TDU Strategy for Standard Teams

by ray silvester   January 18, 2013  

I suppose it depends on whether you see the race as:

A) 4 flat sprints,then a hilly finish and another sprint to close or

B) Is there something in one of the early stages to break the race up.

if A then it's hard to argue with Greipel and Kittel as automatic choices with any 2 of Guardini/Ferrari/Renshaw.
Then it's probably one of the UnivSouthAust boys for a cheap breakaway chance and then look for value sprinters to fill out the team.

if B then it's probably more tricky unless you can afford Greipel and EBH(unlikely unless you load up with cheap squad guys)you'd have to judge the transfer from one to the other perfectly.You'd also be looking for those who can ignite a race at the tricky point you feel will decide the race....Voigt,Durbridge,Clarke and DeGendt look the obvoius candidates for that sort of thing.

Anyone else see anything else?

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Yeah, I haven't looked closely at the stages but I don't think there's more than one ranked climb in any stage except stage 5, right? Somebody in the "Tour Down Under" thread mentioned there was another stage where some sprinters might be dropped, but I'd have to go back and check...

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posted by enrique [1515 posts]
18th January 2013 - 16:38

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First two stages are definitely flats. On the website they class 3 and 4 as medium mountains but I would still favour the sprinters. Surprised not mentioned Goss as a possible main spriter, will be healthier than this time last year and on home turf has to be in the reckoning. Got a couple of breakaway chances in amongst the sprinters for standard team, and then an extra one and a GC contender for the purist. What are peoples thoughts on Schleck? Ridiculous low price, and I think his starting this early in the season has to carry some significance for his attitude going into the season.

posted by siberia [2 posts]
18th January 2013 - 18:04

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The weather maybe the biggest threat with temps in Sydney reaching 46 cent. That in itself may slow the pace down and prevent any real breakaways from pushing hard. Thinking

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posted by stumps [2668 posts]
18th January 2013 - 19:15

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siberia wrote:
What are peoples thoughts on Schleck? Ridiculous low price, and I think his starting this early in the season has to carry some significance for his attitude going into the season.

he's certainly undervalued. but then he only scored 10 points all of last season in the fantasy game. it's a case of whether you think he's there to shake things up or just get a few miles in the legs. i suspect the latter

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posted by Dave Atkinson [7252 posts]
18th January 2013 - 21:25

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Not sure stage 2 favours a bunch kick at all. Strava rates the corkscrew climb 9.2% for 1.5 miles.

http://www.strava.com/segments/santos-tour-down-under-challenge-2660322

Enough to break it up. And quote Sky's Sutton:

“Me and G (Geraint Thomas) have done some recon over a few of the circuits. I don’t think it’s just going to come down to the Willunga stage. Stage two on the Corkscrew is a pretty hard climb. It’s going to be a fast downhill run into it before a hard left-hand turn. Everyone is going to be lined out before it kicks up again. I think that could be quite decisive too. It depends who has the legs. "

One for the Puncheurs, perhaps.

posted by Rant [13 posts]
18th January 2013 - 21:33

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Yeah....I kind of reckon G will have a little pop somewhere especially if everyone's marking EBH?

posted by silas chime [207 posts]
19th January 2013 - 1:37

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siberia wrote:
First two stages are definitely flats. On the website they class 3 and 4 as medium mountains but I would still favour the sprinters. Surprised not mentioned Goss as a possible main spriter, will be healthier than this time last year and on home turf has to be in the reckoning. Got a couple of breakaway chances in amongst the sprinters for standard team, and then an extra one and a GC contender for the purist. What are peoples thoughts on Schleck? Ridiculous low price, and I think his starting this early in the season has to carry some significance for his attitude going into the season.

I think Goss is a better bet in a purist team as he'll probably get 4 or 5 top 10 stage finishes but I don't think he can live with Greipel(or Kittel,Guardini or Ferrari for that matter) in a standard flat bunch sprint.

posted by ray silvester [1747 posts]
19th January 2013 - 10:40

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silas chime wrote:
Yeah....I kind of reckon G will have a little pop somewhere especially if everyone's marking EBH?

I hope so, but not sure how much licence he will get. He may be lead out for Sutton or EBH for most of the race.

posted by Rant [13 posts]
20th January 2013 - 0:31

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strategy should be to pick the aussies. they will be hyped up to win at home. go chris sutton.

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posted by JAndrewHill [1209 posts]
20th January 2013 - 1:37

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