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Tough decisions to make today, will Txurruka go in the break again?  Will the same people be racing for the win or will the slightly easier finale make for a different selection.

My transfer decisions are basically which 2 of 3 riders do I drop for which 2 of 3 I want?

I can either drop Fuglsang and Barguil for Ulissi and Didier or another sub 6 credit rider or I can drop Peraud and Barguil for Ulissi and Txurruka.

I don't really want to drop Peraud and I'm worried that Txurruka pretty much has the jersey sewn up now so won't go in the break today but he's a guaranteed 10 points whatever happens.

121 comments

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chrisdstripes [1732 posts] 3 years ago
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I still have Gilbert, and Garcia who DNF yesterday, so they are my 2 to drop, with Henao to come in. So just have to decide whether to go for Spilak/Caruso, or have a shot at someone for the break. Will probably play it safe, which would leave me with 7 of yesterday's top 8, plus Txurruka and Landa...

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obutterwick [474 posts] 3 years ago
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Ulissi, Didier and Henao in for Cunego, Gavazzi and Faria Da Costa.

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chrisdstripes [1732 posts] 3 years ago
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I guess Txurruka is the conundrum - anyone who already has him will probably keep him, as its a guaranteed 10 points even if he doesn't go in the break. But if you don't have him, is it worth bringing him in? My wild guess is that he won't go today, but will tomorrow, just to make sure. Which would still make it worth bringing him in, I guess...

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drheaton [3318 posts] 3 years ago
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Hmmm, discouting the last climb today which is pretty much a summit finish there are 3 cat 2s and a cat 1. Tomorrow there are 5 cat 3s, 4 cat 2s and a cat 1, assuming that a break would be caught before the last couple of climbs which are near the finish that's still a hell of a lot of mountains tomorrow so it screams breakaway.

I may leave Txurruka out today and look to pull in a couple of breakaway riders for tomorrow.

The question is, do I pick up Didier today or Cardoso?

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rcorbin [212 posts] 3 years ago
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My team

Giampaolo Caruso (KAT)
Richie Porte (SKY)
Amets Txurruka (CJR)
Tejay van Garderen (BMC)
Nairo Quintana (MOV)
Rob Ruijgh (VCD)
Andy Schleck (RSN)
Samuel Sanchez (EUS)
Sergio Luis Henao (SKY)

Really don't know whether to keep TJ in or not.

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drheaton [3318 posts] 3 years ago
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At this point in time you may as well keep him in for the TT but I think he's overpriced for what he'll do in the mountains, that's why I went for Contador instead.

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rcorbin [212 posts] 3 years ago
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I had both Contador and TJ before yesterday's stage but dropped bertie for a few cheaper riders, should have dropped TJ.

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obutterwick [474 posts] 3 years ago
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Don't think TJ will do much until the ITT. Even then, Talansky could be the better option.

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chrisdstripes [1732 posts] 3 years ago
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I remember doing really badly on this stage last year (it was a very open field, with people like Nordhaug and Kiserlovski doing well, and Tony Martin actually), and again when they went up it in the Vuelta, so hoping for a better result today.

And I doubt I'll be able to resist the temptation of a random breakaway pick tomorrow, so I need to build up a bit of a cushion!

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TERatcliffe26 [4658 posts] 3 years ago
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Ive dropped Talansky and Cardoso for Henao and Betancurt, so Ive got Pineau down for todays break

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drheaton [3318 posts] 3 years ago
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I've brought in Cardoso expecting him to get in the break and potentially protected Txurruka's lead in the KoM. I've also swapped Fuglsang for Ulissi.

I see Talansky and Porte doing more today as the final climb is steadier and not nearly as steep as yesterday, I also see Porte as still being the main man for Sky purely because Henao will get destroyed in the final TT.

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chrisdstripes [1732 posts] 3 years ago
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drheaton wrote:

I've brought in Cardoso expecting him to get in the break and potentially protected Txurruka's lead in the KoM. I've also swapped Fuglsang for Ulissi.

I see Talansky and Porte doing more today as the final climb is steadier and not nearly as steep as yesterday, I also see Porte as still being the main man for Sky purely because Henao will get destroyed in the final TT.

We certainly differ in our perception of Henao's time-trialling ability drh!

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drheaton [3318 posts] 3 years ago
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chrisdstripes wrote:
drheaton wrote:

I've brought in Cardoso expecting him to get in the break and potentially protected Txurruka's lead in the KoM. I've also swapped Fuglsang for Ulissi.

I see Talansky and Porte doing more today as the final climb is steadier and not nearly as steep as yesterday, I also see Porte as still being the main man for Sky purely because Henao will get destroyed in the final TT.

We certainly differ in our perception of Henao's time-trialling ability drh!

