Euski mountain goat)
Lancaster (TT points?)
B Feillu (Saur mt goat)
Simon (good potential to score for a 4 point guy)
Cantwell (ultra cheap sprint points?)
Izagirre (see every other Euski guy)
Vandenbergh (best of the ultra cheap, methinks)So… my team will most likely be some combination of those guys… now if only I can figure out who…
Purist is painful. I keep
Purist is painful. I keep looking at my team and thinking, “Oh but I can’t leave him out. He’ll probably have a huge tour.”In no particular order here are all the guys I’m considering.
GC guys:
Wiggins (probably a must)
Evans (certainly likely a top 2)
Froome (maybe a little too costly for a guy I don’t think can win)
Gesink (I am super high on him… but not sure I can fit him on the team)
Hesjedal (I really have no idea)
Leipheimer (so cheap… it’s so tempting)
Horner (again so cheap)
Rogers (fill in cheap guy who will score points in a couple different ways)Sprint guys:
Sagan (again, how can you leave him out?)
Goss (not going to be able to afford him, but seems like a solid pick)
Hutarovich (probably not going to spend 23 on a second sprinter, but still)
Haedo (cheap sprinters are nice)
Hunter (ditto)Mountains guys:
D Martin (lots of talk of him going for the polka dot)
Taaramae (bonus young rider points too)
Hoogerland (you know he’s going to go for a million breaks, right?)
Rui Costa (probably not, but he did just win a warm-up for the TDF, has to count for something)DS guys:
Gallopin (probably not worth it, but should place in several sprints)
Pinot (young rider, GC potential, but he could easily be the guy who just finishes in 20th place all the time… dunno)
Westra (maybe a required guy this year)
Zabriskie (probably not worth it for 7.9, but should score well in TTs)
Iglinsky (GC potential)
Szmyd (depends on what Liquigas end up doing)
Txurruka (potential mountain goat)
Bouet (likely obligatory ALM guy in the breakaway)
Hanson (likely obligatory Lotto guy in the breakaway)
Cooke (sprint points?)
Di Gregorio (likely obligatory Confidis guy in the breakaway)
E Martinez (another Euski mountain goat)
Lancaster (TT points?)
B Feillu (Saur mt goat)
Simon (good potential to score for a 4 point guy)
Cantwell (ultra cheap sprint points?)
Izagirre (see every other Euski guy)
Vandenbergh (best of the ultra cheap, methinks)So… my team will most likely be some combination of those guys… now if only I can figure out who…
ray silvester
Wiggins is a must.He could be
Wiggins is a must.He could be top 3 from start till finish with a hidden bonus picking up +5 for every Cav/EBH win!Rolland could go well especially if TiVo’s fitness is off and Europcar get behind him.Besides the additional white jersey points make him more appetising than his team-mate.
Moncoutie is my idea of a KOM contender although Hoogerland’s making all the right noises and will get a heroes reception all through LeBoucle.
Robbie Hunter’s a cheap,reliable,consistent sprinter who TT’s ok,inevitably gets to Paris and may also pick up points if Farrar/Danielson/Martin etc pick up stage wins.
Perhaps Txurruka or Roux as DS for breaks?
Cooke as DS for sprints?
Szmyd as DS for KOM points(plus he’ll get points for sagan wins)?
Zabriskie or Grabsch as DS for TT’s?
Albasini as an all round good guy DS with form from the TDS?Perhaps:
Wiggins
Moncoutie
Rolland
Hunter
Cooke
Szmyd
Zabriskie
Txurruka
AlbasiniGkam84
My two constants are going to
My two constants are going to be in my team whatever happens. Reading Frankie’s top ten, i doubt a couple of them1. Wiggins
2. Evans
3. Hesjedal
4. S Sanchez – Cant see him doing much
5. Gesink – Not sure he’ll be Rabo’s main guy
6. T Martin – Can keep with the big guys in the large mountains
7. Nibali – Only if Liquigas change their tactics
8. Leipheimer
9. van den Broeck
10. Horner – Too old and will be playing a supporting roleIve set up another account
Ive set up another account for a purist team, My team goes like this…Wiggins
Sagan
Hoogerland
LL SanchezSimon
Gallopin
Westra
Izagirre
KascheskinAh yes, should learn to
Ah yes, should learn to read…Agree that its Wiggins/Evans then a small group behind them then the rest.
What I’d say on Froome is that he didn’t show anything before taking 2nd in the Vuelta, a race he could arguably have won if he hadn’t been working for Wiggins. If the the last few races are anything to go by I wouldn’t be surprised to see maybe 4 Sky riders in the top 20 and depending on how the race plays out maybe 2 or 3 in the top 10.
If anything Wiggins is lucky that Evans is riding because it gives him another ‘grind-it-out’ climber who’s team will help chase down the mountain goats like Schleck and Sanchez.
I had Hesjedal at #3…
I had Hesjedal at #3… lukewarm on Menchov and Brajkovic, Froome hasn’t exactly shown much this year. But there are certainly a lot of guys who could finish 5-10. I’d throw Scarponi, Rolland, Danielson, Taaramae, and Voeckler in there.I think there are really three tiers this year.
Tier 1: Evans and Wiggins
Tier 2: Hesjedal, S Sanchez, Schleck and Gesink
Tier 3: Everybody else we both mentioned.Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s
Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s similar to that and I’ve squeezed Gesink into my team along side Wiggins, Sagan and Hoogerland now (changed my team heavily over lunch).Schleck could do very well fantasy wise if he wins a couple of stages and picks up some KoM points but I don’t know if he’ll get on the podium. I’d still expect him to be top 5 though.
I doubt Martin will be that high, yes there’s lots of TTing but for me that will just make the mountains even more brutal, especially if Sky drive the pace like they did in the CdD. I think the climbers will have to make up more time in fewer stages this year so it’ll be attacking from the off and big time gaps. I think Martin will struggle fairly early and sit up just riding for the TTs and to keep himself fresh for the Olympics.
I admit Hoogerland’s a risk but I guess he’s no more or less of a risk that someone like Valverde who could do very well or could be decidedly average.
EDIT: Also, no Hesjedal? And what about Menchov, Froome or Brajkovic?
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