Tour de Pologne stage 5

by chrisdstripes   August 1, 2013  

Quote from Ben Swift after winning this exact same stage last year - “Stages like that are always strange as it depends how the peloton race it,” he explained. “The climbs weren’t too difficult but it could have been a different story if the GC guys had really hit out."

So will the GC guys hit out today, or wait til tomorrow? I've dropped Swift, which I might regret. At least he's in my purists.

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Ive dropped all my sprinters Surprise Thinking

posted by TERatcliffe26 [3861 posts]
1st August 2013 - 10:31

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No changes for me, mainly because I can't be bothered to think about it. Anyway, six transfers for tomorrow although I have no idea wha the stage looks like, I've heard 'lumpy' but not really sure.

Enjoying not taking this race too seriously, it's always nice to have a bit of a break after the Tour, especially with the Vuelta only a few weeks away.

posted by drheaton [3429 posts]
1st August 2013 - 10:46

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Interestingly, 15 hours ago, the bookies had the favorites you would expect for a mountain stage, eg Henao, Majka, Ulissi etc. Now half the top ten are sprinters. Have they changed the stage, or has Poland been levelled by an earthquake?

posted by tony kappler [31 posts]
1st August 2013 - 12:24

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20 pen points to clear me out

Pozzovivo
Henao
Majka
Basso
Rohregger
Weening
Sorenson
Capecchi
Izagirre

If it goes the way of the sprinters I've got 52 in the bag regardless Nerd

'Don't look back. Something might be gaining on you'

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posted by livestrongnick [1762 posts]
1st August 2013 - 13:44

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i noticed that last night. i had a look at bet 365 and was surprised at how they had the likes of majka + henao at 5 or 6:1 and the sprinters at 50:1 to 300:1 or nowhere.

I then had another butchers at the profile, and its as christripes quoted it seems, depends what the peloton want to do on the day. i think there's a good chance for the right break to make it all the way, especially with 6 man teams. i dont think its hard enough for the main GC guys to gain time on each other. So, if the break is caught, this ought to suit sprinters who can climb.

so I think bet365 had it wrong. by the time i came back on their website, hushovd had gone from 50 to 15:1 and mezgec from 150 to 80:1 ! i got a bit on mezgec each way, and this morning markets settled respectively at something like 8:1 and 20:1. the GC guys had drifted to low double figures.

It's always a real gamble to go for break-away guys to win, so I've still gambled, but i feel with more chance of a result, with the scenario of the break being caught and the stage to be contested by the sprinters-who-climb. My team is thus:

hushovd
mezgec
swift
ventoso
vicioso
golas

+ huzarski for mountain points break-away

+ henao and majka for gc points/minor sprint places.

20 points penalty! could conceivably score a big fat 0 on this stage...

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posted by johnny2names [199 posts]
1st August 2013 - 13:51

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livestrongnick wrote:
20 pen points to clear me out

Pozzovivo
Henao
Majka
Basso
Rohregger
Weening
Sorenson
Capecchi
Izagirre

If it goes the way of the sprinters I've got 52 in the bag regardless Nerd

pretty much the opposite of me! And I think quite a few will do something similar to you, it does seem inherently safer. but what the hell, i've carried on with my all-in gambling streak Smile

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posted by johnny2names [199 posts]
1st August 2013 - 13:54

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Hedging my bets again I'm left with these, can make 3 transfers tomorrow and 3 more on Sat without pens. So in good shape, but its all about picking the right guys for tomorrow - mega points on offer!

LuLu Sanchez (in for Swift)
Henao
Majka
Hushovd
Mezgec
Golas
Huzarski
Rebellin
Matysiak

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posted by chrisdstripes [1581 posts]
1st August 2013 - 14:01

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I went for no sprint Crying

Henao
Majka
Basso
Pozzovivo
Capecchi
Sorenson
Weening
Kangert
Matysiak

3 transfers left to bring in Phinney and Cancellara for the TT on Saturday, actually I may have and could have made another transfer today, now im confused

posted by TERatcliffe26 [3861 posts]
1st August 2013 - 14:40

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with 3 cat 1s and 3 cat 2s (think it's the usual circuit stage) anything could happen really.

'Don't look back. Something might be gaining on you'

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posted by livestrongnick [1762 posts]
1st August 2013 - 14:40

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I went for bole not Golas, my bad! real bad, golas in the break, looks like sticking

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posted by johnny2names [199 posts]
1st August 2013 - 14:46

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I'll take that, 6,12,13,14,15,20

'Don't look back. Something might be gaining on you'

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posted by livestrongnick [1762 posts]
1st August 2013 - 17:49

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Did you have Tomasz Marczynski today? I did.....highest scorer today with 40 points Big Grin

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posted by Gkam84 [8794 posts]
1st August 2013 - 18:45

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Have him in my purist team Big Grin

'Don't look back. Something might be gaining on you'

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posted by livestrongnick [1762 posts]
1st August 2013 - 19:32

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Had him in purist, but also in standard.

Just a shame I didn't have a few other top scorers Devil

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posted by Gkam84 [8794 posts]
1st August 2013 - 19:55

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my gambling didnt pay off, my 4 punchy sprinter picks never made the final, although bole and ventoso were not far off. so wasted transfers, wasted 20 points penalty, and only 86 points Sad

but that's gambling for you Big Grin

far more upset that mezgec failed to land a top 3, cost me 200 quid!! and even more galling that ratto took the place away from him, since i'd -again- overlooked him...

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posted by johnny2names [199 posts]
2nd August 2013 - 10:59

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