Henao started the last stage of the Volta Algrave top of the GC, after a 35km TT on the last stage he dropped clean out of the top 10 losing over 3 minutes to Tony Martin and 2 minutes to Westra who I'm using as my Porte/Talansky type benchmark.

The final Pais Vasco TT is 24km and hilly so it's likely the gap will be smaller but I still see Porte and Talansky putting a minute or two into Henao.

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TERatcliffe26 [4658 posts] 3 years ago
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I took Talanksy out for Henao as my plan for the ITT is to pick up Peraud and Martin so couldn't afford anyway, so there is logic in my madness

I also left in Fuglsang as I think he will top 5 in tomorrows stage and for the ITT now he seems to have some kind of form back

Im worried about dropping Cardoso now  39 7

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livestrongnick [2118 posts] 3 years ago
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one change today brought in betancurt, considered dropping fugslang and Henao for porte and Talansky but holding back for ITT  26 39
Sticking with Txurraka think he will go again today!

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drheaton [3318 posts] 3 years ago
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I've got my finger hovering over the transfer button, tempted by a Spilak for Txurruka switch today. It'll cost me 10 points in penalties but I'll get a guaranteed 10 points from Txurruka.

It's risky and if he doesn't go in the break I'm likely to lose 10-15 points on it but if he does go in the break I could be up 20+ points  39

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obutterwick [474 posts] 3 years ago
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And we're off...!

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drheaton [3318 posts] 3 years ago
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Are you sure? Official start is 13:25 local time.

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chrisdstripes [1732 posts] 3 years ago
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drheaton wrote:
chrisdstripes wrote:
drheaton wrote:

I've brought in Cardoso expecting him to get in the break and potentially protected Txurruka's lead in the KoM. I've also swapped Fuglsang for Ulissi.

I see Talansky and Porte doing more today as the final climb is steadier and not nearly as steep as yesterday, I also see Porte as still being the main man for Sky purely because Henao will get destroyed in the final TT.

We certainly differ in our perception of Henao's time-trialling ability drh!

Henao started the last stage of the Volta Algrave top of the GC, after a 35km TT on the last stage he dropped clean out of the top 10 losing over 3 minutes to Tony Martin and 2 minutes to Westra who I'm using as my Porte/Talansky type benchmark.

The final Pais Vasco TT is 24km and hilly so it's likely the gap will be smaller but I still see Porte and Talansky putting a minute or two into Henao.

Yeah - not saying I'll pick him, but I think he's in better shape now than he was in Algarve, and it is a hilly TT. I just thought "destroyed" was a strong word - I think he might surprise a few people on Saturday...

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drheaton [3318 posts] 3 years ago
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I guess destroyed is fairly strong but I see a 2 or 3 minute loss to fellow GC 'contenders' as being destroyed really. It's enough to drop you right out of contention in these short races and I think Henao may struggle to stay in the top 10.

My main point was that whatever Henao did yesterday and does today, as long as Porte can stay within a minute of him, he's team leader. If Porte manages to pull off the win then it'll be mightly impressive seeing as Sky only brought 6 riders.

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obutterwick [474 posts] 3 years ago
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drheaton wrote:

Are you sure? Official start is 13:25 local time.

No, but deadline for transfers was reached.

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ray silvester [1836 posts] 3 years ago
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I bought Spilak in for Elissonde and banked a transfer.....I'll only be bringing in guys who can time trial now anyway.

Contador
Porte
Cunego
Spilak
Sanchez
Fuglsang
Txurruka
Quintana
Schleck

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drheaton [3318 posts] 3 years ago
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Dropped Spilak, Barguil and Fuglsang, drafted in Cardoso, Txurruka and Ulissi

Contador
Peraud
Porte
Sanchez
Quintana
Ulissi
Cardoso
Txurruka
Betancurt

In the end decided that Spilak was boring and steady enough to get rid of, can't see him getting more than 15 points today. Plan is to keep it broadly the same tomorrow then bring in Martin, Talansky and a couple of others and drop Contador, maybe Quintana and possibly Sanchez.

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chrisdstripes [1732 posts] 3 years ago
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drheaton wrote:

I guess destroyed is fairly strong but I see a 2 or 3 minute loss to fellow GC 'contenders' as being destroyed really. It's enough to drop you right out of contention in these short races and I think Henao may struggle to stay in the top 10.

My main point was that whatever Henao did yesterday and does today, as long as Porte can stay within a minute of him, he's team leader. If Porte manages to pull off the win then it'll be mightly impressive seeing as Sky only brought 6 riders.

Definitely agree with that, Porte is Team leader, and with Sky down to 6, Henao may even have to work for him today in the last 5km, despite wearing the leader's jersey. Still think he'll have a good TT tho  3

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TERatcliffe26 [4658 posts] 3 years ago
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drheaton wrote:

Dropped Spilak, Barguil and Fuglsang, drafted in Cardoso, Txurruka and Ulissi

Contador
Peraud
Porte
Sanchez
Quintana
Ulissi
Cardoso
Txurruka
Betancurt

In the end decided that Spilak was boring and steady enough to get rid of, can't see him getting more than 15 points today. Plan is to keep it broadly the same tomorrow then bring in Martin, Talansky and a couple of others and drop Contador, maybe Quintana and possibly Sanchez.

