tdf-stage 16

by thefatcyclist   July 17, 2012  

Starting this one early. Well desperate times call for desperate measures. I've taken a big penalty hit and redesigned my team around breakaway specialists from teams with no stage wins, and 2 high ranking non GC jersey holders. Get this right I score ok with 2 HC etc and downhill finish. Get it wrong and I go down down down.

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Conservative is no bad thing, conservative is certainly the way to go when you're near the top of the league as I've found in general that taking risks never pays off. It's only because I'm so far behind I've picked Rolland and Kessiakoff otherwise it'd be Nibali and Zubeldia probably, or Van den Broeck maybe.

posted by drheaton [3429 posts]
18th July 2012 - 9:09

1 Like

I agree that Rolland and Kessiakoff are very atractive thanks to the KOM battle and think that this is the kind of stage for Nibali to attack on the final climb and try and make it stick on the descent..

That left me with a decision on the fourth star and I went for Tejay over Roche as I can then leave him in right through to the time trial.

This will be my team for today and tomorrow barring withdrawal

Nibali
VanGarderen
Kessiakoff
Rolland
Pinot
Albasini
Vichot
Edet
Izagirre

Also it comes to exactly 150 credits so hoping that's an omen Nerd

posted by silas chime [208 posts]
18th July 2012 - 9:37

0 Likes

Grrr Angry

Fedrigo is in the break, I had him down as a must have for this stage (he always wins on the Tourmalet stage!) but figured he wouldn't bother after Monday Crying

Sounds like a huge break of 38 including the likes of Voeckler, Vinokourov, Kessiakoff, Paulinho, Egoi Martinez, Brice Feillu and Jens Voigt.

posted by drheaton [3429 posts]
18th July 2012 - 9:56

2 Likes

intermediate sprint wrote:
1. Paulinho (STB) 20pts
2. Casar (FDJ) 17pts
3. Kruiswijk (RAB) 15pts
4. Arashiro (EUC) 13pts
5. Vorganov (KAT) 11pts
6. Cummings (BMC) 10pts
7. Marzano ( 9pts
8. Vals Ferri (VCD) 8pts
9. Voigt (RNT) 7pts
10. Martin (GRS) 6pts
11. Azanza (EUS) 5pts
12. Ladagnous (FDJ) 4pts
13. Kiryienka (MOV) 3pts
14. Levarlet (SAU) 2pts
15. Costa (MOV) 1pt

posted by drheaton [3429 posts]
18th July 2012 - 9:57

0 Likes

I have at least 6 in the break, although a couple of them will undoubtedly get dropped on Aubisque.

posted by Wig_Billy [577 posts]
18th July 2012 - 9:59

1 Like

The break:

Quote:

The 38 stage leaders
Cummings, Hincapie (BMC)
Popovych, Voigt (RNT)
Voeckler, Arashiro (EUC)
Azanza, Martinez and Izaguirre (EUS)
Hondo, Manzano, Stortoni (LAM)
Martin (GRS)
Bouet, Minard (ALM)
Taaramae, Dumoulin (COF)
Feillu, Levarlet, Marino (SAU)
Hoogerland, Valls Ferri (VCD)
Caruso, Trofimov, Vorganov (KAT)
Casar, Fedrigo, Ladagnous (FDJ)
Kruiswijk, Ten Dam (RAB)
Costa, Karpets, Kiryienka (MOV)
Paulinho, C. Sorensen (STB)
Kessiakoff, Vinokourov (AST)
Sprick (ARG)

I have one Crying

I have at some time or another had about 7 of those and I have two Saur riders today, Simon and Jeandesboz, unfortunately three of the other Saur riders decided to get in the break instead Angry

posted by drheaton [3429 posts]
18th July 2012 - 10:06

1 Like

My team.

Michele Scarponi (LAM)
Steven Kruijswijk (RAB) in the break
Fredrik Kessiakoff (AST) in the break
Chris Anker Sorensen (SAX) in the break
Matthieu Ladagnous (FDJ) in the break
Yann Huguet (ARG)
Vasil Kiryienka (MOV) in the break
Yukiya Arashiro (EUC) in the break
Julien Simon (SAU)

Cool

posted by Wig_Billy [577 posts]
18th July 2012 - 10:07

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I've got
Kessiakoff
Izagirre
Dan Martin(6 int sprint points)

Looks like 3 way for polka today Nerd

Kessiakoff
Voeckler
Sorensen

Maybe 4 with Casar in the break too Thinking

'Don't look back. Something might be gaining on you'

livestrongnick's picture

posted by livestrongnick [1848 posts]
18th July 2012 - 10:08

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It depends, HC are 15 points each, cat 1 is 10 points so today the max you can get is 50. As long as Kessiakoff places well on every climb he should be ok, he's got a 30 point cushion back to Sorensen and 32 to Voeckler.

I think there's another 42 on offer tomorrow so I reckon as long as Kessiakoff picks up 30 points today he'll have the jersey in the bag.

Dissapointed with Rolland though, thought he might fancy his chances.

posted by drheaton [3429 posts]
18th July 2012 - 10:15

1 Like

Rolland's only aim is a good GC place and he wouldn't be allowed in the break anyway.

posted by Wig_Billy [577 posts]
18th July 2012 - 10:23

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I don't know, if you had the choice between top 10 GC and the polka dot jersey which would you choose?

He's likely to lose another good few minutes against the clock on Saturday so I'm sure Sky would let him go, they weren't fussed when he got in the break to win a stage last week.

posted by drheaton [3429 posts]
18th July 2012 - 10:26

1 Like

Yes but in the race it's actually 25 points for 1st over HC CAT CLIMB Big Grin
So battle is on!

