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Ardennes Classics
Looking at picking my purist team for the Ardennes races. I am struggling to find team rosters for this round of races.
I always find the Spring Classics the hardest to pick a purist team for, too many last minute roster changes and crashes affecting riders actually riding. Ended up with only 4 riders at Paris-Roubaix. Maybe I have the Sky mentality - pants at one day racing, better at stage racing?
I am particularly interested in the likes of the big hitter: I know Wiggins is targetting LBL, are Cav, Sagan,Bertie,etc riding the Ardennes races?
If you have any team links (in English) please could you share?
Public information notice: EBH and Geraint will now win everything they enter as I have perservered with them on my team for ages. They are now going to sit races out on the bench until they start showing some decent real life race form.
If you're new please join in and if you have questions pop them below and the forum regulars will answer as best we can.
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32 comments
and finally, i've changed betancur's name so it's right
to add to that, porte is *much* more expensive in the giro than JTL. who's not a lot dearer than betancurt
okay, to clarify:
1) the values of riders are set once, for each competition. So Betancurt doing well in the first few races of the spring classics isn't going to make him more expensive later on in that competition. He'll be more expensive in subsequent competitions though.
2) the values are based on 12 months of form. The different competitions are weighted differently, with the grand tours being the highest. so yes, JTL doing well in the ToB last year is going to up his value. but not by as much as if he'd picked up a bunch of points in a bigger race.
3) the values are based on what sort of stages are in the competition. so richie porte racking up the points in the mountains and individual time trials isn't going to help him much in the classics, where it's all flat and medium mountains. JTL, on the other hand, has good form on those kinds of stages. hence, he's more expensive.
Thanks guys, yes I much prefer it this season. Second half of last season it seemed like everyone had Moser in every single race!
Yeah, like you said, there'll always be anomalies be at least under the current system values are more reflective of ability and form than they were last year when values were set at the start of the year and didn't change.
Last year there were all sorts off odd values towards the middle/end of the year where riders like Bouhanni and Degenkolb had burst on to the scene mid-year but were still dirt cheap.
The key as always though is picking people who are good value and who you think will do well, that hasn't changed.
Hi messrs Heaton and ratcliffe - wanted to chip in as I've never quite grasped rider valuation before (not given it much thought as its the same for everyone anyway) but I think I've got it now - so is this (using Betancurt as an example) correct?
Betancurt was set at 3.0 for the "Spring Classics" competition, when the values were set before Milan-San Remo (and possibly before the end of Paris-Nice). He was also 3.0 for Catalunya, and increased to 4.4 for Vasco based on picking up a few points in Catalunya. Having had a very good Vasco, he will probably be valued much higher for his next race (maybe the Giro?), but the values for the "Spring Classics" competition were set in March and will not change mid-competition, so for Amstel/Fleche/Liege he will remain at 3.0. Sound right?
I guess the main thing is, as we've said before, that whatever system is used to calculate rider values will throw up the odd anomaly in certain races, and identifying from which of those you can gain an advantage is part of the game.
Yep spot on.
I'd expect Betancurt to be around 8/10 credits for the Giro, probably no higher, one due to the teams that are riding (all world tour teams), meaning lost of riders with much more form than him over the 12 months. Had he been riding Trentino, looking at other riders his value could have been as high as 16/17 credits. As only 6 WT teams are riding meaning teams full of riders with none or very little form
An example similar to JTL is Ivan Rovny. he is valued at 19.9 for Trentino. This is inpart due to the high amount of riders that have no form whatsoever, this comes from the teams selected for that race, and the fact that he scored a lot of points at last years TOC
Well it depends when the competition values were calculated, if they were done before the P-N race scores were put into the system then it won't include that race.
Also as Dr says the values are created based on the type of terrain too, none of the classics are high mountainous terrain, which is where porte scores his points. the ToB was MM terrain which is where JTL scored his points, the same as the classics profiles, thus a high value. Porte also has no real other form in fantasy races from the last 12 months until now
ToB will be down weighted compared to other competitons (however this may not be the case from last years results as I don't think the system was not in place for competition weighting)
Betancurt and Weening had absolutely no form over the previous 12 months on the competitions that were in the fantasy game (Betancurt came 4th in Trentino, but wasn't in the fantasy game), whereas JTL did, so he won't be lower.
I'm wondering why JTL has a higher value than Richie Porte.
