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Yeah....time to go climbing and rolling. Fields are getting stronger and stronger, no idea where to even start to try and unpick this one after the TT...

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MinardiM189 [694 posts] 8 months ago
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It is likely to be wet early in the week too, which always seems to play a part in Itzulia. It could come down to taking risks on a wet descent in the ITT.

Movistar are likely to be playing catch up after the ITT, which could make it interesting and Astana have a very strong team and are always likely to make things crazy. I'm really looking forard to this race.

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Dr Winston [839 posts] 8 months ago
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MinardiM189 wrote:

It is likely to be wet early in the week too, which always seems to play a part in Itzulia. It could come down to taking risks on a wet descent in the ITT.

Movistar are likely to be playing catch up after the ITT, which could make it interesting and Astana have a very strong team and are always likely to make things crazy. I'm really looking forard to this race.

That opening TT is a good one...hard to call...and made even harder that there are quite a few climbers with a decent TT in their lockers now. Maybe just have to let the game unfold rather than planning anything.

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MinardiM189 [694 posts] 8 months ago
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Dr Winston wrote:
MinardiM189 wrote:

It is likely to be wet early in the week too, which always seems to play a part in Itzulia. It could come down to taking risks on a wet descent in the ITT.

Movistar are likely to be playing catch up after the ITT, which could make it interesting and Astana have a very strong team and are always likely to make things crazy. I'm really looking forard to this race.

That opening TT is a good one...hard to call...and made even harder that there are quite a few climbers with a decent TT in their lockers now. Maybe just have to let the game unfold rather than planning anything.

Looks a nicley balanced ITT - 6.3km flat, 2.3km steep hill, 3.1km fast technical descent

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MinardiM189 [694 posts] 8 months ago
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Just had a look at stage 2. It is completely crazy towards the end, lots of really narrow gravel roads with short steep climbs.

This stage could have a huge impact for some GC riders.

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Condor Andy [810 posts] 8 months ago
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I think every stage looks like a GC stage, maybe some crazy breakaways too, but the GC guys will always be top 20. Who fancies it more. Hope I do better here than in Catalunya!

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Dr Winston [839 posts] 8 months ago
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MinardiM189 wrote:

Just had a look at stage 2. It is completely crazy towards the end, lots of really narrow gravel roads with short steep climbs.

This stage could have a huge impact for some GC riders.

Do you have a decent link for a preview Minardi?....I've only really looked at cyclingstages so far...and that's a bit thin...

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Dr Winston [839 posts] 8 months ago
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Condor Andy wrote:

I think every stage looks like a GC stage, maybe some crazy breakaways too, but the GC guys will always be top 20. Who fancies it more. Hope I do better here than in Catalunya!

It does look good for them....but also good for one or two who've been having a thinner time of late. Somebody like Gorka for instance, amongst others. Actually...did he do well in this last year and then have a bit of bad luck or something like that...seem to remeber him being in the running.

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MinardiM189 [694 posts] 8 months ago
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Dr Winston wrote:

Do you have a decent link for a preview Minardi?....I've only really looked at cyclingstages so far...and that's a bit thin...

I was looking at the RoadBook from the race website

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Dr Winston [839 posts] 8 months ago
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MinardiM189 wrote:
Dr Winston wrote:

Do you have a decent link for a preview Minardi?....I've only really looked at cyclingstages so far...and that's a bit thin...

I was looking at the RoadBook from the race website

I'll look in the morning. On a crappy old Ipad at the moment with an operating system from 1978 I think....hard work.

Actually a lot of options in this race, we could easily call it right and get it wrong....so to speak.

What do you make of Pogacar and his TT abilities?....he did well last time...A one off?...He's intriguing me again.

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MinardiM189 [694 posts] 8 months ago
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Dr Winston wrote:

I'll look in the morning. On a crappy old Ipad at the moment with an operating system from 1978 I think....hard work.

Actually a lot of options in this race, we could easily call it right and get it wrong....so to speak.

What do you make of Pogacar and his TT abilities?....he did well last time...A one off?...He's intriguing me again.

I suspect he has been working on his ITT over the winter. He has probably done wind tuneel testing too and so a big improvement isn't a complete surprise.

Look at Bettiol in Tirreno-Adriatico.

Dan Martin could surprise tomorrow too, he has spent time in the wind tunnel this winter.

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Dr Winston [839 posts] 8 months ago
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MinardiM189 wrote:
Dr Winston wrote:

I'll look in the morning. On a crappy old Ipad at the moment with an operating system from 1978 I think....hard work.

Actually a lot of options in this race, we could easily call it right and get it wrong....so to speak.

What do you make of Pogacar and his TT abilities?....he did well last time...A one off?...He's intriguing me again.

I suspect he has been working on his ITT over the winter. He has probably done wind tuneel testing too and so a big improvement isn't a complete surprise.

Look at Bettiol in Tirreno-Adriatico.

Dan Martin could surprise tomorrow too, he has spent time in the wind tunnel this winter.

Quite a few have upped their game. Fuglsang, Alaphillipe, Martinez, Yates and co all pulling rabbits out of hats...

