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Dr Winston.
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January 7, 2019 at 11:04 pm #29263Dr Winston
Here we go again….and just why is Mr Porte so heavily fancied again?…He was stealing a living last season.
He’s definitely the first issue to think about this season for the purist team…isn’t he?
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Dr Winston
Btw…what channel are you
Btw…what channel are you watching it on ?
Dr Winston wrote:If I learned nothing else last year it was not to jump on rolleurs too soon because there are too many good ones all capable of letting us down, Much better to wait until they’ve shown their hand on the GC and Jersey tables before getting them….the trouble is on small stage races like this it can be too late. So often it’s better to keep the sprinter with the pts for one more stage and be sure rather than swap too early
MinardiM189 wrote:Dr Winston wrote:I literally have no idea what to make of tonight’s stage. It looks for all the world like a Belgian classic rolleur stage where they all shoot off at a pace….but is that even realistic in the heat they’ve been riding in ?….Pffft….errrr….mmmm…I’m not sure what to expect from this one, either.
Mitchelton Scott are almost certain to make it hard, hoping for Impey to win the sprint. They will probably get some help from other teams. The only top sprinters who might make it are probably Ewan & Sagan.
So interesting I might stay up and watch it.
Dr Winston
If I learned nothing else
If I learned nothing else last year it was not to jump on rolleurs too soon because there are too many good ones all capable of letting us down, Much better to wait until they’ve shown their hand on the GC and Jersey tables before getting them….the trouble is on small stage races like this it can be too late. So often it’s better to keep the sprinter with the pts for one more stage and be sure rather than swap too early
MinardiM189 wrote:Dr Winston wrote:I literally have no idea what to make of tonight’s stage. It looks for all the world like a Belgian classic rolleur stage where they all shoot off at a pace….but is that even realistic in the heat they’ve been riding in ?….Pffft….errrr….mmmm…I’m not sure what to expect from this one, either.
Mitchelton Scott are almost certain to make it hard, hoping for Impey to win the sprint. They will probably get some help from other teams. The only top sprinters who might make it are probably Ewan & Sagan.
So interesting I might stay up and watch it.
MinardiM189
Dr Winston wrote:I literally have no idea what to make of tonight’s stage. It looks for all the world like a Belgian classic rolleur stage where they all shoot off at a pace….but is that even realistic in the heat they’ve been riding in ?….Pffft….errrr….mmmm…I’m not sure what to expect from this one, either.
Mitchelton Scott are almost certain to make it hard, hoping for Impey to win the sprint. They will probably get some help from other teams. The only top sprinters who might make it are probably Ewan & Sagan.
So interesting I might stay up and watch it.
Dr Winston
I literally have no idea what
I literally have no idea what to make of tonight’s stage. It looks for all the world like a Belgian classic rolleur stage where they all shoot off at a pace….but is that even realistic in the heat they’ve been riding in ?….Pffft….errrr….mmmm…
Dr Winston
Agreed Minardi. They could be
Agreed Minardi. They could be hard fought couple of intermediate sprints. I just don’t see that they can be ignored by either the sprinters or the GC boys/rolleurs. Small margins in this race.
Dr Winston wrote:Don’t forget the stage has two early sprints which make it more than a little interesting. Impey and co have declared the need to grab seconds but Viviani and co may also be grabbing those in their fight for the pts jersey. Stage 3 is gearing up to be a really good one.Yes, it will be interesting to see who goes for those sprints. With a hard day forecast a lot of riders will probably decide to save their energy to ensure they are there at the finish.
I suspect some teams will decide the stage is too hard for their sprinters and use them to try and stop competitors getting bonus seconds, eg. Walscheid, Bauhaus,Mareczko, Van Poppel. As you others like Viviani could be after the points jersey.
We could also see a lot of attacks on the finishing circuit. Before the final 2 climbs there is a very tight hairpin which could be a great point to attack as the peloton slows and stretches out going around the corner.
teckert
Very impressive win by Bevin.
Very impressive win by Bevin. Def chance for overall imo.
Dr Winston
Don’t forget the stage has
Don’t forget the stage has two early sprints which make it more than a little interesting. Impey and co have declared the need to grab seconds but Viviani and co may also be grabbing those in their fight for the pts jersey. Stage 3 is gearing up to be a really good one.
MinardiM189 wrote:Interesting Stage 1.
Very surprised teams allowed Bevin to get in the break, he is a good outside bet for GC. Lucky for me as I have him in both purist and standard teams 🙂
Walscheid with an incredible sprint, he went long into a headwind and only that incredible late run by Viviani stopped an impressive win. Jumbo delivering VanPoppel too early yet again, looked like DVP didn’t have the legs either. Philipsen looked good & would probably got 3rd if Bauhaus didn’t deliberately block him.
