Electric Vehicles – Red Herring?

The answer to the problems

The answer to the problems caused by too many cars can never be “different cars”. 

CXR94Di2 wrote:

 

This is my Wife’s car heading to London having done over a 100 miles so far to visit an ill relative in hospital. She will probably do a quick top charge on the return leg, whilst having her lunch

The journey in savings £7 electric overnight charging as opposed to £41 Petrol  

Zero CO2, NO2,  driving emissions 😀

 

23 degrees, I’ve never been in a mobile sauna before!

Griff500 wrote:

Griff500 wrote:

You’ve missed the point. The peak wind speed acceding to the paper YOU referenced is not where you said it is. You said the peak was between 18:00 and 20:00. It isn’t for any of the 3 years the paper discusses. 2 of the years peak at 14:30. The 3rd at 17:00. YOUR data does not support YOUR argument, not even 2013. The peak of your graph is not where you said it is. Learn to read a graph, then your argument may have more credibility.

The point was, and remains, that EV charging is best done at night. That was the entire basis of this discussion in the first place. Whether the peak is at 1700 or 1800 doesn’t change that.

Griff500 wrote:

Griff500 wrote:

Yet your own referenced data shows that wind output peaks in late afternoon (17:00) in the UK, is well past peak by the supposed start of your “18:00 – 20:00” peak, and these “night peaks” of which you speak are a red herring. 

Having said that, even your own referenced data from a researcher at Strathclyde Uni, and averaged over a year, differs markedly from a more comprehensive 34 years worth of data published by Oxford, and which accounts for seasonal variation (your reference admits to this omission) which you will find here. https://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/publications/downloads/sinden06-windresource.pdf

And which shows the daily peak at 14:00 for most of the year, and typically has dropped by 1/3 by your supposed “18:00 – 20:00” peak!

This is actually quite convenient as UK electricity consumption peaks in late afternoon, just as wind is at its peak, and is at a minimum in early morning (4:00) when wind output is at a minimum.  

OK, so why the difference between the Strathclyde data and the Oxford data ? Well the answer is in your own paper. Your paper shows data for 3 different years, 2011, 12 and 13. 2013 is clearly different. The 2011 and 2012 data from your own paper fits closely with the Oxford 34 year average, showing peak at 14:30, and significant evening drop off. It is the 2013 data, which shows unrepresentative  evening performance (by the standards of the 3 datasets presented) which you chose to illustrate a bogus point. Andy even then, you misrepresented the time of the peak. Pretty shabby!

Your paper looks at onshore wind speed. The data I referenced looks at overall wind power.

Given that most new wind capacity is now built offshore your data is not necessarily relevant.

The peak time for wind power varies considerably between regions so it seems reasonable that it would also vary between an onshore measuring point and a distant off shore wind farm.

As off shore capacity is being added rapidly it may be that the 2013 data represents a shift in peak generation time caused by new off shore capacity or it may be a blip.

Either way it doesn’t change the fundamental point that night time EV charging is less CO2 intensive than day time charging.

CXR94Di2 wrote:

ICE cars clearly have their advantages at present but personally the local pollution created by them is the reason I couldn’t justify buying another one. If I buy another car it will be an EV.

 

The only advantage is ability to drive 300-500miles without stopping.  

But lets look how most folk drive.  I would not drive more than 200-250miles non stop.  Its approx 4-6hours of non stop driving. That is not recommended for being alert to driving requirements.  

Some will say, but you can refuel in 5 mins and be on your way.  True, but on a long journey, one or more stops are for rest. food, toilet breaks.  This is where ‘rapid/supercharging’ comes in allowing the EV to recharge to 80/90% capacity in 30-60mins. negating virtually all extra time to recharge.

Charge whilst eating/resting etc.

Long journeys like that are few and far between.  the vast majority (95%) of journeys per day in the western world are 35 miles per day.  EVs are perfect for local commuter type trips.

What is criminal,  75% of vehicle journeys are less than 2 miles per day! 

Polluting to take you kid to school or go to supermarket.  Walk or cycle if its only 2 miles

This is my Wife’s car heading to London having done over a 100 miles so far to visit an ill relative in hospital. She will probably do a quick top charge on the return leg, whilst having her lunch

The journey in savings £7 electric overnight charging as opposed to £41 Petrol  

Zero CO2, NO2,  driving emissions 😀

 

The irony of this for me personally is that while car owners make lots of short and unnecessary journeys in the car, by comparison my car usage is completely different. My car can sit for weeks unused, I walk to local shops for groceries but when I do use it I tend to make journeys anywhere between 60 and 600 miles. Most of my journeys this year have been between 400 and 600 miles with a few 60 mile runs for good measure.

Where I live there are a lot of elderly car owners making short journeys and they are the ones who could benefit from an EV. Most of them I speak to don’t want an EV though, largely because EVs are outside their price range. There is no charging infrastructure where I live and I haven’t seen any move to improve this by the local authority. 

