Anybody want to talk tactics, like when to incur the transfer penalty?
Personally I can not see a reason why you should choose to incur the 20 point penalty for an extra transfer. To recover the 20 points the rider will have to finish in the top 5 of the next day. You already have two transfers for the next day, so by my logic you need to pick 3 of the top 5 finishers, otherwise you lose points.
I know the points for GC, Points, KOM and Young Rider jerseys also impact on the points, but other than the 1st couple of days of a race, they are fairly predictable.
Last season I did well by planning ahead, picking climbers who could also sprint on uphill finishes (Uran), often moving in climbing DS the day before the mountain stage, rotating in climbers who could also ITT before stage 19 of the TDF (Peraud - if only I picked Martin over Cancellera for stage 20, would of won the day and top 3 TDF finish).
The changes from 1 GC, 1 PC, 1 KM, 2 AR to 4 star riders will make it harder as you will be swapping out the big value riders more often. Last year TDF I never touched my GC rider, Evans for uphill finishes stage 1 to the end. This year expect no GC or KM riders, just PC & AR in the first week, and constantly swapping between then on stages that suit so less transfers on the DS.
Still I can not justify ever spending 20 pts for a 3rd transfer. Anybody disagree ?