Stage 5 Rouen-StQuentin

I'm gambling that Cav won't have recovered fully from yesterdays crash.

Sagan
Greipel
Goss
Van Hummel

Simon
Arashiro
Cantwell
Boeckemans
Gallopin

I'm gambling on Cav having recovered and being properly pissed off

Cavendish
Sagan
Goss
Van Hummel
Arashiro
Ladagnous
Levarlet
Boeckmans
Izagirre

Looks like four are trying to get away up front.

Urtasun
Ghyselinck
Simon
Ladagnous

Kinda hacked off as I had Simon until last night! The break shouldn't take too many points today as there are no categorised climbs.

Yeah, Greipel again today for me.

Not getting guys in the break REALLY annoys me.

As I said yesterday, I don't like how heavily the breaks are scoring this year and it's only going to get worse in the mountains. It makes not guessing a breakaway guy really penal as you're losing out on upwards of 20 points per breakaway rider on flat stages (5 points for every poxy cat 4 ) and it could make a different of 50 points in the mountains. Still, at least for now we're all getting intermediate sprint points.

Cav for the win today, Goss to be useless again, Van Hummel to crash at the intermediate sprint and Sagan to just be there somewhere. Also hoping Arashiro's recovered enough to contest the sprints.

Shocking opening to the TDF so far probably due to too much concentration on those in guaranteed points positions when 1 breakaway intermediate sprint first 5 placing gains enough to wipe out a 1st place GC plus holding Cancellara is s-o-o-o expensive.

Took out Cancellara and Boassen Hagen today for my expected top 2 Cavendish(he likes stage 5 in previous TDF's) and Greipel(form + train).

Greipel
Cavendish
Chavanel
Oss
Cantwell
Morkov
Edet
Engoulvent
Albasini

That will stay the same tomorrow then looking to bring in the likes of Pinot/Van Garderen/Evans/Rogers for stage 7.

If that fails my head will be swerving towards Poland

A lone breakaway rider in first place over all the checkpoints in stage 8 for example would get:

Climbs 1-5 5pts each
Intermediate sprint 15pts
climb 6 5pts
climb 7 10pts
likely combative award 10pts
at least 4 end of day KOM comp pts

69 points and could still bump that up by finishing last(unlikely but not impossible) and on the winners team!!!

You must be making the same picks as me! i had simon till last night...

my team now is

Cav
Sagan
goss
Veelers

Izagirre
Edet
Arashiro
Lancaster
Zabriske

Cav
Sagan
Veelers
Goss
Lancaster
Bernaudeau
Cantwell
Boeckmans
Morkov

for me. come on you sprinters. no-one in the break for me today, but no climbs so shouldn't be too much of a disadvantage...

I kept simon so hopefully a nice 12-15 point bonus coming... I LOVE the way you can score big points on breakaways like stage 8 - some will take risks and others will play safe, makes it more fun for me! And in a tour, if you go 200 points behind early on, it gives you more of a chance to come back.

Put Morkov in for Urtasun but not too bothered as Morkov is guaranteed to lead KOM competition at the end of today and tomorrow and I feel he'll rest up and challenge for more climbs on stages 7-8.

The Veelers for Freire swap was based on Oscar seemingly intent on crashing or causing one and Veelers being Argos' DeFacto sprinter with Kittel struggling(knee problems on top of stomach bug).Kittel even backs Veelers for a win today!!

In fact Kittel's just abandoned!!

yeah kittels out.

There are four men already out of the Tour of 2012. Three have broken bones (collabone for Rojas, tibia for Sivtsov, hip for Tjallingii) and one has suffered stomach ailments since the start (Kittel).

Got my team sorted and took a penalty to get them so hopefully it goes well, mind you cant get any worse than previous

Cav
Griepel
Sagan
Oss
Impey
Cooke
Cantwell
Iglinsky
Astarloza

What's everyone plan for the weekend? Save transfers and have 4 for Saturday is obvious, but on Sunday anything could happen and Monday's a TT!

My plan at the minute is 4 on Saturday, try for two breakaway guys on Sunday and bring in two TT specialists for Monday but I'm wavering.

Thoughts?

Hmm...

4 for saturday(Cav/Greipel/Veelers out+1 DS) and there are at least 2 decent climbing/breakaway/TT guys(Sagan out +1 DS) for sunday then 2 big TT DS' in for sunday.

Morkov staying put.

I think the weekend will be all about the white jersey race with Tejay/Poels/Taaramae/Pinot/Kruijswijk likely to be the top 5 in the young guns competition after the TT but in what order?

Hurrah!

1. Ladagnous (FDJ) 15pts
2. Urtasun (EUS) 14pts
3. Simon (SAU) 13pts
4. Ghyselinck (COF) 12pts
5. Cavendish (SKY) 11pts
6. Goss (OGE) 10pts
7. Renshaw (RAB) 9pts
8. Sagan (LIQ) 8pts
9. Boasson Hagen (SKY) 7pts
10. Van Hummel (VCD) 6pts
11. Hutarovich (FDJ) 5pts
12. Petacchi (LAM) 4pts
13. Gretsch (ARG) 3pts
14. Impey (OGE) 2pts
15. Krivtsov (LAM) 1pt

A tidy 50 points from that sprint, I still don't like it though

Personally I can't see Morkov doing anything this weekend, he's on the track with the Danish pursuit squad at the olympics and I think this week was all about getting Saxo some exposure and getting a jersey for a few days, I don't think he's got any designs on the jersey long term.

