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So what's everyone make of tomorrow?

Sagan stage win? or a break?

65 comments

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THE SILENT ASSASSIN [551 posts] 4 years ago
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Cannot see it myself....Although nothing would surprise me with him...Personally think that a classics type rider will win tomorrow though...Put two riders in my team who have done nothing so far, but then how this tour has gone for me I have nothing to lose....  32

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spongebob [277 posts] 4 years ago
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Couple of French, an Australian and an alien on my team.

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dave atkinson [6330 posts] 4 years ago
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only making one change. chased the break on stage 14 and it was a disaster. playing safe this time.

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TERatcliffe26 [4727 posts] 4 years ago
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4 changes for me  39 mistake, maybe  39

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Alan Tullett [1570 posts] 4 years ago
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Got a few riders who might do something, mainly Rolland who's going to need the points on a stage like today if he is to have any chance of polka dot glory (or infamy). Nieve as well if he is also interested in the jersey and given his superior HC finishing ability he's the most likely person to win it I'd say (suspected this from when he got the 3 points after Rolland early on).

A couple of cheapies, El Fares and Le Mevel. Really need Le Mevel to do something as someone else has the same purist team as me but with El Fares (9) over Le Mevel (0). Both have been in my overall since the beginning.

Someone else who's been trying to get into breaks and isn't bad at TTing.

Sagan could well win this from a break but not going to risk it.

Very little wind tomorrow.

Will use 3/5 for the ITT and have 4 for the big ones. That's when I'm going all out for mountain point glory!

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TERatcliffe26 [4727 posts] 4 years ago
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Rolland on this stage really? id have thought he will be saving himself for thursday and friday where the really points are. Just a Cat 2 and 3 before the cat 2 close to the finish today.

My team looks like a very very big risk based on what you have said Alan.

put it this way I axed Froome, Quintana, Ten Dam and Hoogerland

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Alan Tullett [1570 posts] 4 years ago
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TERatcliffe26 wrote:

Rolland on this stage really? id have thought he will be saving himself for thursday and friday where the really points are. Just a Cat 2 and 3 before the cat 2 close to the finish today.

My team looks like a very very big risk based on what you have said Alan.

put it this way I axed Froome, Quintana, Ten Dam and Hoogerland

But Rolland can get points on the little hills but not the big finish. He'll need points tomorrow along with maybe stage glory plus points on some of the other climbs on 18, 19, 20 but he doesn't seem capable of scoring on the HC finishes, which have double points, so he's going to need everything else going to have even an outside chance of winning. I don't think he has a cat in hell's chance of winning one of the big stages, way beyond him from what we have seen but he might win tomorrow if it's a very small group at the end and no Sagan, who might fancy his chances but don't want to waste a transfer on that supposition. Going more for a win on 17-20 as tomorrow a bit unpredictable.

If I was going to bet money I'd put it on Nieve for the polka dots. Wonder what the odds were before stage 8? Might still be quite good but don't want to go down that slippery path to penury.

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chokofingrz [407 posts] 4 years ago
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I predict Julien Simon to ride in the breakaway again - although he's too big a risk to spend 2 transfers on. I'll also make a pretty bold statement and say that Europcar will be represented in the break!

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chrisdstripes [1741 posts] 4 years ago
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I'm expecting a large break to stay away today, but am not really chasing it, more saving transfers for the more predictable stages. Still have Voeckler and Lutsenko in from Saturday so last chance for them to do something before I get rid tomorrow.

Agree with TER, 2 Cat 2s is no good for Rolland, he needs big points to win the KOM, and the only way he'll do that is if a long break stays away on Thurs/Sat. (Plus the early HCs on Friday). But I guess he still might go for the early KOMs today in the first 50km and then drop back and let the break go?

Surprised you dropped Hoogerland TER, seems like one of the stages he's more likely to feature in? But if it allowed you to squeeze someone better in, then fair enough. He's actually 4th favourite for the stage on Paddy Power, so I'm hoping they know something I don't, and am keeping him just in case...

