Take the wind out of the prologue

by cherrypicked   June 10, 2013  

First chart is 2013 TdSuisse start position vs finishing time. The impact of the wind is quite evident.

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Prologue results.jpg22.38 KB

7 user comments

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Would be interesting to see what the positions would be if you applied statistical analysis to the results and adjusted the times to reflect the effect the wind had on the times.

posted by drheaton [3429 posts]
10th June 2013 - 15:06

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This is the same chart but for the 2012 TdS data. Trying to get some picture of what we might expect.

2012 TdS prologue.png

posted by cherrypicked [172 posts]
10th June 2013 - 15:12

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Then with some adjustment by observation, sorry not getting too statistical (or technical) here, the adjusted chart looks like this. It is actually just taking off 30sec from start position 69.

2013 TdS prologue adjusted times.png

posted by cherrypicked [172 posts]
10th June 2013 - 15:18

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That's actually pretty close to what alot of people expected.

Cancellara much further up, Meyer, Kangert, Amador, Albasini and Sagan all mixing it up in the top 10 or so.

Very interesting, thanks Big Grin

posted by drheaton [3429 posts]
10th June 2013 - 15:45

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Riders 60-68 (start position) were
ISAICHEV, Vladimir
TIERNAN-LOCKE, Jonathan
SANZ UNZUE, Enrique
FEILLU, Brice
ELMIGER, Martin
FRÖHLINGER, Johannes
VAN POPPEL, Boy
ROY, Jérémy
OROZ UGALDE, Juan José
so I don't think there's too much ITT strength there. Elmiger is the only one to (just) make it to the top20 if you take off 30 seconds.

Riders 58, 59 were
VELITS, Peter
MONFORT, Maxime
who would have come in either side of Cancellara by taking off the 30sec as well.

posted by cherrypicked [172 posts]
10th June 2013 - 15:49

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You will notice that the gradient and correlation are similar. Just looking at it again, maybe I should have taken it off for another 10 riders or so.

The resulting top 20 looks like this:
Pos'n New Pos Name
16 1 CANCELLARA, Fabian
26 2 DUMOULIN, Tom
1 3 MEYER, Cameron
32 4 KANGERT, Tanel
34 5 O'GRADY, Stuart
35 6 BOUET, Maxime
36 7 AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA, Andrey
38 8 ALBASINI, Michael
40 9 SAGAN, Peter
41 10 IMPEY, Daryl
43 11 DEVOLDER, Stijn
44 12 ROCHE, Nicolas
45 13 MOSER, Moreno
46 14 HERRADA LOPEZ, Jesus
2 15 TERPSTRA, Niki
53 16 COSTA, Rui Alberto
56 17 MOLLEMA, Bauke
60 18 BRAJKOVIC, Janez
62 19 KELDERMAN, Wilco
63 20 GRETSCH, Patrick

posted by cherrypicked [172 posts]
10th June 2013 - 15:53

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The only remaining riders who started before this and after Meyer were
MORKOV, Michael
VANMARCKE, Sep
KOCH, Michel
FERRARI, Roberto
CHÉREL, Mikael
FRANK, Mathias
MORTON, Lachlan David
DYACHENKO, Alexandr

posted by cherrypicked [172 posts]
10th June 2013 - 15:54

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