[Rich_cb]

Car ownership has apparently fallen for 2 years in a row now.

WFH, vehicle shortages and expensive fuel are all being touted as possible causes.

Together with a rise in new cycling infrastructure and a broader cost of living squeeze could we have finally passed peak car?

I’m going to optimistically break Betteridge’s law and say yes I think we’ve passed the peak.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/31/car-ownership-falls-drivers-hit-surging-cost-fuel/

Topic

[quiff]

We are due to move soon and

We are due to move soon and will have an Enterprise car club car much closer to home – definitely plan to give it a go.     

[Rich_cb]

Give Enterprise Car Club a go
Give Enterprise Car Club a go.

I’m a member and there’s usually good availability even at very short notice as there are quite a lot of their cars scattered around Cardiff.

It’s pretty cheap to join so could try it before you ditch the car to see if it works out for you.

I worked out owning a car was costing me about £2500 a year so even with hiring cars/taxis/car club I reckon I’m still saving nearly £2000 a year.

[ktache]

There is a junction on my

There is a junction on my commute that I tend to use as a bit of a yardstick to register congestion, and it has yet to return to the madness of the before times. At its busiest, more like a quiet Friday, will it ever, who knows, driving patterns change.

You don’t need much reduction in traffic volumes to reduce congestion a lot, but this can drive up driving as it seen to be quicker…

The bike shed at work is busier than I have ever seen it. Putting that down to high fuel prices and that being a bit of a nudge, especially with a bit of good weather.

[quiff]

You two are describing me

You two are describing me past and me present! Pre-pandemic, lived in London, had a car which was only ever used for long journeys out of London. Never even contemplated using it around town because it was so unpleasant and slower than cycling / bus / tube. I now live in Cardiff (commuting to London once a week by bike/train) and it’s being used even less – basically only holidays and weekend trips where all the family needs to travel. I’m curious about going totally car-less and just hiring / car-clubbing as necessary, but reckon the savings would be relatively modest and it makes it harder to be spontaneous.                 

[kil0ran]

I’ve been driving since 1987

I’ve been driving since 1987 and I’ve definitely seen a dip since the end of the lockdowns. I’d say that traffic is back to early 90s levels, at least for my occasional trip up the M3 to London. That’s very significant as the early 90s was a period of recession with unemployment at around 10% and fewer options for non-car travel. 

Due to peak train fares being ridiculous I drive from south west Hampshire, park in Richmond, and then get the District Line in. Most recent trip it only took me 15 minutes from Richmond train station to the M3, and that was leaving at about 5pm. That’s unprecedented in my experience. Even heading into London in the morning I didn’t hit stop/start traffic until the first roundabout west of Twickers. 

Out here in the sticks we’ve been invaded by the WFH crowd, three new families in our street (20 houses) are from London. Big influx at school too due to a new estate going in. Sell London home, buy relatively massive rural idyll, stick £200k in the bank.

There’s been a big uptick in people buying classic (80s/90s) cars too, although that’s being blunted by fuel prices. Perfectly sensible to run a V12 Jag as a station car if you’re only getting the train once or twice a month though. Mileage allowance just about covers the petrol cost. 

Personally, we’re still a two car family. I’d love to replace one with a cargo bike but the only route to school is frequented with tipper trucks and their drivers who seem perfectly happy to do 50mph on a rural B-road. 

[Owd Big 'Ead]

As someone who was heavily

As someone who was heavily car dependent throughout the pandemic it has been a revelation to move out of the sticks into a city centre once more. My commute has become a 2 minute walk or 10 minute cycle depending upon which workplace I am attending, a cinch in comparison to my previous arrangements, either a 1 hour drive or 35 minute train journey with a 20 minute cycle at the end.

As of the beginning of April I have gone from being a 2 car owner, both SUV’s to a 2 bicycle owner (soon to be 3, n+1). Last year I drove 30,000 miles, this year it should be less than 500.