'Don't look back. Something might be gaining on you'

livestrongnick's picture

posted by livestrongnick [1848 posts]
18th July 2012 - 10:33

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drheaton wrote:
I don't know, if you had the choice between top 10 GC and the polka dot jersey which would you choose?

He's likely to lose another good few minutes against the clock on Saturday so I'm sure Sky would let him go, they weren't fussed when he got in the break to win a stage last week.

Other teams with riders in the top 10 would be worried about letting him go, not just Sky.

posted by Wig_Billy [577 posts]
18th July 2012 - 10:35

1 Like

Wig_Billy wrote:
drheaton wrote:
I don't know, if you had the choice between top 10 GC and the polka dot jersey which would you choose?

He's likely to lose another good few minutes against the clock on Saturday so I'm sure Sky would let him go, they weren't fussed when he got in the break to win a stage last week.

Other teams with riders in the top 10 would be worried about letting him go, not just Sky.

True, but if I were Sky that'd only encourage me to let him go Smile Let Liquigas, BMC and Lotto do some work to chase him down.

I see what you mean though, I guess the polka dot jersey just doesn't mean as much as it used to.

Also, yeah, forgot to check what points were actually on offer annd just went with what I could remember, obviously just the fantasy points Confused

posted by drheaton [3429 posts]
18th July 2012 - 10:43

1 Like

Well its a better start for me - the three I wanted in the break are all in (Stortoni, Valls and Chris-Anker), but with 35 others its unlikely that the first two will score much, although Sorensen should hopefully be going for it. Then Rolland, Froome and Pinot to come through later, and Jeandesbosz and De Weert saving themselves for tomorrow, with Boeckmans dead last - Perfect!

chrisdstripes's picture

posted by chrisdstripes [1648 posts]
18th July 2012 - 10:45

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Quote:
Result of the col d'Aubisque
1. Voeckler (EUC) 15pts
2. Kessiakoff (AST) 12pts
3. Arashiro (EUC) 10pts
4. Sorensen (STB) 18pts
5. Vinokourov (AST) 6pts
6. Martin (GRS) 5pts
7. Karpets (MOV) 4pts - at 12"
8. Martinez (EUS) 3pts
9. Vorganov (KAT) 2pts
10. Izaguirre (EUS) 1pts

Those are fantasy points by the way, Voeckler (62) has closed the gap on Kessiakoff (89) to 27 points. Rolland (55) is now 34 points behind Kessiakoff in 3rd and is pretty much out of it now, Sorensen (53) in 4th.

posted by drheaton [3429 posts]
18th July 2012 - 11:09

1 Like

38 in the break and i've got just 3. Not good enough.

HC: 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
1st cat: 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1
2nd cat: 5, 3, 2, 1
3rd cat: 5, 3
4th cat: 5

BTW

posted by thefatcyclist [584 posts]
18th July 2012 - 11:14

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maybe brining in Rolland was amistake, but couldnt afford voeckler, although i expect him to be at the finish for tomorrows stage and try and win it.

so far 14pts for casar at the sprint, then 12 for kessiakoff and 1 for izagirre

posted by TERatcliffe26 [3993 posts]
18th July 2012 - 11:51

1 Like

Evans being distanced by Basso/Nibali and Sky, the big question is, do BMC allow TJvG to stay with the front group or does he have to help out his leader?

posted by drheaton [3429 posts]
18th July 2012 - 13:53

1 Like

Looks like another day where I do reasonably well, but miss out on the big scorer of the day (Voeckler today).

posted by Wig_Billy [577 posts]
18th July 2012 - 14:20

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I'm suffering from my stubbornness not to pick Izaguirre just because everyone else has!

chrisdstripes's picture

posted by chrisdstripes [1648 posts]
18th July 2012 - 14:55

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Stortoni about 8th though so that makes up for it a bit!

chrisdstripes's picture

posted by chrisdstripes [1648 posts]
18th July 2012 - 15:00

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Voeckler worth 100 points today! 2 HC's (15 each), 2 cat 1's (10 each), combative, first on the stage and KoM jersey leader!

Not a day to miss that one.

posted by drheaton [3429 posts]
18th July 2012 - 15:05

1 Like

I give up.

posted by Wig_Billy [577 posts]
18th July 2012 - 15:12

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I already had Rolland and Kessiakoff in my team so I thought I was covered for the KoM.

I wrong I was Angry

posted by Marauder [245 posts]
18th July 2012 - 15:25

1 Like

-15 Big Grin Big Grin Big Grin

posted by thefatcyclist [584 posts]
18th July 2012 - 16:46

1 Like

aaaargh why did I put in Rolland, not Voeckler!

posted by Rvizzle [97 posts]
18th July 2012 - 18:32

1 Like

Cavendish beat Scarponi today - I wonder what the odds were on that? Big Grin

chrisdstripes's picture

posted by chrisdstripes [1648 posts]
18th July 2012 - 20:33

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I've pretty much given up and didn't even bother making transfers for today's stage.

I promptly got my highest score of this year's Tour.

Thinking

Simon_MacMichael's picture

posted by Simon_MacMichael [8487 posts]
18th July 2012 - 22:00

1 Like

Wig_Billy wrote:
Rolland's only aim is a good GC place and he wouldn't be allowed in the break anyway.

That did cross my mind & now REALLY wish I'd put Voeckler in instead!!! Crying

posted by d_jp [109 posts]
18th July 2012 - 23:45

1 Like