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Morning all, big day today with the real possibility of a shake up in the fantasy standings.

Guaranteed breakaway with the possibility of a breakaway win, I predict a big group of 12+ going away and most of them staying away to the end with a 3-5 minute lead.

I'm utterly hopeless at picking breakaway guys and my usual pick, De Gendt, is too close in the GC to be allowed to go away so I've gone for extra guaranteed points in the form of Rubiano and Golas. I've also kept Cavendish and Hunter (another possible break rider) for the flat stage tomorrow.

My team:

Rodriguez
Hesjedal
Cavendish
Hunter

Pozzovivo
Caruso
Tiralongo
Rubiano
Golas

So, who're you hoping will get in the break and how do you think today will play out?

67 comments

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livestrongnick [2118 posts] 4 years ago
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Not made many changes, like most people i never get in the breaks!  2

Joaquin Rodriguez (KAT)
Matthew Goss (GRE)
Sergio Luis Henao (SKY)
Benat Intxausti (MOV)
Dario Cataldo (OPQ)
Damiano Caruso (LIQ)
Arnaud Demare (FDJ)
Miguel Angel Rubiano (AND)
Paolo Tiralongo (AST)

Would like to see a sky man in the break only Eisel needs to work for Cav today so the others can push on  3

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drheaton [3318 posts] 4 years ago
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I can't see Uran or Henao being allowed to get away but Flecha has a good chance, it all depends on who gets in the break, it could take 3 or 4 attempts today for the right break to form and if Flecha isn't in that one then he's missed it. Should be a fast first hour or so at any rate.

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TERatcliffe26 [4634 posts] 4 years ago
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I think I was half asleep when i made my transfers.....

Think my team is

J-Rod
Haeno
Hesjedal
Kreuziger

Caruso
Pozzovivo
Demare
Kristoff
Huzarski

I didnt really look at the stage profile, so didnt put in a breakaway guy  2 hoping a sprinter like Kristoff or Demare my give a break ago (although unlikely as tomorrow is flat)

Oh well it cant get much worse than yesterday!

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chrisdstripes [1728 posts] 4 years ago
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J-Rod
Henao
Hesjedal
Basso
Caruso
Pozzovivo
Samoilau
Barta
Felline

So small chance of a break but probably just GC points today. Leaves me with enough transfers to bring in 2 sprinters for tomorrow and still have exactly the team I want for Saturday...

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TERatcliffe26 [4634 posts] 4 years ago
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Im gonna take big risks on saturday, Hesjedal to be axed for Nieve/Gadret

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drheaton [3318 posts] 4 years ago
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TERatcliffe26 wrote:

Im gonna take big risks on saturday, Hesjedal to be axed for Nieve/Gadret

I'm considering the same, I could feasibly have Rodriguez, Scarponi and Basso for Saturday but I'm not sure if I'd be jumping the gun a little. Even if he doesn't do well Hesjedal should still stay top 10 GC and finish top 20.

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Wig_Billy [578 posts] 4 years ago
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My wildcard for today is Mathias Frank. Also hoping that Rubiano, Golas, & Balloni can find their way into the break.

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Alan Tullett [1568 posts] 4 years ago
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Hoping for Rubiano and Golas to go in serch of mountain points but not sure they will. Unpredictable day. Kept in Visconti even though he didn't make it yesterday. Better chance of an attack and good descent getting away today. Basso had better watch out as he seems to be cautious descending. Not going to bother much with the sprint tomorrow, buiding a team for the mountains but the first day might be a bit cagey.

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drheaton [3318 posts] 4 years ago
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The fact that we've got two days in the mountains followed by a rest day (with 4 transfers) means I might try and load my team for sprinters tommorow and hope to get a few points. I agree, Saturday will probably be cat and mouse but Sunday should be fun as a few will go all out knowing they get a rest Monday.

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nickobec [246 posts] 4 years ago
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Well 24km down and no break yet

Rubiano & Golas are my breakaway hopes, if Cesare Bendedetti does I might be upset, I almost had him in, but played conservatively, only a few low cat climbs today.

Joaquin Rodriguez (KAT)
Matthew Goss (GRE)
Ryder Hesjedal (GRM)
Benat Intxausti (MOV)
Damiano Caruso (LIQ)
Arnaud Demare (FDJ)
Miguel Angel Rubiano (AND)
Michal Golas (OPQ)
Domenico Pozzovivo (COG)

3 sprinters tomorrow and Goss is not one of them, full climbing squad for Saturday and Sunday

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chrisdstripes [1728 posts] 4 years ago
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TERatcliffe26 wrote:

Im gonna take big risks on saturday, Hesjedal to be axed for Nieve/Gadret

I'm hoping Ryder hangs in there as I got 40-1 on him (each way) at the start of the tour! Tempted to axe J-Rod, he struggled in the Vuelta once the going got really tough. But he's probably much fresher now... I dunno. I'm feeling like taking some risks, so maybe...

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drheaton [3318 posts] 4 years ago
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I can't see Saturday being a big shoot out, the top guys will test each other out but not really try and ride away just yet.

One tip for your, if you pick up Frank Schleck make sure you drop him again for Stage 17.

