[MinardiM189]

Not a lot of climbers in the

Not a lot of climbers in the race.

If a decent break gets away who is going to control things?

A surprise package from a smaller team to take GC  with a break that stays away.

[MinardiM189]

Dr Winston wrote:

Really….gosh. I thought he looked really strong at the TDU, i’m surprised…I changed my team umpteen times but he never left. You leap frogged me…I just stood still.

Van Poppel was in my team throughout too. He did look good in the TDU especially Stage3 which was difficult.

At the end of the day my low cost rider made the difference.

Luke Rowe had finished 5th (2017), 13th (2016) and 4th (2015) so I thought he was a good bet for a top10. In 2017 Sky raced for Rowe and I thought they would do the same last night.

[MinardiM189]

Dr Winston wrote:

Hard race to read. Poor day for me but i’ll take heart that quite a few regulars also found it hard to predict. What happened to Van Poppel?

The team said he didn’t have the legs on the day.

I did OK and moved up a few places. 🙂

[MinardiM189]

MinardiM189 wrote:

I’m expecting a much harder race than last year.

Teams didn’t really attack from the bottom of the final climb last year. LottoJumbo controlled the pace (racing for Battaglin?) until Kennaugh attacked close to the top.

This year I expect teams to go hard from the bottom of the climb and a group of 20 to stay away.

Well I got that prediction wrong, probably the easiest I have seen them go on the finishing circuit.

Good job I hedged my bets 🙂

 

[MinardiM189]

I’m expecting a much harder

I’m expecting a much harder race than last year.

Teams didn’t really attack from the bottom of the final climb last year. LottoJumbo controlled the pace (racing for Battaglin?) until Kennaugh attacked close to the top.

This year I expect teams to go hard from the bottom of the climb and a group of 20 to stay away.

[MinardiM189]

Schwarzmann not Schachmann

Schwarzmann not Schachmann for Bora.

[MinardiM189]

Dr Winston wrote:

A high quality group of about a dozen or so took it up last time. That profile is tasty for a slingshot but catchable at the same time. How big is that rise mid way home after the last climb? Do you know?

I watched the replay of last year, the final small bump isn’t significant, if you attack there you may get 2 seconds gap but use a lot of energy to get it.  Some riders tried attacking there last year and were brought back straight away.

If a decent group gets away and works together it can quite easily stick. Last year the front group spent most of their time attacking each other and the chase group caught them in the last 100m, although McCarthy did hang on for the win.

I think the problem for the front group is always going to be the same, people like Impey will probably be in the front group and climbers have no chance if Impey, etc. are still there at the finish.

[MinardiM189]

Condor Andy wrote:

We’re discussing now. The next race after Cadel is likely to be Tour of Oman (16th Feb), Algarve (20th Feb) if Oman isn’t a popular choice. UAE (24th Feb) after that.

Spring Classics starts at Omloop (2nd March).

I would liketo see the UAE tour included with Oman filling the big gap in WT programme in February.

The new UAE tour is now a combination of the old UAE and Dubai Tours and looks interesting. One TTT, 2 mountain finishes, an uphill sprint stage and 3 sprint stages, and always the chance of croswinds in the desert.

The Tour of Oman is always quite interesting and throws up a few surprises, it also finishes before the UAE tour begins. A problem with Oman is the reduced number of WT teams (7) but at least the other teams are all Proconti.  Another problem has been limited TV coverage.

I think the Algarve race is a bit boring and predictable. Again the number of WT teams is limited (12 this year) but with only 3 PCT teams, the other 9 are small Portuguese teams.

[MinardiM189]

Is there any news on which

Is there any news on which upcoming races will be covered?

I need to plan my holidays 

[MinardiM189]

Dr Winston wrote:

Are we getting a Tour of Colombia?

Whether we are or not I’m utterly amazed at the quality of climbing field they’re managing to put together. To then set a race with four flat stages one hilly stage and just one summit on the final day in a country like Colombia, and with a field like that, just seems a bit daft.  Who exactly decided that mad route? I can’t help but think they’re missing their chance to propel themselves forward.