I can't decide whether to bring in people like Wiggins and Evans who can climb (but will finish mid pack on Saturday) and TT or to bring in proper climbers/breakaway people. That's my main dilemma.

21 pts for me at the intermediate

No reason Morkov won't try to hang on to it for a few days but agree that with 20/16/12/8/4/2 real life points at the summit finish of stage 7 he could be out of the KOM running afterwards.

The only reason I'm sure that he'll still be in the team is that my other DS' (Impey/Boeckmans/Cantwell and Cooke)have NO chance of doing anything on those days and credits aren't a problem once the big star sprinters are replaced with guys like Tejay/Poels etc.

my plan is no transfers between today and tomorrow, so 4 for saturday (on will be a TT guy also for monday) then no transfers between saturday and sunday yto give me 4 for the TT, then its rest day so can make 4 for after the TT....

Sounds like a plan although I'm loath to give up on what could potentially be a huge scoring day on Sunday Picking a breakaway rider on Sunday could be worth more than two rides in the top 3! Decisions decisions...

My plan is to make 4 transfers after tomorrow, keep the same team for Sat/Sun, and then 4 more transfers for the TT. Tried to bring in the kind of guys I think will try to get in the break on Sunday, as well as a couple of GC guys for balance...

LeTour live text suggests Cav's getting a full on lead-out today... this could be interesting

Another fall, sounds like a big one, caused by someone from Garmin. Not sure if it's inside last 3km but sounds like carnage!

Also, Baden Cooke riding the last 5km on a flat tire, what a legend.

Griepel takes it ahead of Goss and Haedo, sounds like Sagan and Farrar caught in the crash with Hutarovich and Van Hummel but it was inside 3km.

Break stayed out until last 500m.

typical.....i take out haedo and he comes 3rd!!! not having any luck this tour

1 GREIPEL André
2.GOSS Matthew Harley
3.HAEDO Juan Jose
4.CAVENDISH Mark
5.DUMOULIN Samuel
6.VEELERS Tom
7.FREIRE Oscar
8.PETACCHI Alessandro
9.HINAULT Sébastien
10.GENE Yohann
11.MOLLEMA Bauke
12.LADAGNOUS Matthieu
13.BOZIC Borut
14.VAN HUMMEL Kenny Robert
15.MARTINEZ Egoi
16.BRAJKOVIC Janez
17.SANCHEZ Samuel
18.WIGGINS Bradley
19.MILLAR David
20.SCHÄR Michael

Getting rid of Cav for Sagan was a great decision...

2, 4, 12 and 14 plus 50 intermediate sprint points and hopefuly combativity. Not bad but I suspect once again that someone will be up near 200 for the stage win. Pity Sagan went down.

1,2 and not much else, Sagan and van Hummel in the crash I think. Thought the break might hold on for a sec - Phil Liggett was getting a bit confused about how close the finishing line was...

Van Hummel reportedly finished 14th.

Ah, van Hummel 14th, better than nothing. Ladagnous gets combativity according to the LeTour website - a bit of a French decision I feel - Ghyselinck and Urtasun were the two that really went for it at the end surely?

Ladagnous took 12th at the line and instigated the break, I think that's fair (plus, he's in my team).

Ha! Fair enough if he did a lot of the work in the break, I only saw the last 20k. Guilty of forming an opinion based on very little knowledge there!
I thought I'd be average today, but actually moved up into the top 100. Can make one transfer today (Boeckmans out) and still have 4 transfers for tomorrow to get rid of my star sprinters - finding it a lot more difficult to pick stars for the weekend though!

Lampre took Farrar out.

lol

4 transfers? are you sure you can do that?

Loving the highlights tonight, can't believe Griepel managed to stay upright after bouncing between Farrar and Sagan (although annoyed he took out Sagan )

Still amazes me how good the riders are at handling their bikes in those kind of situations.

Took out JJ too. I'm crap, have no idea what i'm doing, can't pick a ds to save myself. Thinking that FDJ are going to send a different person into the break every day, so trying Pineau for tommorrow. What stage will Casar go for is the thing bothering me most. 14th of July is nearly pan flat. Maybe casar goes Sunday, I think i'll try him then.

Plan B is to go for 5 2-3 point ds and pile the rest into the stars after the TT, can't do any worse than i'm doing.

Sunday is where i wished Casar was actually a star rider at his 16 credit price (due to my credit situation)....

Anyway a diff frenchman will be in for sat/sun

So pick them!!! That's half the fun of the game. I have had several riders this year get upwards of 60 points and it gives me a far bigger kick than getting 1,2 or more in a sprint.

And there aren't many more points on offer this year than last. Even last year, I think intermediate sprint points in the Tour were 10 down to 1 and there are fewer points if a rider comes lower down the order on the lower cat climbs, in line with the Tour itself, compared to last year so your guy or guys has to come first or second to get much early on.

That's nothing! I rode 28 miles on a flat at the weekend after doing 80 and missed the second half of The Euros because of my stupid decision to take a mended inner tube out with me that didn't work.