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The Hoggs [3496 posts] 4 years ago
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Made 2 changes for today switching back the 2 i should have kept in for Ventoux. It's a complete lottery on who wins today, if the break forms with no one less than 20 mins behind Froome i can see it staying away with Sky, Saxo and Movistar keeping their powder dry for tommorrow.

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drheaton [3323 posts] 4 years ago
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The main argument for Rolland in the break today is that he effectively get's an easy day tomorrow during the TT so he can afford to have a go today and Thursday without needing to go flat out in the TT.

Also, yesterday Europcar renewed their sponsorship of the team so I expect something big from the team today, could be either Voeckler or Rolland.

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TERatcliffe26 [4727 posts] 4 years ago
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Basically its because ive gone all or bust as big ground wont be made in the mountains really, most teams will be similar, or at least similar scoring, unless someone chases the break, but noone near the lead will i don't think.

im currently 19th, and 10th is only 30 points away and 5th 52 points away, so for me today could be make or break, as tomrrow will be difficult to predict in my opinion and my team will stay the same bar one change.

Chris I needed to drop Hoogerland for El Fares so that I could get Gerrans in, as he is the one that could make a difference for me today if the stage pans out how I had it in my head.

Here goes

Sagan
Mollema
Fuglsang
Kwiatkowski
Gerrans
El Fares
Mederal
Fsicher

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chrisdstripes [1741 posts] 4 years ago
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Like your style TER, that's what I would do in your position, take a risk to try and get up into the top 10.

My team is totally reliant on having someone in the break, and it staying away.

Froome
Quintana
De Gendt
Voeckler
Lutsenko
Hoogerland
Le Mevel
El Fares
Mederel

Lutsenko and Voeckler out tomorrow leaves me with transfers in hand and enough credits to have the guys I want for Alpe d'Huez, but could really do with a massive slice of luck today and 2 in the break, otherwise the lost points on Saturday and today will have been too much of a penalty for having the right team for the rest of the week.

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TERatcliffe26 [4727 posts] 4 years ago
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The problem I see with a break staying away today is that its Sagans last shot realistically at a stage victory in the race so I think Cannondale will bring it back together

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Hilltown_Ian [9 posts] 4 years ago
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I fancy Gilbert today to build on his strong showing on Ventoux - stronger than I expected anyway for sure. Looks like he might be finding some form and time is running out for him and BMC to do something. Albasini and Paulinho two more picks for me today too as I also think a good breakaway group will take this one to the finish.

http://cyclingbetting.co.uk/tour-de-france-stage-16-preview

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drheaton [3323 posts] 4 years ago
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All out break chasing for me.

Out: Froome, Quintana, Nieve, Pinot (what a waste...)
In: Voeckler, Gilbert, Kwiatkowski, Bakelandts

Giving me

Kwiatkowski (for a potential small group sprint finish and the TT)
Voeckler (for the break)
Gilbert (for the break)
Bakelandts (for the break)
De Gendt (for the break)
Navarro (not sure why)
El Fares
Mederel
Fischer

Probably ditch Navarro tomorrow plus Voeckler, Bakelandts and Gilbert

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Alan Tullett [1570 posts] 4 years ago
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I've got

Froome
Rolland (some MPs at least - hopefully more - he was more for Sun and was 15" from getting in a break that might then have gone away)
Quintana
De Gendt (snap chris - could go in a break and good for ITT - my only change for today)
Nieve (might go in a break- well down on GC - 18 mins; 3rd in MP comp so might go for some points to give himself a chance of wearing polka dots on Thurs)
Kadri (could be in a break - can win on his own)
Le Mevel (need him to so something for my purists - he's tried twice)
El Fares (need him NOT to do anything for my purists)
Bonnet (got taken out in the Greipel crash - never mind)

3 changes tomorrow should give me a decent ITT line-up with 5/6 scorers, giving me 4 for Alpe d'Huez. No idea what I'm going to do with that one yet. Will have to put my thinking cap on!

