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So, is today a breakaway stage or will the GC guys bring it back together for a big finish?

My money is on a select group reaching the finish together (mainly GC people) similar to the crazy stage during Tirreno-Adriatico.

My 1,2,3 for today is Sanchez, Quintana, Henao.  Sanchez has something to prove and Euskatel need a win, Quintana and Henao are both in great form and I can't see any group with Porte in making it to the finish at the front, why would you tow along Porte when he's just going to smash you to bits in the TT?

At this points in time Txurruka has pretty much sewn up the mountains and sprint jerseys so will he bother racing today?

No changes for me so I'll announce my team:

Contador, Porte, Quintana, Sanchez, Peraud, Ulissi, Txurruka, Cardoso, Betancurt

83 comments

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obutterwick [474 posts] 3 years ago
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Exactly my thinking. Tempted by one change - putting Peraud in. I'd do that for tomorrow, anyway, but can't decide what he'll do today.

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STEVESPRO 79 [546 posts] 3 years ago
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Cannot see any group making it to the finish without Porte...

Similar result as yesterday for me....Sanchez should feature well with the GC top 6....Loads of 200 points fantasy teams again....

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chrisdstripes [1733 posts] 3 years ago
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Agree with your synopsis drh, a couple of them thar hills near the end look pretty steep. I've been toying with the idea of dropping Ulissi in favour of a wildcard for the breakaway, as there's a bundle of KOM and sprint points available. Will probably decide to play safe given my position.

Still, the following are tempting to the long-odds gambler inside...
Albasini (can't afford him anyway)
Voight (ditto)
Kadri
Roche
Clarke
Anyone from Blanco

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TERatcliffe26 [4660 posts] 3 years ago
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Couldn't predict who would go in the break, so 1 transfer for me today. Will be annoyed if Pineau goes in the break now

Henao
Porte
Quintana
Contador
Spilak
Betancurt
Fuglsang
Txurruka
Weening (for Pineau)

Expect a sprinter finish of a select group of 30 odd riders, so expect Weening and Fuglsang to finish highly

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drheaton [3318 posts] 3 years ago
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My perfect wildcard would be Intxausti but at 30+ credits he's just too expensive.

Someone like Albasini, Pinot or Fuglsang might feature (I reckon a couple of distanced GC guys might try a strong break) but only if you think the break will reach the finish, I don't.

Maybe Cunego and Anton might feature if you think it'll come back together before the finish, they're more affordable too and Cunego hit the break on the similar Tirreno stage. Anton too might try to break away in order to ease the pressure on Sanchez a little.

But today is too unpredictable for me so I'm just going leave things as they are.

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chrisdstripes [1733 posts] 3 years ago
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I hovered over a couple of gambles for a break (BMC?), but there were just too many (equally unlikely) options, so ended up being boring and bringing in Peraud for Ulissi. So I have the top 7 on GC, plus Txurruka and a 3-credit guy to give me enough credits for the team I want tomorrow. Wonder what the weather's like out there?

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Stumps [3415 posts] 3 years ago
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Got rid of fuglsang and brought in Sanchez, only need 1 point to break the 5k barrier.

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livestrongnick [2118 posts] 3 years ago
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Dropped contador leaving my team looking like this

Porte for Beefy
Henao
Sanchez
Quintana
Spilak for Fugslang
Peraud For Madrazo
Txurruka
Ulissi
Betancurt

prop drop Henao & Betancurt tomorrow but don't know who for yet  39

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TERatcliffe26 [4660 posts] 3 years ago
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Looks like a Fuglsang/Weening 1-2 would do me nicely as everyone seems to be axing Fuglsang. Im gonna keep him for the ITT too as I don't see anyone of the same price range that is guranteed to be better, may bring in Sanchez for him though. Will drop Henao and Quintana for Martin and Peraud tomorrow and take the gamble on Contador as he should still be the best of those 3 a an ITT

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ray silvester [1836 posts] 3 years ago
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chrisdstripes wrote:

I hovered over a couple of gambles for a break (BMC?), but there were just too many (equally unlikely) options, so ended up being boring and bringing in Peraud for Ulissi. So I have the top 7 on GC, plus Txurruka and a 3-credit guy to give me enough credits for the team I want tomorrow. Wonder what the weather's like out there?

Is Peraud 100% after hsis skid across the line yesterday

I'm sticking with

Contador
Sanchez
Porte
Cunego
Fuglsang
Txurruka
Quintana
Spilak
Schleck(tried to go yesterday but reeled in easily).

5 transfers for the TT tomorrow but will porobably only use 3 taking out Cunego,Shrek and Sanchez and see what I can afford unless Contador gets shelled out of the back today(unlikely).

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chrisdstripes [1733 posts] 3 years ago
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Ooh, forgot about that (Peraud's skid) - hope so!

