Who will be in the Stage 12 Breakaway?

by robacairns   May 15, 2012  

Looking ahead, it seems that stage 12 will be a critical stage to shake up the standings. It's tailor made for a breakaway to stay away to the finish, with lots of mountain classification points on offer for the riders who make the break. Any thoughts about who will make it in?

Seems Rubiano is a no-brainer depending on how he's going (has he been sandbagging the last several stages?). But who else? Normally I would say De Gendt - perfect for his insanity - but he may be too close on GC for the peleton to let him go? Any other thoughts - someone from euskatel (Izaguirre?), someone from Colnago or NetApp or Farnese-Vini?

I'm mostly looking for some discussion to help me work through my decisions about whether to try to pick someone for the day, or play it safe and use the transfer opportunities to prep for the stages to come. But I thought it also might be a fun opportunity to talk some trash and spread some disinformation. Any thoughts?

17 user comments

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Cavendish all the way...

Honestly, Flecha, De Gendt, maybe someone like Sella or Pirazzi, the usual suspects.

posted by drheaton [3429 posts]
15th May 2012 - 19:41

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Stef Clement. He tried today and the Rabos are desperate to make an impact. Although I must say Slagter surprised me today. His inexperience made him go too soon, but definitely one to watch in the future.

Debarrio

Debarrio's picture

posted by Debarrio [78 posts]
15th May 2012 - 20:24

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Agreed, anyone from Rabo, one of the wildcard teams or anyone having a poor season so far, as well as the usual suspects from Movistar and Vaconsoliel. Problem is great breakaway stage means big break and potentially fewer points per rider.

posted by drheaton [3429 posts]
15th May 2012 - 20:29

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Sebastian Salas is good over the hills this week and enjoys getting into the breakaways.

J Andrew Hill

Its a marathon, not a snickers

...

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posted by JAndrewHill [1229 posts]
15th May 2012 - 20:43

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You could try Golas. He's second in the mountain classification. He's been earning me a steady 4 points each stage so far and I've been keeping him for this very reason.

posted by Alan Tullett [1457 posts]
15th May 2012 - 21:38

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FDJ haven't done a great deal...

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posted by chrisdstripes [1648 posts]
15th May 2012 - 21:42

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chrisdstripes wrote:
FDJ haven't done a great deal...

Yes, Casar, but he's expensive or Soupe who's cheap. But maybe they're training for the Tour.

posted by Alan Tullett [1457 posts]
15th May 2012 - 21:48

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I've been thinking, and other than perhaps Sella there aren't many people around the 12-25 minutes mark in the GC that I'd go for. Sella, Flecha, Barta and Pirazzi are probably the ones that stand out but it'll be interesting to see if Rubiano and Golas go for the break to get some KoM points.

Breakaways are so unpredictable I might not bother trying to pick someone just for that and save my transfers (or at least one) and leave Cav in my team for Friday.

Oh, and surely the only Rabo rider who'll go for the break will be Stef Clement. Slagter and Garate are too close in the GC and all the rest are sprinters or seemingly out of form.

posted by drheaton [3429 posts]
16th May 2012 - 13:05

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I'm pretty sure Rubiano is going to be in the breakaway as he wants to collect some further maglia azzura points.
Battaglin could be in there as well.
Maybe 1 Euskaltel (Oroz), 1 BMC (Ballan), 1 Farnese (Rabottini) and 3 or 4 others. Thinking

posted by arsene [217 posts]
16th May 2012 - 19:44

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I'm expecting more than that, possibly an initial group of 15 or so which reduces to 6 towards the finish

posted by drheaton [3429 posts]
16th May 2012 - 19:58

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I'm gonna go out on a limb, but Goss sat up today and had an easy one.........poss candidate for the break? Nerd Thinking

Or is that a bit above his limits!? Confused

'Don't look back. Something might be gaining on you'

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posted by livestrongnick [1848 posts]
16th May 2012 - 23:15

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I think Goss sat up because he's still suffering from Monday's crash. With a flat stage tomorrow and the chance to take back the jersey from Cavendish I can't see him 'doing a Hushovd' personally.

posted by drheaton [3429 posts]
17th May 2012 - 8:10

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I've gone for a completely random choice for the breakaway today, based on the fact that he came in 6 mins down yesterday for no discernible reason, so maybe he's saving himself/giving himself a big enough deficit to not be a threat on GC. Its Branislau Samoilau of Movistar. I have guaranteed(-ish) GC points from 6 of my guys, and am way behind, so why not take a chance - it'd be cool if it paid off, however unlikely it may be.
I also have Jan Barta, who's been sitting in my team doing naff-all for 4 days, so hopefully one or other of them will give it a go - no more than a 50-1 shot tho, I doubt I'd take such a silly risk if I was higher up the table...
Ballan could be a good shout - there aren't many stages for him after today and he did have a little dig yesterday...

chrisdstripes's picture

posted by chrisdstripes [1648 posts]
17th May 2012 - 8:23

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Ballan or Flecha. Both have the pedigree and both are just that little way off the pace for GC riders to worry about them.

There are no stupid questions, just stupid people.

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posted by stumps [2809 posts]
17th May 2012 - 9:31

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Would be really crazy if SKY had a man in the break but if they did could well see Geraint Thomas. He's capable of it and with sky missing out on 2 stage wins........ Nerd

'Don't look back. Something might be gaining on you'

livestrongnick's picture

posted by livestrongnick [1848 posts]
17th May 2012 - 10:22

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Alan Tullett wrote:
You could try Golas. He's second in the mountain classification. He's been earning me a steady 4 points each stage so far and I've been keeping him for this very reason.

Told you so Wink Wink

chrisdstripes wrote:
FDJ haven't done a great deal...

Yes, Casar, but he's expensive or Soupe who's cheap. But maybe they're training for the Tour.

Pity I didn't follow my own advice but it didn't fit into my stategy.

posted by Alan Tullett [1457 posts]
17th May 2012 - 19:28

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@robcairns

Shit!! I didn't realise how high in the Giro you were. I just looked. Best of luck. I think I'm too far back now to win, even with inspired thinking on MM days.

posted by Alan Tullett [1457 posts]
17th May 2012 - 20:12

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