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Yeah...new game....thanks folks. I’m only seeing five ticks on PCS...is this start list still tenatative?

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Condor Andy [810 posts] 10 months ago
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Six ticks now  1

I don't think so, more or less sorted, especially with the race favourites. Just keep your eyes peeled for alterations.

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Dr Winston [839 posts] 10 months ago
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Will do. This race is a bit of a lottery sitting nicely between a roller and sprint race. It’s a goodie.

Condor Andy wrote:

Six ticks now  1

I don't think so, more or less sorted, especially with the race favourites. Just keep your eyes peeled for alterations.

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Condor Andy [810 posts] 10 months ago
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A 1.2km climb at 8.4% 10km out from the line is the only spanner in the works. They go over that climb 4 times, but only a really strong group can breakaway from the sprinters to contest the race imo. The race is only 164km. The wind looks fairly tame as well so we can rule out crosswinds.

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Condor Andy [810 posts] 10 months ago
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It's exactly the same route as last year by the looks of things.

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Dr Winston [839 posts] 10 months ago
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A high quality group of about a dozen or so took it up last time. That profile is tasty for a slingshot but catchable at the same time. How big is that rise mid way home after the last climb? Do you know? 

Condor Andy wrote:

It's exactly the same route as last year by the looks of things.

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MinardiM189 [694 posts] 10 months ago
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Dr Winston wrote:

A high quality group of about a dozen or so took it up last time. That profile is tasty for a slingshot but catchable at the same time. How big is that rise mid way home after the last climb? Do you know?

I watched the replay of last year, the final small bump isn't significant, if you attack there you may get 2 seconds gap but use a lot of energy to get it.  Some riders tried attacking there last year and were brought back straight away.

If a decent group gets away and works together it can quite easily stick. Last year the front group spent most of their time attacking each other and the chase group caught them in the last 100m, although McCarthy did hang on for the win.

I think the problem for the front group is always going to be the same, people like Impey will probably be in the front group and climbers have no chance if Impey, etc. are still there at the finish.

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Dr Winston [839 posts] 10 months ago
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Yeah. I do like these races where the final climb is about 8-10km out...especially the ones with climbs that don’t kill off the pack. Just about right this one, 

MinardiM189 wrote:
Dr Winston wrote:

A high quality group of about a dozen or so took it up last time. That profile is tasty for a slingshot but catchable at the same time. How big is that rise mid way home after the last climb? Do you know?

I watched the replay of last year, the final small bump isn't significant, if you attack there you may get 2 seconds gap but use a lot of energy to get it.  Some riders tried attacking there last year and were brought back straight away.

If a decent group gets away and works together it can quite easily stick. Last year the front group spent most of their time attacking each other and the chase group caught them in the last 100m, although McCarthy did hang on for the win.

I think the problem for the front group is always going to be the same, people like Impey will probably be in the front group and climbers have no chance if Impey, etc. are still there at the finish.

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MinardiM189 [694 posts] 10 months ago
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Schwarzmann not Schachmann for Bora.

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Condor Andy [810 posts] 10 months ago
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At Milan Sanremo, the Poggio is just over 5km from the line and that is much more cat and mouse. I think the climb being 10km away gives the sprinters too big of a chance, they're almost bound to get back. Like Minardi says, a big group could stay away, but If a guy like Impey goes with them they may lose their appetite.

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Dr Winston [839 posts] 10 months ago
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Yeah...he’s a problem to the likes of Sanchez and Ulissi....

Condor Andy wrote:

At Milan Sanremo, the Poggio is just over 5km from the line and that is much more cat and mouse. I think the climb being 10km away gives the sprinters too big of a chance, they're almost bound to get back. Like Minardi says, a big group could stay away, but If a guy like Impey goes with them they may lose their appetite.

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pockstone [330 posts] 10 months ago
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Great Ovean Road Race.

It's hot in Australia right now.

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MinardiM189 [694 posts] 10 months ago
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I'm expecting a much harder race than last year.

Teams didn't really attack from the bottom of the final climb last year. LottoJumbo controlled the pace (racing for Battaglin?) until Kennaugh attacked close to the top.

This year I expect teams to go hard from the bottom of the climb and a group of 20 to stay away.

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Dr Winston [839 posts] 10 months ago
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Pens down. I managed to get about 8 out of about 20 riders I wanted..,pffft...Good luck everybody.

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MinardiM189 [694 posts] 10 months ago
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MinardiM189 wrote:

I'm expecting a much harder race than last year.

Teams didn't really attack from the bottom of the final climb last year. LottoJumbo controlled the pace (racing for Battaglin?) until Kennaugh attacked close to the top.

This year I expect teams to go hard from the bottom of the climb and a group of 20 to stay away.

Well I got that prediction wrong, probably the easiest I have seen them go on the finishing circuit.

Good job I hedged my bets  1

 

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Dr Winston [839 posts] 10 months ago
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Hard race to read. Poor day for me but i’ll take heart that quite a few regulars also found it hard to predict. What happened to Van Poppel? 

MinardiM189 wrote:
MinardiM189 wrote:

I'm expecting a much harder race than last year.

Teams didn't really attack from the bottom of the final climb last year. LottoJumbo controlled the pace (racing for Battaglin?) until Kennaugh attacked close to the top.

This year I expect teams to go hard from the bottom of the climb and a group of 20 to stay away.

Well I got that prediction wrong, probably the easiest I have seen them go on the finishing circuit.

Good job I hedged my bets  1

 

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MinardiM189 [694 posts] 10 months ago
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Dr Winston wrote:

Hard race to read. Poor day for me but i’ll take heart that quite a few regulars also found it hard to predict. What happened to Van Poppel?

The team said he didn't have the legs on the day.

I did OK and moved up a few places.  1

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Dr Winston [839 posts] 10 months ago
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Really....gosh. I thought he looked really strong at the TDU, i’m surprised...I changed my team umpteen times but he never left. You leap frogged me...I just stood still. 

MinardiM189 wrote:
Dr Winston wrote:

Hard race to read. Poor day for me but i’ll take heart that quite a few regulars also found it hard to predict. What happened to Van Poppel?

The team said he didn't have the legs on the day.

I did OK and moved up a few places.  1

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MinardiM189 [694 posts] 10 months ago
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Dr Winston wrote:

Really....gosh. I thought he looked really strong at the TDU, i’m surprised...I changed my team umpteen times but he never left. You leap frogged me...I just stood still.

Van Poppel was in my team throughout too. He did look good in the TDU especially Stage3 which was difficult.

At the end of the day my low cost rider made the difference.

Luke Rowe had finished 5th (2017), 13th (2016) and 4th (2015) so I thought he was a good bet for a top10. In 2017 Sky raced for Rowe and I thought they would do the same last night.

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Dr Winston [839 posts] 10 months ago
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Good spot Minardi. I saw reports that they’d be riding for just about everybody...so decided not to bother. Well playe you. 

MinardiM189 wrote:
Dr Winston wrote:

Really....gosh. I thought he looked really strong at the TDU, i’m surprised...I changed my team umpteen times but he never left. You leap frogged me...I just stood still.

Van Poppel was in my team throughout too. He did look good in the TDU especially Stage3 which was difficult.

At the end of the day my low cost rider made the difference.

Luke Rowe had finished 5th (2017), 13th (2016) and 4th (2015) so I thought he was a good bet for a top10. In 2017 Sky raced for Rowe and I thought they would do the same last night.