Tour de France Stage 16

Hi Dave,

?????

Joined by Jeannesson.

stevemarks

Jinx

Hansen (LTB), Gilbert and Quinziato (BMC), Gallopin (RTL), Gautier and Voeckler (EUC), Kadri and Riblon (ALM), Roche (TST), Trofimov (KAT), Astarloza (EUS), Costa (MOV), Coppel and Navarro (COF), Mori (LAM), Velits (OPQ), Navardauskas (GRS), Albasini and Meyer (OGE), Dumoulin (ARG), De Gendt and Hoogerland (VCD) and Marino (SOJ).

The peloton is now 2'35" behind.

The escape group is at the 38km mark.

Hansen (LTB), Gilbert and Quinziato (BMC), Gallopin (RTL), Gautier and Voeckler (EUC), Kadri and Riblon (ALM), Roche (TST), Trofimov (KAT), Astarloza (EUS), Costa (MOV), Coppel and Navarro (COF), Mori (LAM), Velits (OPQ), Navardauskas (GRS), Albasini and Meyer (OGE), Dumoulin (ARG), De Gendt and Hoogerland (VCD) and Marino (SOJ).

The peloton is now 2'35" behind.

The escape group is at the 38km mark.

I think it'll be at least another 20km before this settles down and we know who's actually in the break. And Saxo look like they might try something again...

Group of 20 has 30 seconds:

Sagan (CAN), Voigt (RTL), Didier (RTL), Hansen (LTB), Bennati (TST), Roche (TST), Brutt (KAT), Kadri (ALM), Ribon (ALM), Costa (MOV), Rojas (MOV), Mori (LAM), Boom (BEL), Velits (OPQ), Navardauskas (GRS), Degenkolb (ARG), Dumoulin (ARG), De Gendt (VCD), and Vuillermoz (SOJ)

Got De Gendt in there but Bakelandts and Gilbert both missed it. In fact, BMC look to have missed it entirely as do Europcar. Wonder if this will get pulled back or not.

If not then I wonder if Contador will try and do something with Roche up the road.

EDIT: FDJ missed the move too and are trying to haul it back.

20 riders away, includes Voigt and Sagan.

Two DNS - Pinot and Danny van Poppel.

Martin, Sagan and Fedrigo in for me. Keeping Kwiatkowski and Quintana too, you never know...

Wish there were more £3m DSs to choose from.

Just noticed my purist team should hit 10k pts for the season today. Still 5th overall but TER has Quintana so expect to be back down to 6th by Sunday...

Glad I don't have to make these decisions, but for what it is worth I fancy Albasini, possibly. The bookie that has the initials PP has Sagan 5/1 favourite, but there are some big prices on possibles if you like a bet. Albasini is 22/1, Quintana 125/1, simon 25/1. Bakelants 25/1 Kwia' 25/1, Dan Martin 66/1

I have really faded badly in this competition after a good start. Messed up a couple of stages where I really wasn't concentrating properly. I think I have done it again.

I am left with
Froome and Mollema Guaranteed points and Froome for TT
De Gendt and Fedrigo for breakaway and I will probably keep De Gendt as I expect him to do something big in the last week. Kwiatowski should be good for some points next two days.

Then it's fillers Le Mevel, Bonnet, Marino and Mederel, hoping at least one of them can get in the break sometime. I have 4 transfers for tomorrow but will probably only need 1 or 2. I will be considering Kreuziger, Nieve, Quintana and some guys for a surprise.

Good luck to everyone this week its been fun so far and despite the relentless going backwards of my team I am still enjoying it.

I've got

Froome
Rolland (some MPs at least - hopefully more - he was more for Sun and was 15" from getting in a break that might then have gone away)
Quintana
De Gendt (snap chris - could go in a break and good for ITT - my only change for today)
Nieve (might go in a break- well down on GC - 18 mins; 3rd in MP comp so might go for some points to give himself a chance of wearing polka dots on Thurs)
Kadri (could be in a break - can win on his own)
Le Mevel (need him to so something for my purists - he's tried twice)
El Fares (need him NOT to do anything for my purists)
Bonnet (got taken out in the Greipel crash - never mind)

3 changes tomorrow should give me a decent ITT line-up with 5/6 scorers, giving me 4 for Alpe d'Huez. No idea what I'm going to do with that one yet. Will have to put my thinking cap on!