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Alan Tullett [1570 posts] 4 years ago
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TERatcliffe26 wrote:

Basically its because ive gone all or bust as big ground wont be made in the mountains really, most teams will be similar, or at least similar scoring, unless someone chases the break, but noone near the lead will i don't think.

im currently 19th, and 10th is only 30 points away and 5th 52 points away, so for me today could be make or break, as tomrrow will be difficult to predict in my opinion and my team will stay the same bar one change.

Chris I needed to drop Hoogerland for El Fares so that I could get Gerrans in, as he is the one that could make a difference for me today if the stage pans out how I had it in my head.

Here goes

Sagan
Mollema
Fuglsang
Kwiatkowski
Gerrans
El Fares
Mederal
Fsicher

Good luck with that one. Bold pick and could work. Prefer to go for bold picks on stages with a bigger return though. To make it worthwhile Sagan needs to score 25 or 35+ depending on what you're doing on the ITT and you may well be planning not to have Froome.

Not sure about your theory that you can't make up big ground in the mountains. I went from about 200th to 20th last year on the two big mountain stages and this year there are 3 with big points available. That's where I'm going to be taking risks, though I haven't decided who with yet.

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stevemarks [472 posts] 4 years ago
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I have really faded badly in this competition after a good start. Messed up a couple of stages where I really wasn't concentrating properly. I think I have done it again.

I am left with
Froome and Mollema Guaranteed points and Froome for TT
De Gendt and Fedrigo for breakaway and I will probably keep De Gendt as I expect him to do something big in the last week. Kwiatowski should be good for some points next two days.

Then it's fillers Le Mevel, Bonnet, Marino and Mederel, hoping at least one of them can get in the break sometime. I have 4 transfers for tomorrow but will probably only need 1 or 2. I will be considering Kreuziger, Nieve, Quintana and some guys for a surprise.

Good luck to everyone this week its been fun so far and despite the relentless going backwards of my team I am still enjoying it.

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thefatcyclist [543 posts] 4 years ago
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Glad I don't have to make these decisions, but for what it is worth I fancy Albasini, possibly. The bookie that has the initials PP has Sagan 5/1 favourite, but there are some big prices on possibles if you like a bet. Albasini is 22/1, Quintana 125/1, simon 25/1. Bakelants 25/1 Kwia' 25/1, Dan Martin 66/1

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Alan Tullett [1570 posts] 4 years ago
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drheaton wrote:

The main argument for Rolland in the break today is that he effectively get's an easy day tomorrow during the TT so he can afford to have a go today and Thursday without needing to go flat out in the TT.

Also, yesterday Europcar renewed their sponsorship of the team so I expect something big from the team today, could be either Voeckler or Rolland.

If he gets in the break today and gets all 3 KOMs he'll be close to level on points with Quintana. There are 2 cat 2s in the ITT. If he goes flat out from the start maybe he could get the best split for the first one and then he'd wear the jersy again on the Alpe d'Huez stage, which is the queen stage, as long as Quintana doesn't get too many points himself. Whether he can get enough points after that is another question. If he goes in a break on 18 or better 19 as that's the one with two HCs at the beginning then I expect Nieve to go with him. That could be an interesting battle. Even if yellow and green look to be tied up, polka dots is at least up for grabs and is far more difficult to win this year than any other for a long time.

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Alan Tullett [1570 posts] 4 years ago
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thefatcyclist wrote:

Glad I don't have to make these decisions, but for what it is worth I fancy Albasini, possibly. The bookie that has the initials PP has Sagan 5/1 favourite, but there are some big prices on possibles if you like a bet. Albasini is 22/1, Quintana 125/1, simon 25/1. Bakelants 25/1 Kwia' 25/1, Dan Martin 66/1

Dan Martin might be worth a bet. It's the kind of profile he likes and he's done it once already. Could all depend on the last descent; Sagan can descend well. Evans anyone; he's got nothing to lose, has he? More his kind of finish than Gilbert and for all their money, more than Sky I think, they've done nothing as has been noted above.

