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Ok, a couple of things:

1. Who are the true climbers in the TDU?
Valverde, Gerrans, Meyer?
Why hasn't LL Sanchez shown himself?
Will Tiago Machado come through?
Will Sandy Casar give it a go?
Can Boassen hang?

2. What's Willunga Hill going to do to the GC?
How long is it?
What gradients?
What will the time gaps be?

37 comments

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Squiggle [403 posts] 4 years ago
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Meyer is very hard to beat when the road goes up and I agree I've been keeping a beady eye on Casar also. Don't think Boassen Hagen can stay near the front on such a grueling finish, it'll be tough for him, as for the Valve well who knows what he's been doing over the past 2 years? Should be an interesting stage although the gaps shouldn't be too large anyway.

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arsene [205 posts] 4 years ago
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Boasson Hagen is one of the main contenders both for the stage win and the GC. Willunga Hill is a climb that suits him well and he can distance the other sprinters there. Its not too difficult so he should be able to hang. Valverde, Gerrans will be up front, Meyer too, maybe Van Avermaet, Hesjedal, Matthews, LL Sanchez or Machado.

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stumps [3187 posts] 4 years ago
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EBH will be fine on Willunga Hill, people seem to forget he won a stage of the tour last year after going off on a solo break in the hills and left everyone for dead, plus he worked his whatsits off for Wiggo on stage 6 of the crit which was a hors category climb.

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JDee [10 posts] 4 years ago
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I must say if we new the answers to all of these questions it would be fairly pointless watching the race...

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Squiggle [403 posts] 4 years ago
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Clearly I was joking! EBH will be staying put in my team. I'm keeping the same team today then putting in my big 4 identified climbers tomorrow. I wouldn't touch Meyer with a barge pole this TDU, he only won last year cos he got in the right break! I can still see the title being retained though if you know what I mean.

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Simon_MacMichael [2443 posts] 4 years ago
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That was a great win by EBH on the TDF stage into Pinerolo, but it shouldn't be forgotten that he was already in a break as they went up the last climb before he attacked off the front. The GC contenders were further back - remember Tommy V's car park escapade on the way down.

On Saturday that last climb is tackled twice, so I'd expect some of the leading contenders to try and get clear first time round and then slug it out on the second climb.

Assuming the big guns are all together when they hit Mount Willunga first time round, I know who my money's on, although whether my opinion is worth anything given my showing to date is debatable  3

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stumps [3187 posts] 4 years ago
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With the form of Griepel at the mo it might be the only stage for a UniSA rider to have a pop at a win, if they can get in an early break you never know.

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Squiggle [403 posts] 4 years ago
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stumps wrote:

With the form of Griepel at the mo it might be the only stage for a UniSA rider to have a pop at a win, if they can get in an early break you never know.

LOL are you OK Stumps? Did you bump your head yesterday or just having an internet ban?  21

Or were you just playing on my original tack of feeding false info?  19

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TERatcliffe26 [4465 posts] 4 years ago
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My biggest question for my team is will it be worth taking out greipel and putting in someone like Valverde or Bakelants for the stage then reverting back to Greipel for the last stage

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stumps [3187 posts] 4 years ago
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Squiggle wrote:
stumps wrote:

With the form of Griepel at the mo it might be the only stage for a UniSA rider to have a pop at a win, if they can get in an early break you never know.

LOL are you OK Stumps? Did you bump your head yesterday or just having an internet ban?  21

Or were you just playing on my original tack of feeding false info?  19

Ah bugger, i asked for that didn't i !!! what i meant was the last chance on the tour.

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Squiggle [403 posts] 4 years ago
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OK drastic team revamp! Gotten rid of Greipel, Rojas, Haussler, and Elminger. Swapped in 3 great climbers, and 1 stonking all rounder. Prediction: Disaster but what the hell I've been way of the pace so far.  16

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Wig_Billy [577 posts] 4 years ago
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All or nothing time for me as well. I'll probably be using 4 transfers for this stage so if it doesn't work out, I'll be stuffed for the final stage.  4

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Simon_MacMichael [2443 posts] 4 years ago
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My entire strategy has been built towards getting a big points total tomorrow. Well, that's my explanation for my less-than-stellar performance to date. But who to bring in, and who to drop? Hmmm...

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stumps [3187 posts] 4 years ago
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Made 3 transfers - Gerrans in for defo plus 2 others...lets hope i dont regret this bout of activity.

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JAndrewHill [1206 posts] 4 years ago
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well i've gambled a bit and gone for the obvious guys who might want to win going uphill . . .
Go Cantwell ! Go Greipel !

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Robrien [4 posts] 4 years ago
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Hi, it's just that i have Shiplevsky (latern rouge) and in the rules it says that the last guy gets 10 points a stage. I didn't get 10 points. please can i have them?
if possible.
kind regards.

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charliemac74 [183 posts] 4 years ago
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Sorry Robrien, its the last guy over the line on each stage not the last guy overall that scores.