All out break chasing for me.

Out: Froome, Quintana, Nieve, Pinot (what a waste...)
In: Voeckler, Gilbert, Kwiatkowski, Bakelandts

Giving me

Kwiatkowski (for a potential small group sprint finish and the TT)
Voeckler (for the break)
Gilbert (for the break)
Bakelandts (for the break)
De Gendt (for the break)
Navarro (not sure why)
El Fares
Mederel
Fischer

Probably ditch Navarro tomorrow plus Voeckler, Bakelandts and Gilbert

I fancy Gilbert today to build on his strong showing on Ventoux - stronger than I expected anyway for sure. Looks like he might be finding some form and time is running out for him and BMC to do something. Albasini and Paulinho two more picks for me today too as I also think a good breakaway group will take this one to the finish.

http://cyclingbetting.co.uk/tour-de-france-stage-16-preview

The problem I see with a break staying away today is that its Sagans last shot realistically at a stage victory in the race so I think Cannondale will bring it back together

Like your style TER, that's what I would do in your position, take a risk to try and get up into the top 10.

My team is totally reliant on having someone in the break, and it staying away.

Froome
Quintana
De Gendt
Voeckler
Lutsenko
Hoogerland
Le Mevel
El Fares
Mederel

Lutsenko and Voeckler out tomorrow leaves me with transfers in hand and enough credits to have the guys I want for Alpe d'Huez, but could really do with a massive slice of luck today and 2 in the break, otherwise the lost points on Saturday and today will have been too much of a penalty for having the right team for the rest of the week.

Basically its because ive gone all or bust as big ground wont be made in the mountains really, most teams will be similar, or at least similar scoring, unless someone chases the break, but noone near the lead will i don't think.

im currently 19th, and 10th is only 30 points away and 5th 52 points away, so for me today could be make or break, as tomrrow will be difficult to predict in my opinion and my team will stay the same bar one change.

Chris I needed to drop Hoogerland for El Fares so that I could get Gerrans in, as he is the one that could make a difference for me today if the stage pans out how I had it in my head.

Here goes

Sagan
Mollema
Fuglsang
Kwiatkowski
Gerrans
El Fares
Mederal
Fsicher

The main argument for Rolland in the break today is that he effectively get's an easy day tomorrow during the TT so he can afford to have a go today and Thursday without needing to go flat out in the TT.

Also, yesterday Europcar renewed their sponsorship of the team so I expect something big from the team today, could be either Voeckler or Rolland.

Made 2 changes for today switching back the 2 i should have kept in for Ventoux. It's a complete lottery on who wins today, if the break forms with no one less than 20 mins behind Froome i can see it staying away with Sky, Saxo and Movistar keeping their powder dry for tommorrow.

I'm expecting a large break to stay away today, but am not really chasing it, more saving transfers for the more predictable stages. Still have Voeckler and Lutsenko in from Saturday so last chance for them to do something before I get rid tomorrow.

Agree with TER, 2 Cat 2s is no good for Rolland, he needs big points to win the KOM, and the only way he'll do that is if a long break stays away on Thurs/Sat. (Plus the early HCs on Friday). But I guess he still might go for the early KOMs today in the first 50km and then drop back and let the break go?

Surprised you dropped Hoogerland TER, seems like one of the stages he's more likely to feature in? But if it allowed you to squeeze someone better in, then fair enough. He's actually 4th favourite for the stage on Paddy Power, so I'm hoping they know something I don't, and am keeping him just in case...

I predict Julien Simon to ride in the breakaway again - although he's too big a risk to spend 2 transfers on. I'll also make a pretty bold statement and say that Europcar will be represented in the break!

Rolland on this stage really? id have thought he will be saving himself for thursday and friday where the really points are. Just a Cat 2 and 3 before the cat 2 close to the finish today.

My team looks like a very very big risk based on what you have said Alan.

put it this way I axed Froome, Quintana, Ten Dam and Hoogerland