I guess that teams and riders are getting paid a lot of money to participate in Columbia. For Froome & Nibali to attend they must be paying a lot.

During the season races generally get more and more difficult as they build up to the Giro & Tour.

A difficult parcours at this time of the season will probably do more harm than good and riders probably wouldn’t participate.

The promoters of the race will want to show off the local heroes – Gaviria, Hodeg, Uran, Bernal, Quintana, etc. and make them look good by paying for a few big stars to come along.

I actually  prefer that races like this aren’t included in the competition as it is not serious racing.

[MinardiM189]

Dr Winston]

Dr Winston wrote:

Yes I do think Viviani will go for those sprint pts…and Sagan. Or put it another way…it would suit quite a few GC teams if those two went up the road in a group on a battle for the pts jersey standings and kept Impey well away from the bonus seconds…they certainly wouldn’t fight to bring them back.

Got up to 22nd now but it could have been so much better with Ewan. [quote=MinardiM189]

Looks like you have a few transfers left too.

You have managed this race much better than I did. If Ewan hadn’t been relegated I would be much further back.

[MinardiM189]

Dr Winston wrote:

Damn….Caleb Ewan disqualified and no Viviani is gonna hurt….

I went the other way and chose Viviani over Ewan,  the relegation for Ewan is great news for anyone who didn’t have him.

Given how close the standard competition can be at the end of the year, this stage could be the difference between winning and losing.

So you think Viviani will go for the intermediate sprint points?

The only way Viviani can win is if Bevin does not finish. I have a feeling  Sagan will try and get in the break, we could have both Sagan & Viviani.

I took a punt on Gibbons, which looks like it backfired, it was Gibbons, Sanchez or Guerreiro. Gibbons did as expected but both Guerreiro and Sanchez did better than I expected. Hopefully Gibbons can stay with the group up Willalunga and surprise everbody again, however I expect Guerreiro to be the best of the three tomorrow.

 

[MinardiM189]

Dr Winston wrote:

A really tricky day to call tactically. The four GC boys of Porte, Bennett, Poels and Oods May just end up dragging Sanchez, Bevin, Impey and Ulissi towards the sprint if they do that….would the GC boys not prefer Ewan and Viviani and co to take all the bonus seconds.?….Mmmm…crikey….mmmm again….dunno….you might be right.

I have 5 transfers left and beginning to wonder where I will use them all.

I include Impey & Bevin among the GC guys. The climb is nowhere near hard enough to drop them anyway.

Mitchelton Scott could make it a hard start to set up Impey for some time bonuses.

Impey has said tomorrows stage should be ‘interesting’ and that  ‘we need to be aggressive wherever we can’.

I have 5 transfers left too.

[MinardiM189]

Dr Winston wrote:

I think if we want to win a race we have to be prepared to get on riders early and hope they perform as expected…just like Haas and McCarthy…perfectly good picks but if they’re not quite on song then it blows up in our faces…but it doesn’t mean they were bad picks…just early picks. If we want to do well overall for the season it’s far better to wait and accept not winning the race but just doing well in every/most races and grinding it out.

Normally I try to leave a bit of flexibility in my team but this time went a bit ‘gung ho’. I compounded it by bringing in Poels for stage 4, my choice of sprinters for tomorrow is now limited.

Hopefully someone makes tomorrows stage slightly crazy.

It starts uphill then the first intermediate sprint is after 47km just after the KoM.

Some teams could go hard from the start, drop the top sprinters and go for bonus seconds with their GC rider. Depending who is in the front group and what the gaps are it could go all the way.

Looking at the course and weather forecast there will be a 20-30kph cross tailwind for the final 40km.  Again this could see things go crazy.

 

[MinardiM189]

Dr Winston wrote:

What do I type into Facebook to watch it?

The facebook page is – https://www.facebook.com/globalcyclingnetwork/

or do a search fro GCN and it comes up.

[Author]

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