JTL, Brian Smith was on Eurosport saying that they (Endura) had specifically targetted early season races with JTL as they anticipated the rest of the peleton would still be riding into form. Sadly this year the rest of the World Tour has started paying attention to the Sky mentality of riding for victories from the start and for the whole season rather than just targetting a Grand Tour.
In a rolling 12 months JTL is probably still carrying value from the ToB?
The Spring Classics started on 17 March, they opened up a few days before that so in effect every rider value for the entirety of the classics was set before Milan-SanRemo.
That means that Porte's form from Paris-Nice and Pais Vasco may not have been included. Likewise ray is right in that JTL may have a higher form rating based on points won over the past 12 months.
Finally, the classics are seven races, two are rated flat and five are rated as medium mountains. Porte scores his points in the high mountains or in TTs so potentially isn't ranked as highly when it comes to the classifications used.
That's a good point... Maybe his points from ToB and other races should be weighted down because of the level of competition of the races he competed in last year...
Dave, is that true? Or is it his results from other races, too? Dave, is his value calculated based on the types of stages in the current competition or purely on the rolling last 12 months? There are people like Betancur and Weening at 3.0 points... But obviuosly they've performed nicely recently... Shouldn't JTL's value be lower because it's his 1st participation the Classics? I know it's probably going to stay put, but could you give us an insight into what goes into the value formulation that things like this happen? Does the formula need some tweaking?
Dave, is it true then, that what dr is saying, that Porte's value does nor include his Paris Nice peformance? Can you tell us more about rider valuation? JTL still doesn't make much sense to me vis-a-vis Porte, but the truth is I think he's fairly valued...
The Ardennes classics are his first big season goal, so he should be close to his peak form now.
He has filled the role of a domestique in every race he did so far.
Apologies, the article seems to have gone from what it started as "Ardennes Classics" to a chat on JTL. I should have kept my mouth shut.
JTL may turn out to be a nobody or a superstar, but I think speculation on his future on 8th April in his first season with the big boys is a bit premature. We don't know what he's been asked to do. He looks to be struggling a little but give him a bit of time.
Look at it from Sky's point of view, JTL is entirely unproven at World Tour level and not someone you'd trust to lead a team when you've already got riders like Froome, Wiggins, Porte, Uran and Henao. All of these established successful riders are above JTL in the pecking order. Then add in loads of hard working domestiques like Kiryenka and Cataldo who are proven at this level and have been putting in the miles for the team.
This year is probably about working out what level JTL is capable of riding at and ensuring he has the fitness to deal with the longer races that he's not been used to in the past.
Next year, maybe, we might see JTL being given the chance to race, but this year it's about integrating him into the team and getting him up to speed.
JTL will probably lead the team at the ToB and in races such as GP Quebec when Wiggo etc have packed up for the season (imo)
drh, i totally agree, we dont know its just an observation thats all.
If he goes on to win or do really well i will be chuffed to bits cos he's British and thats the important bit.
Just pick cancellara
I may get shot for this but i think JTL will be binned by Sky at the end of the season. I dont think he has lived upto the hype.
Mind you i wish i was even 20% as good as him.
He wont be in my team nor will any other Sky rider, for me they will be fine tuning etc for the Giro.
1) its his first season at the top level
2) we don't know his schedule or plans for the season, he could specifically be working to a race later in the season or, for his first year, could be concentrating on domestique duties. We don't know what his goals are or what the teams plans are.
Careful I said this on these forums over a month ago and got roasted by one member who seemed to decide I knew nothing about cycling ...
The question for me is which Sky guy will be leader. Froome, Uran and JTL appear to be riding all three with Wiggins just LBL, will Froome go for it, will Uran be given a shot, is JTL up to it?
Too many questions!
I hate the damn classics.
Heh heh. Ditto.
Made it easy for myself, I don't have a sky rider in either team
Thank you
Do we have unlimited transfers for our purist teams for the next three classics (Amstel, Fleche, LBL) or just 6?
Unlimited before Amstel, then none in between the rest of the races
Keep an eye on the Giro Del Trentino too as anyone confirmed for that will definitely not be in the Fleche-Wallone.
Thanks for the tip about Thomas! I thought his problems were down to me, as he seemed to crash every time I picked him, but I took him out yesterday and he still crashed, so I am absolved - it must be your fault...
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