Where I live it is very cold much of the year and an EV would be highly impractical. As I said, my car sits around for weeks unused and an ICE car can handle this better than EV, Batteries don’t like cold. I wouldn’t be confident about going out to an EV sitting in the cold for weeks and expecting it to have a decent charge and so for me it would need constant charging even when not in use, 

This is putting aside the other impracticalities involved in long distance journeys with an EV. Making stops to recharge, high rates of discharge in winter due to using the heater, lights and blower. 

Regardless of how you feel

Regardless of how you feel personally about the suitability of an EV as a replacement for your own ICE powered car right now, EVs are here to stay.

https://europe.autonews.com/sales-market/ev-sales-surge-uk-market-down-2-august

Summary: Full EV now 3.4% of market share, increasing sales by 378% over the year to August 2019 against an overall drop in UK car sales of 1.6% in the same period.

Most of the big manufacturers are now commited to producing full electric models, representing investments in the $Billions.

Government legislation in pursuit of self imposed pollution reduction targets may not go as far as some want, and go further than others are willing to accept but they are real and they are being enforced in jurisdictions globally.

Many people in the UK currently in the fortunate position to buy an EV are able to charge it from their domestic power supply overnight on the driveway. Range is only a factor for a very small percentage of journeys and fast charger infrastructure is expanding. If needs must and you have the time, any 13amp socket is a potential fuel station.

I’ll buy into the prospect of increased total EV mileage being matched by an increase in UK renewable energy. I’ll also buy into the potential of battery technology making technological advances in storage capacity, charging rates and recycling. You sort of have to have the economic necessity of one to justify investment in the other.

None of this will take place overnight. I get the argument about holding on to older cars which are perfectly roadworthy rather than scrapping them, but eventually they will wear out, be that tomorrow or 20 years from now. At some point you will be looking to replacement and at that time you may have a choice of private ownership, shared ownership, public ownership or a complete change of lifestyle that avoids any motorised travel. What you will almost certainly have increasingly less choice over is to select an internal combustion engine option.

If there is one huge question about EVs at the moment, it is how the government are going to make money from them in terms of replacing all that fuel excise duty and VAT on excise duty that they currently rake in.

Rich_cb wrote:

You’re wrong. …….

Wind output in the UK is stronger in early evening/night peaking at about 1800-2000. Wind makes up a far larger share than solar (Which is obviously stronger in the day.) Wind capacity is growing rapidly so the evening/night peaks/

Yet your own referenced data shows that wind output peaks in late afternoon (17:00) in the UK, is well past peak by the supposed start of your “18:00 – 20:00” peak, and these “night peaks” of which you speak are a red herring. 

Having said that, even your own referenced data from a researcher at Strathclyde Uni, and averaged over a year, differs markedly from a more comprehensive 34 years worth of data published by Oxford, and which accounts for seasonal variation (your reference admits to this omission) which you will find here. https://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/publications/downloads/sinden06-windresource.pdf

And which shows the daily peak at 14:00 for most of the year, and typically has dropped by 1/3 by your supposed “18:00 – 20:00” peak!

This is actually quite convenient as UK electricity consumption peaks in late afternoon, just as wind is at its peak, and is at a minimum in early morning (4:00) when wind output is at a minimum.  

OK, so why the difference between the Strathclyde data and the Oxford data ? Well the answer is in your own paper. Your paper shows data for 3 different years, 2011, 12 and 13. 2013 is clearly different. The 2011 and 2012 data from your own paper fits closely with the Oxford 34 year average, showing peak at 14:30, and significant evening drop off. It is the 2013 data, which shows unrepresentative  evening performance (by the standards of the 3 datasets presented) which you chose to illustrate a bogus point. Andy even then, you misrepresented the time of the peak. Pretty shabby!

ICE cars clearly have their

ICE cars clearly have their advantages at present but personally the local pollution created by them is the reason I couldn’t justify buying another one. If I buy another car it will be an EV.

The only advantage is ability to drive 300-500miles without stopping.  

But lets look how most folk drive.  I would not drive more than 200-250miles non stop.  Its approx 4-6hours of non stop driving. That is not recommended for being alert to driving requirements.  

Some will say, but you can refuel in 5 mins and be on your way.  True, but on a long journey, one or more stops are for rest. food, toilet breaks.  This is where ‘rapid/supercharging’ comes in allowing the EV to recharge to 80/90% capacity in 30-60mins. negating virtually all extra time to recharge.

Charge whilst eating/resting etc.

Long journeys like that are few and far between.  the vast majority (95%) of journeys per day in the western world are 35 miles per day.  EVs are perfect for local commuter type trips.

What is criminal,  75% of vehicle journeys are less than 2 miles per day! 

Polluting to take you kid to school or go to supermarket.  Walk or cycle if its only 2 miles

This is my Wife’s car heading to London having done over a 100 miles so far to visit an ill relative in hospital. She will probably do a quick top charge on the return leg, whilst having her lunch

The journey in savings £7 electric overnight charging as opposed to £41 Petrol  

Zero CO2, NO2,  driving emissions 😀