Unfortunately, this doesn’t signal the start of a downward spiral for car ownership, but the government have made reducing car ownership one of the cornerstones they promote in achieving net zero by 2050. The aim is to reduce car ownership to below 24m (yes I am trying to find the original source), but as ever it’s a woolly idea they can hide behind when they glaringly miss their objectives somewhere down the line.

Personally, unless the government takes a strong lead on this, all we are likely to see is mere percentage point drops rather greater reductions. Whilst motoring is still a vote winner none of the major political parties will make the changes neccessary to affectively make a difference.

[Rich_cb]

I agree, I know somebody who,
I agree, I know somebody who, post pandemic, now lives in Cardiff but commutes to London for one day a week.

He takes the train for that day so has no need for a car for commuting purposes.

Everybody I know who has moved to WFH or hybrid working has zero intention of going back to the office full time.

It would make sense for peak car to occur at roughly the same time as peak commute and I’m sure we’ve passed the latter.

[matthewn5]

Could be, the average car in

Could be, the average car in the UK is parked 96% of the time, according to the RAC Foundation. That sounds like people really don’t much like driving, but they don’t yet feel able to completely free themselves from car ownership…

 

[Kapelmuur]

I was born and raised in

I was born and raised in rural Shropshire where availability of public transport is woeful.   Cars will remain key to mobility is similar areas.

It’s a different situation in cities and WFH is having quite a effect.   My daughter works for a large corporation based in Mancheste, a job in her team has been offered to someone living in Bristol on the basis they come to Manchester one day a month.   

Similarly a uni friend who was working in London has moved to Chester (where he can afford to buy a house) and is attending the London office once a month.

Cars will still be used for leisure travel but I expect their use for commuting and shopping to diminish together with the practice of each adult member of a household owning a car.

[chrisonabike]

I hope it might prompt some

I hope it might prompt some change.  That will need backing with measures for “making the environment feel safe for cycling” though. (Must have a look at Cardiff sometime).

But is this a re-run of “how the Dutch got their cycle paths“?

Spoiler – no, not yet.  It might also concern you that there was considerable law breaking and violence by Dutch activists who played an important role in this transition.

[hawkinspeter]

Well, it’s about goddamn time

Well, it’s about goddamn time

[Rich_cb]

The supply chain issues that
The supply chain issues that are driving the price rises don’t look like abating anytime soon so I’m hopeful that the trend continues for a little bit longer.

After that it will depend if those who gave up their cars want to reallocate their newly disposable income back to car ownership.

I don’t think all of them will, especially given the cost of living squeeze will be putting pressure on their finances from all other directions.

[Rich_cb]

It’s exactly the same in
It’s exactly the same in Cardiff, huge numbers of cars which seem to be hardly ever used.

The sheer misery of driving isn’t often acknowledged but I’d agree it’s one of the biggest factors in declining car use.

[Sriracha]

The article also points out
The article also points out that car prices (especially used) have gone sharply up. That seems to indicate that the fall in sales is driven by a lack of supply in the face of undiminished demand, which does not bode so well for a continued decline in car numbers.

[IanMSpencer]

It fascinates me when
It fascinates me when visiting London how many cars are permanently stored on the road. They have clearly been unused for many weeks due to the detritus on them, yet they clearly are too new to be abandoned.

For all its affluence, London shows that public transport infrastructure and cycling makes for a better experience than car usage. Unfortunately, the political will to upgrade the rest of the country to the same standards means that the rest of the country has to endure spending all that money on the misery of driving (and let’s admit it, driving is not the fun it was 40 or 50 years ago regardless of supposed infrastructure improvements).

So although there is massive pressure from the car industry, the anxiety of knowing every journey, however short, is a stressfest is the industry’s biggest enemy, and the only solution applied, more tarmac, typically generates more problems in the long term as paradoxically it generates the traffic density it is trying to mitigate against.

[Author]

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