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chrisdstripes [1741 posts] 4 years ago
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Just noticed my purist team should hit 10k pts for the season today. Still 5th overall but TER has Quintana so expect to be back down to 6th by Sunday...

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jollygoodvelo [1682 posts] 4 years ago
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Martin, Sagan and Fedrigo in for me. Keeping Kwiatkowski and Quintana too, you never know...

Wish there were more £3m DSs to choose from.  3

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drheaton [3323 posts] 4 years ago
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20 riders away, includes Voigt and Sagan.

Two DNS - Pinot and Danny van Poppel.

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drheaton [3323 posts] 4 years ago
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Group of 20 has 30 seconds:

Sagan (CAN), Voigt (RTL), Didier (RTL), Hansen (LTB), Bennati (TST), Roche (TST), Brutt (KAT), Kadri (ALM), Ribon (ALM), Costa (MOV), Rojas (MOV), Mori (LAM), Boom (BEL), Velits (OPQ), Navardauskas (GRS), Degenkolb (ARG), Dumoulin (ARG), De Gendt (VCD), and Vuillermoz (SOJ)

Got De Gendt in there but Bakelandts and Gilbert both missed it. In fact, BMC look to have missed it entirely as do Europcar. Wonder if this will get pulled back or not.

If not then I wonder if Contador will try and do something with Roche up the road.

EDIT: FDJ missed the move too and are trying to haul it back.

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johnny2names [198 posts] 4 years ago
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TERatcliffe26 wrote:

Basically its because ive gone all or bust as big ground wont be made in the mountains really, most teams will be similar, or at least similar scoring, unless someone chases the break, but noone near the lead will i don't think.

im currently 19th, and 10th is only 30 points away and 5th 52 points away, so for me today could be make or break, as tomrrow will be difficult to predict in my opinion and my team will stay the same bar one change.

Chris I needed to drop Hoogerland for El Fares so that I could get Gerrans in, as he is the one that could make a difference for me today if the stage pans out how I had it in my head.

Here goes

Sagan
Mollema
Fuglsang
Kwiatkowski
Gerrans
El Fares
Mederal
Fsicher

what's that, 19th, that's me surely? oh wait, its both of us  1 good analysis of our situation, and yet i couldnt bring myself/didnt have the balls to go for it like you. Just struggled with the risk/reward of ditching guarranteed GC points for lottery on the break-away, and sacrificing transfers for it. having said that i went for a gilbert punt! I wasnt sure if a break would work with sagan in it, or whether canondale could bring back the break all by themselves.
- now we know he's in the early break! drats. and no gilbert  2

my line up:

froome
mollema
quintana
navarro
gilbert
lemevel
el fares
mederel
bonnet

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chrisdstripes [1741 posts] 4 years ago
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I think it'll be at least another 20km before this settles down and we know who's actually in the break. And Saxo look like they might try something again...

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chrisdstripes [1741 posts] 4 years ago
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Hansen (LTB), Gilbert and Quinziato (BMC), Gallopin (RTL), Gautier and Voeckler (EUC), Kadri and Riblon (ALM), Roche (TST), Trofimov (KAT), Astarloza (EUS), Costa (MOV), Coppel and Navarro (COF), Mori (LAM), Velits (OPQ), Navardauskas (GRS), Albasini and Meyer (OGE), Dumoulin (ARG), De Gendt and Hoogerland (VCD) and Marino (SOJ).

The peloton is now 2'35" behind.

The escape group is at the 38km mark.

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stevemarks [472 posts] 4 years ago
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Hansen (LTB), Gilbert and Quinziato (BMC), Gallopin (RTL), Gautier and Voeckler (EUC), Kadri and Riblon (ALM), Roche (TST), Trofimov (KAT), Astarloza (EUS), Costa (MOV), Coppel and Navarro (COF), Mori (LAM), Velits (OPQ), Navardauskas (GRS), Albasini and Meyer (OGE), Dumoulin (ARG), De Gendt and Hoogerland (VCD) and Marino (SOJ).

The peloton is now 2'35" behind.

The escape group is at the 38km mark.

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