Tour de France Stage 16

I have really faded badly in
I have really faded badly in this competition after a good start. Messed up a couple of stages where I really wasn’t concentrating properly. I think I have done it again.

I am left with
Froome and Mollema Guaranteed points and Froome for TT
De Gendt and Fedrigo for breakaway and I will probably keep De Gendt as I expect him to do something big in the last week. Kwiatowski should be good for some points next two days.

Then it’s fillers Le Mevel, Bonnet, Marino and Mederel, hoping at least one of them can get in the break sometime. I have 4 transfers for tomorrow but will probably only need 1 or 2. I will be considering Kreuziger, Nieve, Quintana and some guys for a surprise.

Good luck to everyone this week its been fun so far and despite the relentless going backwards of my team I am still enjoying it.

I’ve got
Froome
Rolland (some
I’ve got

Froome
Rolland (some MPs at least – hopefully more – he was more for Sun and was 15″ from getting in a break that might then have gone away)
Quintana
De Gendt (snap chris – could go in a break and good for ITT – my only change for today)
Nieve (might go in a break- well down on GC – 18 mins; 3rd in MP comp so might go for some points to give himself a chance of wearing polka dots on Thurs)
Kadri (could be in a break – can win on his own)
Le Mevel (need him to so something for my purists – he’s tried twice)
El Fares (need him NOT to do anything for my purists)
Bonnet (got taken out in the Greipel crash – never mind)

3 changes tomorrow should give me a decent ITT line-up with 5/6 scorers, giving me 4 for Alpe d’Huez. No idea what I’m going to do with that one yet. Will have to put my thinking cap on!

I fancy Gilbert today to
I fancy Gilbert today to build on his strong showing on Ventoux – stronger than I expected anyway for sure. Looks like he might be finding some form and time is running out for him and BMC to do something. Albasini and Paulinho two more picks for me today too as I also think a good breakaway group will take this one to the finish.

http://cyclingbetting.co.uk/tour-de-france-stage-16-preview

Like your style TER, that’s
Like your style TER, that’s what I would do in your position, take a risk to try and get up into the top 10.

My team is totally reliant on having someone in the break, and it staying away.

Froome
Quintana
De Gendt
Voeckler
Lutsenko
Hoogerland
Le Mevel
El Fares
Mederel

Lutsenko and Voeckler out tomorrow leaves me with transfers in hand and enough credits to have the guys I want for Alpe d’Huez, but could really do with a massive slice of luck today and 2 in the break, otherwise the lost points on Saturday and today will have been too much of a penalty for having the right team for the rest of the week.

The main argument for Rolland
The main argument for Rolland in the break today is that he effectively get’s an easy day tomorrow during the TT so he can afford to have a go today and Thursday without needing to go flat out in the TT.

Also, yesterday Europcar renewed their sponsorship of the team so I expect something big from the team today, could be either Voeckler or Rolland.

I’m expecting a large break
I’m expecting a large break to stay away today, but am not really chasing it, more saving transfers for the more predictable stages. Still have Voeckler and Lutsenko in from Saturday so last chance for them to do something before I get rid tomorrow.

Agree with TER, 2 Cat 2s is no good for Rolland, he needs big points to win the KOM, and the only way he’ll do that is if a long break stays away on Thurs/Sat. (Plus the early HCs on Friday). But I guess he still might go for the early KOMs today in the first 50km and then drop back and let the break go?

Surprised you dropped Hoogerland TER, seems like one of the stages he’s more likely to feature in? But if it allowed you to squeeze someone better in, then fair enough. He’s actually 4th favourite for the stage on Paddy Power, so I’m hoping they know something I don’t, and am keeping him just in case…

TERatcliffe26 wrote:Rolland

TERatcliffe26 wrote:

Rolland on this stage really? id have thought he will be saving himself for thursday and friday where the really points are. Just a Cat 2 and 3 before the cat 2 close to the finish today.

My team looks like a very very big risk based on what you have said Alan.

put it this way I axed Froome, Quintana, Ten Dam and Hoogerland

But Rolland can get points on the little hills but not the big finish. He’ll need points tomorrow along with maybe stage glory plus points on some of the other climbs on 18, 19, 20 but he doesn’t seem capable of scoring on the HC finishes, which have double points, so he’s going to need everything else going to have even an outside chance of winning. I don’t think he has a cat in hell’s chance of winning one of the big stages, way beyond him from what we have seen but he might win tomorrow if it’s a very small group at the end and no Sagan, who might fancy his chances but don’t want to waste a transfer on that supposition. Going more for a win on 17-20 as tomorrow a bit unpredictable.

If I was going to bet money I’d put it on Nieve for the polka dots. Wonder what the odds were before stage 8? Might still be quite good but don’t want to go down that slippery path to penury.