Drop Contador, really?

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drheaton [3318 posts] 3 years ago
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TERatcliffe26 wrote:

Drop Contador, really?

Possibly, he's my most expensive rider and I don't know what form he's in for the TT, Martin though is a banker and TJVG is a good bet, as is Talansky. Keeping Contador means I can't bring in all of those guys.

Yeah Contador may be up there in the top 10 but since coming back he hasn't look as good as he was in his beefed up days.

EDIT: Some stats, this season Contador has raced two TTs as far as I can tell, a 19.2km one at the Tour San Luis and a short 9.2km one at Tirreno-Adriatico.

San Luis, Contador was 13th, a minute down on winner Svein Tuft. Tirreno, Contador was 17th, 30 seconds down on Tony Martin.

You can't really take anything from either of those except that Contador is no longer capable of ripping up TTs as well as mountains. He should top 10 because there aren't the same depth of TT specialists in Pais Vasco but Martin will certainly be worth more points than Contador.

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TERatcliffe26 [4658 posts] 3 years ago
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drheaton wrote:
TERatcliffe26 wrote:

Drop Contador, really?

Possibly, he's my most expensive rider and I don't know what form he's in for the TT, Martin though is a banker and TJVG is a good bet, as is Talansky. Keeping Contador means I can't bring in all of those guys.

Yeah Contador may be up there in the top 10 but since coming back he hasn't look as good as he was in his beefed up days.

I see your point but lets see how much either Tejay or Talansky loose today, I can't really afford half of them anyway haha, think im gonna play it safe and keep Txurruka and his safe points, but we shall see.

Talansky may beat Contador, but what Talansky finishes 5th, Contador 8th maybe, contador higher in the GC  39

Top 3 for the ITT I reckon will be Martin, Porte and then its very tight and could be anyone.

Also I can't see any cheaper riders to shove in that even have a chance, so will keep Betancurt, maybe get rid of spilak, and put Serry in for Pineau as he is cheaper and for his 5 point bonus

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drheaton [3318 posts] 3 years ago
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I'll be keeping Betancurt, possibly Txurruka if I can afford to then bringing some of the mid-price TTers at around 15-20 credits. Dropping Contador allows me to do that. In fact I may not bother with Talansky/TJVG if I think I can spread the credits around better but it'll depend alot on GC points available.

Also, I don't want to take too much of a hit on penalty transfers.

I agree, there aren't many sub-10 points riders worth picking for the TT. I think that's just the way the values fall on these short races. One TT stage in amongst 21 in a Grand Tour means it's has less weight and therefore TTers would be cheaper, one TT stage in 6 means it's considerably more important.

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ray silvester [1836 posts] 3 years ago
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TERatcliffe26 wrote:
drheaton wrote:

Dropped Spilak, Barguil and Fuglsang, drafted in Cardoso, Txurruka and Ulissi

Contador
Peraud
Porte
Sanchez
Quintana
Ulissi
Cardoso
Txurruka
Betancurt

In the end decided that Spilak was boring and steady enough to get rid of, can't see him getting more than 15 points today. Plan is to keep it broadly the same tomorrow then bring in Martin, Talansky and a couple of others and drop Contador, maybe Quintana and possibly Sanchez.

Drop Contador, really?

Quintana had a good ITT recently too (Paris-Nice Col D'Eze)3rd behind Porte/Talansky and beating Tejay,Kloden,Peraud,Chavanel,Coppel,Menchov,Velits and Spilak amongst others¬!!

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TERatcliffe26 [4658 posts] 3 years ago
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ray silvester wrote:
TERatcliffe26 wrote:
drheaton wrote:

Dropped Spilak, Barguil and Fuglsang, drafted in Cardoso, Txurruka and Ulissi

Contador
Peraud
Porte
Sanchez
Quintana
Ulissi
Cardoso
Txurruka
Betancurt

In the end decided that Spilak was boring and steady enough to get rid of, can't see him getting more than 15 points today. Plan is to keep it broadly the same tomorrow then bring in Martin, Talansky and a couple of others and drop Contador, maybe Quintana and possibly Sanchez.

Drop Contador, really?

Quintana had a good ITT recently too (Paris-Nice Col D'Eze)3rd behind Porte/Talansky and beating Tejay,Kloden,Peraud,Chavanel,Coppel,Menchov,Velits and Spilak amongst others¬!!

Yes but that was totally different, 9km up a hill is what Qunitana is good at, not 24km on rolling terrain

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