Oh, and William Bonnet has retired.

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drheaton [3318 posts] 4 years ago
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Quote:

BREAK: A cluster of riders have forced a gap off the front of the peloton. They include Sandy Casar (FDJ), Lars Bak (Lotto Belisol), Michael Golas (Omega Pharma) and Jan Bakelants (RadioShack).

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Gkam84 [9086 posts] 4 years ago
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Lars Bak (Lotto Belisol) Sandy Casar (FDJ-BigMat), Ivan Santaromita (BMC), Jan Bakelants (RadioShack-Nissan), Luca Mazzanti (Farnese Vini), Andrey Amador (Movistar) and Michal Golas (Omega Pharma-Quick Step)

That seems to be your break today

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Gkam84 [9086 posts] 4 years ago
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My team remains unchanged from yesterday so that I have 4 transfers to do some magic with and get my team ready for the real climbs of stage 14

Joaquin Rodriguez (KAT)
Ryder Hesjedal (GRM)
Sergio Luis Henao (SKY)
Jose Humberto Rujano (AND)
Domenico Pozzovivo (COG)
Miguel Angel Rubiano (AND)
Paolo Tiralongo (AST)
Damiano Caruso (LIQ)
Jon Izagirre (EUS)

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drheaton [3318 posts] 4 years ago
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A few likely suspects in there, Amador was on my list of potentials, Barta is trying to bridge the gap too.

Disappointed that Rubiano didn't make the break but I expect to see him try and make it across at some point today, have Golas though so reasonably happy as he'll surely get top mountain points as Rubiano doesn't even have a team mate in the break.

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Gkam84 [9086 posts] 4 years ago
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I think Androni are hanging back and working for Rujano to make sure he loses no more time, being 3.05 down already

Interesting that Gus Larrson is still only at 3.03

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Wig_Billy [578 posts] 4 years ago
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Argh, Bakelandts was one of the guys I considered bringing in today (although tbf, I did consider about half of peleton).

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Gkam84 [9086 posts] 4 years ago
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Martijn Kaizer has also made the break and Jackson Rodriguez, So Androni have put someone up there to take points away from Golas

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drheaton [3318 posts] 4 years ago
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Yes, J-Rod... Jackson Rodriguez of Androni.

That complicates things for Golas as surely J-not-Rod will be competing for the KoM points to limit Rubiano's losses.

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Gkam84 [9086 posts] 4 years ago
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Anyone know the record amount of breaks, Either in stages or KM in a grand tour?

I know its a strange stat to ask for, but with Kaizer in the break AGAIN. I feel i've seen him there every day bar yesterday. He must be on some sort of break away bonus payment. Because if he's strong enough to be there day in day out. Why not sit back in the pack and get a decent GC standing  39

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Gkam84 [9086 posts] 4 years ago
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Ok, so your men in the break, with 2.20 of a gap and 84km to the finish are

Sandy Casar (Fra), FDJ-Big Mat
Ivan Santaromita (Ita), BMC Racing
Luca Mazzanti (Ita), Farnese Vini-Selle Italia
Lars Ytting Bak (Den), Lotto Belisol
Andrey Amador Bakkazakova (CRc), Movistar
Michal Golas (Pol), Omega Pharma-Quickstep,
Jan Bakelants (Bel), RadioShack-Nissan
Jackson Rodriguez (Ven), Androni Giocattoli
Martijn Keizer (Ned), Vacansoleil-DCM

They had 2.40 at 85km, So coming down quite quickly, I guess they are going uphill and the chasing pack are on a flatter part though.

I wish this tennis would hurry up and finish and that Cetkovska just gives up. Its over 6-0 5-1 your going to lose. Give it up  19 19

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nickobec [246 posts] 4 years ago
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Golas just got the 3 points for 1st KOM

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Gkam84 [9086 posts] 4 years ago
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We have a correction.
Amets Txurruka (Spa), Euskaltel-Euskadi is in the break. Farnese Vini-Selle Italia's Luca Mazzanti is not.

The gap is declining steadily and is now down to 2:00 with 83k to go.

So coming down 20 seconds per KM

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Gkam84 [9086 posts] 4 years ago
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The men in the break are still losing time. With 75k to go, the gap is 1:54

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drheaton [3318 posts] 4 years ago
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Surely the peloton will just keep them out there, a few minutes in front? I can't see why they'd bring it back together and risk a bigger or strong group going away in the last 60km or so.

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notfastenough [3695 posts] 4 years ago
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@Gkam: Oh for the life of those on med-rest!

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Gkam84 [9086 posts] 4 years ago
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The joys  19 But i'm not working at the moment anyways. So whether or not I'd been ill, I'd still be here

70km to go, the gap rockets back up to over 3mins

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drheaton [3318 posts] 4 years ago
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What's the etiquete on a break like today? Will Golas be allowed to take all the KoM points on the proviso that he won't compete the finish or is it every man for themselves? Obviously I;d expect 'not J-Rod' to compete to help out Rubiano but will the rest leave them to it?

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Gkam84 [9086 posts] 4 years ago
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I seems "not J-Rod" is jumping off the front to try and get the points with Golas going with and the rest are leaving them to fight it out

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