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Condor Andy [810 posts] 8 months ago
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Might need to tinker the deadlines a wee bit, they seem a bit off. Our stage 1 deadline is in 2 1/2 hours but the Itzulia website says the stage starts in half an hour, just trying to clarify now.

Also, I've now seen 3 different profiles for today's TT. PCS has the climb at 2.2km 9.5% with steeper ramps. This is a TT for the climbers.

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Condor Andy [810 posts] 8 months ago
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Condor Andy wrote:

Might need to tinker the deadlines a wee bit, they seem a bit off. Our stage 1 deadline is in 2 1/2 hours but the Itzulia website says the stage starts in half an hour, just trying to clarify now.

Their Twitter has the first rider heading down at 14:15 local time, so I think we're accurate.

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Gecko-cyclist [54 posts] 8 months ago
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Its raining! 

Sooner than forecast yesterday so the early starters might not get an advantage now.

The technical descent should be even more fun - Could this tip the balance back in favour of roulers who can make up time on the flat?

Will anyone change bikes or are they all starting with a road bike - Froome would probably have climbed this on his TT bike but will anyone else?

Anyone could take this....

 

 

 

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Dr Winston [839 posts] 8 months ago
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Gecko-cyclist wrote:

Its raining! 

Sooner than forecast yesterday so the early starters might not get an advantage now.

The technical descent should be even more fun - Could this tip the balance back in favour of roulers who can make up time on the flat?

Will anyone change bikes or are they all starting with a road bike - Froome would probably have climbed this on his TT bike but will anyone else?

Anyone could take this....

 

 

 

Seen a couple of sites suggesting bike swaps may be in order. Tough to call this TT...not even confident on Dennis being a decent pick...

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MinardiM189 [694 posts] 8 months ago
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My team for today -

ALAPHILIPPE
KWIATOWSKI
SCHACHMANN
FUGLSANG
BEVIN
MARTINEZ
MADRAZO
ITURRIA

The final 3 riders changed about 10 times in the 30 minutes before the start.

 

Castroviejo in, Castroveijo out, Craddock in, Craddock out, Clarke in, Clarke out, Cummings in, Cummings out,  Konrad in, Konrad out, etc.

 

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jollygoodvelo [1896 posts] 8 months ago
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Kwiato, Castro, Ion Izagirre, Schachmann, Alafloop, Adam Yates, Marczynski, Grmay.

I mapped out the hilly part of the stage on RideWithGPS and it’s 1.6km long, over 10% for about 800m of that and maxing out at 18.7%., followed by a long and hairpinny descent into the town and some more tight corners.  Should be an interesting one all right, and we'll see who fancies being brave on the downhill.  Not Yates, I expect, after his unfortunate Tour stage last year.

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Condor Andy [810 posts] 8 months ago
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Today: Dennis, Kwiato, Bevin, Craddock, Martinez, Fuglsang, I Izagirre, De Marchii.

Purist: Yates, Ala, Fuglsang, De Marchii, Sanchez, Martinez, McCarthy and Madouas.

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Sniffer [699 posts] 8 months ago
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MinardiM189 wrote:

My team for today -

ALAPHILIPPE
KWIATOWSKI
SCHACHMANN
FUGLSANG
BEVIN
MARTINEZ
MADRAZO
ITURRIA

The final 3 riders changed about 10 times in the 30 minutes before the start.

 

Castroviejo in, Castroveijo out, Craddock in, Craddock out, Clarke in, Clarke out, Cummings in, Cummings out,  Konrad in, Konrad out, etc.

 

Played a similar game.  I didn't end up picking eiher Konrad or Martinez which is now looking like a mistake.

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Dr Winston [839 posts] 8 months ago
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Well  got that wrong. Should have stuck with my gut feeling about Dennis....Thinking my purist team has beaten mys standard team by a distance.

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MinardiM189 [694 posts] 8 months ago
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Tomorrow should be even more fun working out who to pick.

The last 40km include 6 stretches of very narrow gravel roads, 4 stretches of even narrower footpath and 4 or 5 Basque 'walls' thrown in the mix.

Then a relatively simple sprint with the last 600m averaging 6%.

To make things even simpler for the riders it is forecast to be wet and windy tomorrow afternoon.

PS. Don't forget the KoM points for the ITT. Schachmann 3+5, Martinez 2+4, Yates 1+3

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MinardiM189 [694 posts] 8 months ago
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Dr Winston wrote:

Well  got that wrong. Should have stuck with my gut feeling about Dennis....Thinking my purist team has beaten mys standard team by a distance.

Dennis wasn't far down at the top of the climb but lost a sackful on the descent.

What gearing were JumboVisma using ? Two of their riders fell off after coming to a standstill near the summit of the climb.

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Condor Andy [810 posts] 8 months ago
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MinardiM189 wrote:

PS. Don't forget the KoM points for the ITT. Schachmann 3+5, Martinez 2+4, Yates 1+3

I won't! Saw a comment on Reddit that the climb counts towards the comp so went to look it up and added it to the stage scoring this morning. Cheers for the heads up smiley

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Dr Winston [839 posts] 8 months ago
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MinardiM189 wrote:
Dr Winston wrote:

Well  got that wrong. Should have stuck with my gut feeling about Dennis....Thinking my purist team has beaten mys standard team by a distance.