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Philip Unwin [991 posts] 3 years ago
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My Spanish is not brilliant but I think Diariovasco is saying that there is snow above 600 metres and so the high mountains are not passable, so there may be three transitions today

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drheaton [3318 posts] 3 years ago
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Crap, that throws a spanner in the works then.

Dodgy translation is as follows:

Quote:

Announce snow above 600 meters and the two highest levels of today's stage beyond that altitude. Urraki has 679 and Santa Ageda, between Bidania and Beizama, reaches 700.

The two passes are in the initial part of the route, in the first fifty kilometers. Layout designed by cyclists Organizations Euskadi between Eibar and Beasain is winding, difficult to control. Presents ten highest scoring (one of the first, second and four of five in the third) and three tip over because Liernia, on whose summit will transit three times, not award points for the Grand Prix of the Mountain.

The bad weather threatens to harden a seesaw complicated in itself in which both aspiring adventurers final victory cross their interests.

Difficult to understand but at the minute it appears as if they're just saying it's going to make today much harder.

I'll offer good odds on Schleck not finishing today's stage  19

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Alan Tullett [1568 posts] 3 years ago
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I've given up on Sanchez and Talansky. Hoping for something from them yesterday but nada! Not sure they'll even do well in the ITT. Played safe and brought in Contador and Spilak, bring in 2 or 3 for the TT tomorrow. I expect a fairly small group over the last climb, maybe 20 max and mostly GC favourites. Contador might try something today on the descent otherwise he's handing the race to Porte on a plate and he said he came here to win. Tomorrow's TT suits him better than the one in Catalyuna as well.

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arsene [205 posts] 3 years ago
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I'm pretty sure at least one of the Izagirre brothers will feature in the break today.

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drheaton [3318 posts] 3 years ago
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I agree, if anyone actually wants to win this race other than Porte they need to throw everything at him today. The problem is that with Henao up there too between them they can track the moves and keep Sky in a strong position.

I think Sanchez may do something today, both he and Euskatel need a win and I'm sure they'd like to take in this race.

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Philip Unwin [991 posts] 3 years ago
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Mountain 1
1 Txurruka
2 Pinot
3 Ratto

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simon F [1003 posts] 3 years ago
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According to biciclismo, Nordhaug, Pineau and Hupond are in a break. Meanwhile, according to diariovasco, Nordhaug, Pineau and Hupond didn't sign on this morning and the order over the first climb was ...
Txurruka (202 - Caja Rural),
Pinot (155 - FDJ),
Ratto (146 - Cannondale).

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chrisdstripes [1733 posts] 3 years ago
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My bad Spanish tells me that Txurruka was first over the first cat 3, followed by Pinot and Ratto. The next 2 are the ones that they might be missing out, depending on the weather. I think the peleton is all still together...

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Philip Unwin [991 posts] 3 years ago
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simon F wrote:

According to biciclismo, Nordhaug, Pineau and Hupond are in a break. Meanwhile, according to diariovasco, Nordhaug, Pineau and Hupond didn't sign on this morning and the order over the first climb was ...
Txurruka (202 - Caja Rural),
Pinot (155 - FDJ),
Ratto (146 - Cannondale).

They didn't sign in. I think fuga in this instance would mean they escaped from the race and baja can also translate as sick note.

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TERatcliffe26 [4660 posts] 3 years ago
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Points for my standard from Txurukka and another point for Ratto in purist  1

Glad I got rid of Pineau if abandoned (which I hope, not happy if in the break)

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Philip Unwin [991 posts] 3 years ago
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Kloden abandons and I suspect many more to follow. They are about to hit the place where it snowed this morning.

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Philip Unwin [991 posts] 3 years ago
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Gilbert gone. Schleck still going

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Philip Unwin [991 posts] 3 years ago
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Casar gone. come on 'drheaton' what odds are you offering for Schleck not finishing.

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Philip Unwin [991 posts] 3 years ago
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Valls & Vichot abandon. Any guesses on the number of finishers today? I think they're down to 141 now.

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Philip Unwin [991 posts] 3 years ago
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mountain 2
1 Herrada
2 Silin
3 Hesjedal
Silin has been the star of my disastrous purist team, giving me my fourth lanterne rouge of the season on stage 1, now he's in a break. Let me down on stage 3 though by foolishly finishing second last.

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Philip Unwin [991 posts] 3 years ago
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mountain 3
1 Herrada
2 Silin
3 Talansky

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drheaton [3318 posts] 3 years ago
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I never bothered to work out how many KoM points are available today, can Herrada catch Txurruka?

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Philip Unwin [991 posts] 3 years ago
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drheaton wrote:

I never bothered to work out how many KoM points are available today, can Herrada catch Txurruka?

Txurruka started with 61 Herrada with 6. 10 mountain passes today, but Txurruda has already won the first, so I think it's impossible.

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ray silvester [1836 posts] 3 years ago
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I think Txurruka probably done the maths and took the first one which I think seals the peas as it were!!

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