Sagan looked slow, he went backwards in the final sprint, which is very unusual. Tomorrow should suit him better as the final is uphill.
Stage 3 could be the significant stage for both standard and purist. If it stays at the planned distance, we could see most of the sprinters disappear as GC teams make it tough on the finishing circuit. If it is very hot (the forecast is 40+) they might reduce the number of laps of the finishing circuit, that should give some of the sprinters a better chance to go the distance.
I’m hoping it is hot and goes the full distance.
Interesting Stage 1.
Interesting Stage 1.
Very surprised teams allowed Bevin to get in the break, he is a good outside bet for GC. Lucky for me as I have him in both purist and standard teams 🙂
Walscheid with an incredible sprint, he went long into a headwind and only that incredible late run by Viviani stopped an impressive win. Jumbo delivering VanPoppel too early yet again, looked like DVP didn’t have the legs either. Philipsen looked good & would probably got 3rd if Bauhaus didn’t deliberately block him.
Sagan looked slow, he went backwards in the final sprint, which is very unusual. Tomorrow should suit him better as the final is uphill.
Stage 3 could be the significant stage for both standard and purist. If it stays at the planned distance, we could see most of the sprinters disappear as GC teams make it tough on the finishing circuit. If it is very hot (the forecast is 40+) they might reduce the number of laps of the finishing circuit, that should give some of the sprinters a better chance to go the distance.
I’m hoping it is hot and goes the full distance.
JohnnyRemo
Whoo-Hoo! Can we end the
Whoo-Hoo! Can we end the (purist) season now, please!
Dr Winston
Aye….and that’s part of the
Aye….and that’s part of the beauty of this game. It’s quite easy to discuss who may win a race like this but they can do it without racking up many pts at all until the last day. Winning a small tour, or getting close, is not the same as getting a lot of pts….sometimes…
Condor Andy wrote:I think you’ve covered most of them, Valgren is an interesting one. I fancy him to do quite well. Other cheaper options are Pat Bevin, good Tour of Britain last year; Dries Devenyns always seems to do well here too; and then Wout Poels is cheap, but maybe the race isn’t hard enough for him. Really I don’t see many people who’ll score huge points apart from the big three.
Condor Andy
Cheers for the heads up about
Cheers for the heads up about the stages Minardi, I’ll change the info on the admin site.
Stage 1.
Stage 1.
Forecast to be very windy tomorrow and the lap of the finish circuit has been taken out to avoid the possibility dropped groups interfering with the front group.
This could also signal big problems for some of the GC candidates.
Stage 2.
Extreme heat protocol means the route has been shortened by 29km, a stretch that went through the hills has been removed. This should make is a bit easier for the heavier sprinters.
Overall.
I don’t expect Valgren and certain others to be any where near their best, too early in the year for them to be competitive.
It will be interesting to see how the likes of Prades and Ballerini go in their first outings for WT teams. Ballerini was well positioned in the TDU Classic but got caught up in the last corner crash, I fancy him to do well in TDU but he is a bit expensive for a gamble.
Interesting that some teams only arrived last week, whereas others have been in Australia since the end of December. Some riders will be much better prepared for the hot conditions than others.
Doull was sprinting for Sky yesterday because Halvorsen was feeling ill in the heat, the last race where Doull was lead sprinter was Tour of Britain in 2015 , he did very well against a top sprinter field and won the points jersey and finished 4th on GC.
Good luck to everybody for our first outing of 2019.
Condor Andy
I think you’ve covered most
I think you’ve covered most of them, Valgren is an interesting one. I fancy him to do quite well. Other cheaper options are Pat Bevin, good Tour of Britain last year; Dries Devenyns always seems to do well here too; and then Wout Poels is cheap, but maybe the race isn’t hard enough for him. Really I don’t see many people who’ll score huge points apart from the big three.
Dr Winston
Who do you fancy as outside
Who do you fancy as outside bets Andy? I can see quite a few.
I quite fancy Prades to do well after he finished really well last season….having said that this race really rests on nicking just a few seconds here and there so to that end there are very many who could do that. Ulissi, Valgren, Prades,, Sanchez…loads of them could do it. It’s ok with the standard game because you can just let the game unfold but really hard to name the right outsider for the purist game.
Condor Andy wrote:Errrr yeah, stage 4, that’s go one. Here’s hoping for late attacks on that one.
The thing is, Impey won last year because of bonus seconds on stages 2 and 4, and then only losing 8 seconds to Porte on Willunga Hill. The GC gaps are never really that huge and Willunga Hill isn’t hard enough really. I’m going sprint heavy in the purist with a couple of outside bets.
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