Dennis wasn't far down at the top of the climb but lost a sackful on the descent.

What gearing were JumboVisma using ? Two of their riders fell off after coming to a standstill near the summit of the climb.

I thought I saw that Minardi, but then thought I must have misread it. Did he not puncture or something on the way down...seems like a lot to lose.

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Dr Winston [839 posts] 8 months ago
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MinardiM189 wrote:

Tomorrow should be even more fun working out who to pick.

The last 40km include 6 stretches of very narrow gravel roads, 4 stretches of even narrower footpath and 4 or 5 Basque 'walls' thrown in the mix.

Then a relatively simple sprint with the last 600m averaging 6%.

To make things even simpler for the riders it is forecast to be wet and windy tomorrow afternoon.

PS. Don't forget the KoM points for the ITT. Schachmann 3+5, Martinez 2+4, Yates 1+3

Just looked at that stage for tomorrow....it has the potential to undo a lot of good that the GC boys did for themselves today. What’s your thinking?....breakaway with the GC boys staying close at hand would be my thoughts. A win for one of many of dozens of potential winners....Lutsenko, Sanchez, Ulissi etc...

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MinardiM189 [694 posts] 8 months ago
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Dr Winston wrote:
MinardiM189 wrote:

Tomorrow should be even more fun working out who to pick.

The last 40km include 6 stretches of very narrow gravel roads, 4 stretches of even narrower footpath and 4 or 5 Basque 'walls' thrown in the mix.

Then a relatively simple sprint with the last 600m averaging 6%.

To make things even simpler for the riders it is forecast to be wet and windy tomorrow afternoon.

PS. Don't forget the KoM points for the ITT. Schachmann 3+5, Martinez 2+4, Yates 1+3

Just looked at that stage for tomorrow....it has the potential to undo a lot of good that the GC boys did for themselves today. What’s your thinking?....breakaway with the GC boys staying close at hand would be my thoughts. A win for one of many of dozens of potential winners....Lutsenko, Sanchez, Ulissi etc...

Difficult to call.

I expect some GC teams to try and make it hard at the end as they could quite easily put UAE & EFE in difficulty and put their GC contenders out of contention.

Chances of crashes on the narrow roads are high, as are the chances of punctures. Riders risk getting dropped waiting for team cars.

The break could win it as a lot of teams don't want rivals taking bonus seconds. Although I think Bora will want to keep the jersey so probably won't allow a huge gap to develop.

 

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Dr Winston [839 posts] 8 months ago
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MinardiM189 wrote:
Dr Winston wrote:
MinardiM189 wrote:

Tomorrow should be even more fun working out who to pick.

The last 40km include 6 stretches of very narrow gravel roads, 4 stretches of even narrower footpath and 4 or 5 Basque 'walls' thrown in the mix.

Then a relatively simple sprint with the last 600m averaging 6%.

To make things even simpler for the riders it is forecast to be wet and windy tomorrow afternoon.

PS. Don't forget the KoM points for the ITT. Schachmann 3+5, Martinez 2+4, Yates 1+3

Just looked at that stage for tomorrow....it has the potential to undo a lot of good that the GC boys did for themselves today. What’s your thinking?....breakaway with the GC boys staying close at hand would be my thoughts. A win for one of many of dozens of potential winners....Lutsenko, Sanchez, Ulissi etc...

Difficult to call.

I expect some GC teams to try and make it hard at the end as they could quite easily put UAE & EFE in difficulty and put their GC contenders out of contention.

Chances of crashes on the narrow roads are high, as are the chances of punctures. Riders risk getting dropped waiting for team cars.

The break could win it as a lot of teams don't want rivals taking bonus seconds. Although I think Bora will want to keep the jersey so probably won't allow a huge gap to develop.

 

We had a similar looking stage at some point last year...do you recall it?....maybe it was one at the Giro. If you can bring it to mind let me know so I can see how it planned out. It was just a very long ending on roads only about two widths wide and rolling all the way. That’s all I can remember.

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MinardiM189 [694 posts] 8 months ago
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Dr Winston wrote:

We had a similar looking stage at some point last year...do you recall it?....maybe it was one at the Giro. If you can bring it to mind let me know so I can see how it planned out. It was just a very long ending on roads only about two widths wide and rolling all the way. That’s all I can remember.

Stage 12 of the Vuelta ?

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Dr Winston [839 posts] 8 months ago
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MinardiM189 wrote:
Dr Winston wrote:

We had a similar looking stage at some point last year...do you recall it?....maybe it was one at the Giro. If you can bring it to mind let me know so I can see how it planned out. It was just a very long ending on roads only about two widths wide and rolling all the way. That’s all I can remember.

Stage 12 of the Vuelta ?

Yep...that was it. Just checked the results and it was a reall man up of all sorts of riders. Do you think a similar.ar stage and result?

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Dr Winston [839 posts] 8 months ago
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Yeah....Won the stage in the purist game....all down hill from here.

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