Shame really as LR made up most of my points last year!

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thefatcyclist [543 posts] 4 years ago
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Well this is when it all goes pear shaped for me, I guess.
I'm going to bed so here is the team.

Edvald Boasson Hagen (SKY)
Alejandro Valverde (MOV)
Simon Gerrans (GRE)
Michael Matthews (RAB)
Christopher Sutton (SKY)
Tiago Machado (RSN)
Jonathan Cantwell (SAX)
Rohan Dennis (USA)
Luke Roberts (SAX)

I fully expect to wake up to find, Roy, Casar, Hesjedal, Rojas, Ballan, Thomas, LL Sanchez have carved it up between them.

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eduardo [1 post] 4 years ago
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Looks to me like you got a pretty good team!  1 How many transfers do you have left for the next day?...

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Gkam84 [9068 posts] 4 years ago
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Ok, just made a couple of changes after saying NO i wouldn't

they went like this

Oscar Freire in for Heinrich Haussler
Rohan Dennis in for Cameron Meyer
Martin Kohler in for Steele von Hoff

SO if you have Haussler, Meyer or Van Hoff, prepare for a good score  19

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Wig_Billy [577 posts] 4 years ago
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After some last-minute umming and ahhing this is what I'm left with;

Alejandro Valverde (MOV)
Edvald Boasson Hagen (SKY)
Simon Gerrans (GRE)
Michael Matthews (RAB)

Cameron Meyer (GRE)
Christopher Sutton (SKY)
Manuel Belletti (ALM)
Jonathan Cantwell (SAX)
Matthew Lloyd (LAM)

Is anybody else getting up in the early hours to follow the final km's?

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thefatcyclist [543 posts] 4 years ago
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1 Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Movistar 3:45:48
2 Simon Gerrans (Aus) GreenEDGE
3 Tiago Machado (Por) RadioShack-Nissan 0:00:02
4 Michael Rogers (Aus) Sky Procycling 0:00:04
5 Rohan Dennis (Aus) UNI SA - Australia 0:00:07
6 Edvald Boasson Hagen (Nor) Sky Procycling 0:00:12
7 Javier Moreno (Spa) Movistar 0:00:13
8 Jan Bakelants (Bel) RadioShack-Nissan
9 Jack Bauer (NZl) Garmin-Barracuda 0:00:26
10 Eduard Vorganov (Rus) Katusha
11 Michael Matthews (Aus) Rabobank 0:00:29
12 Linus Gerdemann (Ger) RadioShack-Nissan 0:00:32
13 Gerald Ciolek (Ger) Omega Pharma-QuickStep 0:00:43
14 Danny Pate (USA) Sky Procycling 0:00:55
15 Angel Madrazo (Spa) Movistar 0:01:05
16 Serge Pauwels (Bel) Omega Pharma-QuickStep 0:01:18
17 Martin Kohler (Swi) BMC
18 Jose Joaquin Rojas (Spa) Movistar
19 Alessandro Ballan (Ita) BMC 0:01:50
20 Blel Kadri (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale

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thefatcyclist [543 posts] 4 years ago
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cmon TER don't lose it now

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dave atkinson [6147 posts] 4 years ago
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some big points from fatcyclist and up 19 places to 7th... TER down to 2nd, only 4 points in it

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Squiggle [403 posts] 4 years ago
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ARRRRGGGHHHHH!!! Back to the drawing board! Well sod it, I've just bought new wheels anyway. At least I picked the Valve but I was sure Hesjay was going to do something! Off to take out my frustrations on the training group!  14

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TERatcliffe26 [4465 posts] 4 years ago
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Trying to be clever and going for Lagutin has cost me.....knew i should have played it safe with Valverde....always tomorrow but i cant see how im gonna win, as im sure the same transfer will be made for 1 rider and then its all about the other transfer

I would have been fine if he hadn't got moreno

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Gkam84 [9068 posts] 4 years ago
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Well my transfers did well for a change  19

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thefatcyclist [543 posts] 4 years ago
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Gkam84 wrote:

Well my transfers did well for a change  19

Oh are you still in this game, heh heh.

haven't got a clue what to do for tommorrow, and as some hikes up the table were as much as 200 odd places, I assume that a drop tommorrow of similar proportions is possible. I don't know whether to play it safe and go for the points for all the jersey winners, or look for a stage winner. I don't know this race. Will it be a procession and bunch sprint, or an actual race. Greipel is obviously the form sprinter, but lots of others with something to prove.

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Gkam84 [9068 posts] 4 years ago
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To be honest, i don't have a clue either, i don't even know who has what jersey and who is leading the race??

I've just been playing guess work and not even looking at the stages as i just dont have the time, only 179 behind you though  4

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Wig_Billy [577 posts] 4 years ago
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I finally get rid of Steegmans after 4 Stages with no points, and he decides to roll in last on Stage 5.  20

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