Conundrum and question

by Gkam84   April 6, 2011  

Ok, so Cav won the Scheldeprijs Classic today, which made me look at him again for the Paris - Roubaix

But my question and i cant find stats or answer anywhere is

How often is the PR won by breakaways?

Anyone got stats or a percentage of wins with mass sprints over breakaways?

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What makes the PR good is that is can be won by a breakaway - and if it isn't it is a usually a small selection of riders. No stats to hand but I would say that there is seldom a bunch sprint as per TdF flat stage. This is what makes the northern classics so good, they are fecking hard and you need to be fecking hard to win one. Cue Sean Kelly "Well yes, you're certainly on the rivet for this one". Translates to it's death out there... You can't fake it and you can't sit in and win in the last 100m - of course if Cav got near the line with a few others you'd put money on him, but he's not really big enough and strong enough to do this kind of riding. Boonen and those guys are massive (well, for cyclists) in comparison to Cav. I'm not saying he's slow and weak mind, but I wouldn't put your cash on him...

Can't wait Smile

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posted by alotronic [247 posts]
7th April 2011 - 22:53

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The PR is only 258km this year and Cav won last week at a 200km race, so not to bad, i think if he can hold in on the climbs he has a good chance

Awesome sprinter, just lacking in his hill ability, but hey, you cant have everything

So i think he's in with a chance unless Boonen or Cancellara blow the field to bits.

Its a shame the schlecks and voigt are doing the basque, else i would put all my money on Team Leopard

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posted by Gkam84 [8686 posts]
7th April 2011 - 23:05

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Climbs? Hills? You might want to have a look at the profile Wink

http://www.letour.fr/2011/PRX/COURSE/us/le_parcours.html

(Edit: Forgot this quirk of ASO websites - they always default back to the first tab. So you need to click on "Profile of the stage" under "Maps and routes")

It has been said, though, that the cobbled sections themselves are the hills of Paris-Roubaix.

I looked back over the top ten of the last decade or so on Wikipedia. Not a bunch sprint in sight, one year there was a six or seven man sprint for the non-podium places. Rarely, you might get a three-way sprint for the podium.

Typically, the top ten will come home in dribs and drabs, some riders on their own, some in pairs or threes, rarely more.

As Geraint Thomas said when we spoke to him about the race, the bunch sprints at Paris-Roubaix aren't at the end of the race, they're at the start of the cobbled sections and particularly at the more difficult ones seen as key to the race.

That, and the fact that the riders get strung out and gaps are caused by crashes etc, as well as riders going off the front, means that the field is split all over the place well before the end - it's not like a long, flat Tour de France stage where a break can get ten minutes up the road before being reeled back in and 198 riders cross the line to be given the same time.

Very difficult to envisage a sprinter such as Cav or Farrar winning this. That isn't to say they couldn't be fighting out their own private sprint finish in a large bunch further down the order, which could be worth some Fantasy points should you pick them.

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posted by Simon_MacMichael [7914 posts]
7th April 2011 - 23:26

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Thanks for that Simon

I just couldn't find any stats on it, I know there are not really any climbs and hills in the PR, I just have a feeling HTC might be able to keep Cav safe and in a decent placing if it doesn't split to much at the front then anyone could have a chance, just seems he's coming back into some sort of form after a dreadful start to his session

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posted by Gkam84 [8686 posts]
8th April 2011 - 0:00

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Gkam84 wrote:
I just have a feeling HTC might be able to keep Cav safe and in a decent placing if it doesn't split to much at the front

I dont think Cav is team leader for Roubaix - HTC seem to be backing Bernhard Eisel, and Cav will more likely work for Eisel than the other way round. But I'd still be surprised if HTC got a man on the podium (even if Goss's amazing form from MSR has carried this far) - Spartacus is already talking about making people 'fasten their seatbelts' from the front and that's nigh on guaranteed to blow it apart when he does.

Love PR - gotta be my favourite race.

posted by step-hent [651 posts]
8th April 2011 - 10:11

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