Home

Looking ahead, it seems that stage 12 will be a critical stage to shake up the standings. It's tailor made for a breakaway to stay away to the finish, with lots of mountain classification points on offer for the riders who make the break. Any thoughts about who will make it in?

Seems Rubiano is a no-brainer depending on how he's going (has he been sandbagging the last several stages?). But who else? Normally I would say De Gendt - perfect for his insanity - but he may be too close on GC for the peleton to let him go? Any other thoughts - someone from euskatel (Izaguirre?), someone from Colnago or NetApp or Farnese-Vini?

I'm mostly looking for some discussion to help me work through my decisions about whether to try to pick someone for the day, or play it safe and use the transfer opportunities to prep for the stages to come. But I thought it also might be a fun opportunity to talk some trash and spread some disinformation. Any thoughts?

17 comments

Avatar
drheaton [3318 posts] 5 years ago
0 likes

Cavendish all the way...

Honestly, Flecha, De Gendt, maybe someone like Sella or Pirazzi, the usual suspects.

Avatar
Debarrio [78 posts] 5 years ago
0 likes

Stef Clement. He tried today and the Rabos are desperate to make an impact. Although I must say Slagter surprised me today. His inexperience made him go too soon, but definitely one to watch in the future.

Avatar
drheaton [3318 posts] 5 years ago
0 likes

Agreed, anyone from Rabo, one of the wildcard teams or anyone having a poor season so far, as well as the usual suspects from Movistar and Vaconsoliel. Problem is great breakaway stage means big break and potentially fewer points per rider.

Avatar
JAndrewHill [1211 posts] 5 years ago
0 likes

Sebastian Salas is good over the hills this week and enjoys getting into the breakaways.

Avatar
Alan Tullett [1570 posts] 5 years ago
0 likes

You could try Golas. He's second in the mountain classification. He's been earning me a steady 4 points each stage so far and I've been keeping him for this very reason.

Avatar
chrisdstripes [1738 posts] 5 years ago
0 likes

FDJ haven't done a great deal...

Avatar
Alan Tullett [1570 posts] 5 years ago
0 likes
chrisdstripes wrote:

FDJ haven't done a great deal...

Yes, Casar, but he's expensive or Soupe who's cheap. But maybe they're training for the Tour.

Avatar
drheaton [3318 posts] 5 years ago
0 likes

I've been thinking, and other than perhaps Sella there aren't many people around the 12-25 minutes mark in the GC that I'd go for. Sella, Flecha, Barta and Pirazzi are probably the ones that stand out but it'll be interesting to see if Rubiano and Golas go for the break to get some KoM points.

Breakaways are so unpredictable I might not bother trying to pick someone just for that and save my transfers (or at least one) and leave Cav in my team for Friday.

Oh, and surely the only Rabo rider who'll go for the break will be Stef Clement. Slagter and Garate are too close in the GC and all the rest are sprinters or seemingly out of form.

Avatar
arsene [210 posts] 5 years ago
0 likes

I'm pretty sure Rubiano is going to be in the breakaway as he wants to collect some further maglia azzura points.
Battaglin could be in there as well.
Maybe 1 Euskaltel (Oroz), 1 BMC (Ballan), 1 Farnese (Rabottini) and 3 or 4 others.  39

Avatar
drheaton [3318 posts] 5 years ago
0 likes

I'm expecting more than that, possibly an initial group of 15 or so which reduces to 6 towards the finish

Avatar
livestrongnick [2118 posts] 5 years ago
0 likes

I'm gonna go out on a limb, but Goss sat up today and had an easy one.........poss candidate for the break?  26 39

Or is that a bit above his limits!?  7

Avatar
drheaton [3318 posts] 5 years ago
0 likes

I think Goss sat up because he's still suffering from Monday's crash. With a flat stage tomorrow and the chance to take back the jersey from Cavendish I can't see him 'doing a Hushovd' personally.

Avatar
chrisdstripes [1738 posts] 5 years ago
0 likes

I've gone for a completely random choice for the breakaway today, based on the fact that he came in 6 mins down yesterday for no discernible reason, so maybe he's saving himself/giving himself a big enough deficit to not be a threat on GC. Its Branislau Samoilau of Movistar. I have guaranteed(-ish) GC points from 6 of my guys, and am way behind, so why not take a chance - it'd be cool if it paid off, however unlikely it may be.
I also have Jan Barta, who's been sitting in my team doing naff-all for 4 days, so hopefully one or other of them will give it a go - no more than a 50-1 shot tho, I doubt I'd take such a silly risk if I was higher up the table...
Ballan could be a good shout - there aren't many stages for him after today and he did have a little dig yesterday...

Avatar
Stumps [3460 posts] 5 years ago
0 likes

Ballan or Flecha. Both have the pedigree and both are just that little way off the pace for GC riders to worry about them.

Avatar
livestrongnick [2118 posts] 5 years ago
0 likes

Would be really crazy if SKY had a man in the break but if they did could well see Geraint Thomas. He's capable of it and with sky missing out on 2 stage wins........  26

Avatar
Alan Tullett [1570 posts] 5 years ago
0 likes
Alan Tullett wrote:

You could try Golas. He's second in the mountain classification. He's been earning me a steady 4 points each stage so far and I've been keeping him for this very reason.

Told you so  3 3chrisdstripes wrote:
FDJ haven't done a great deal...

Yes, Casar, but he's expensive or Soupe who's cheap. But maybe they're training for the Tour.

Pity I didn't follow my own advice but it didn't fit into my stategy.

Avatar
Alan Tullett [1570 posts] 5 years ago
0 likes

@robcairns

Shit!! I didn't realise how high in the Giro you were. I just looked. Best of luck. I think I'm too far back now to win, even with inspired thinking on MM days.