who's for stage 19 then

by thefatcyclist   July 21, 2011  

Hoo Noo, my favourite tdf stage, and one of my best holidays ever, going there to watch it. We were there for 2 weeks, before and after, it was amazing watching the place go from very quiet, to packed and then back to quiet again. I can't remember if it was 98 or 99, the year the winner nearly got taken down by a shopping bag anyway. Rode the climb on a rented bike, ran out of gears within 2 hairpins, did it in 2 hours 07 mins !!!!
walked around watching the mechanics, spoke to Phil Liggett, great holiday. Sat in a cafe just before the tunnel watching it on TV and having grand bieres, then outside for the caravane and then the race. Hit in the eye with a sausage.

Anyway, in with the schelcks again, but will Contador have steak and testosterone patches.

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I'm going for Laurens Ten Dam with a day long break. 16 points for the climbs, 10 points for the sprint, 20 points for the win, and 10 points for combativity.

I don't mind sharing my tip because none of you are daft enough to copy me! Cool

Last time I put him in he ended up surfing the tarmac on his face! Hope he's feeling lucky! Devil

Sq

Squiggle's picture

posted by Squiggle [414 posts]
21st July 2011 - 19:23

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I'm sticking with Evans for tomorrow, Andy's got the tour sewn up if the time stays the same, So Evans has to go for it and with Andy having made a huge effort today, he'll be looking to Frank for a pull up the hills

Contador might try something that would blow everyone away if he can get his knee sorted tonight, If he could do what Andy did today and pull back 2 mins, i think he'll be looking good for the TT

My problem is picking someone in the break, but i'm not sure, I think BMC will put someone up the road, FDJ of course and then Euski, but my pick for the break today didn't go for it and my 2nd n 3rd picks (who i couldn't put in the team) were up the road

I'm thinking of making a big fat 0 transfers tonight as i have a perfect team today and then again tomorrow, just glad my plan has finally come good, but then i need to work out how to fit Cav in for Paris Big Grin

Gkam84's picture

posted by Gkam84 [9239 posts]
21st July 2011 - 19:38

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I'm thinking of bringing in Cadel for Andy today. They should earn almost even points tomorrow and then Evans can earn a few more for the TT.

Wondering if I should even bother with making any changes in the DS group. How're the chances for a break going away tomorrow after today's massacre?

~rbx

rbx's picture

posted by rbx [243 posts]
21st July 2011 - 19:47

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Andy has no chance of winning overall his TT is useless by the standards of Evans. He needs at least 3 mins on Evans before the TT to win and thats a big if as i dont think he can do the same tomorrow as today. Thinking

There are no stupid questions, just stupid people.

stumps's picture

posted by stumps [3067 posts]
21st July 2011 - 19:52

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Cheers Stumps I was a bit taken aback by that comment myself. What comics does that Gkam read? If the TT was tomorrow Andy would probably podium behind Evans and Tommy V. Thinking

Sq

Squiggle's picture

posted by Squiggle [414 posts]
21st July 2011 - 20:34

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The problem Schleck has is that a: tomorrows stage is only just over 100km which means any breaks need to be started early to give him the chance of getting as much time as possible and b: there are at least 4 going for the young riders jersey who are all much the same on TT so they need to do it tomorrow and get the time they need which will in turn pull the peleton along quite quickly.

There are no stupid questions, just stupid people.

stumps's picture

posted by stumps [3067 posts]
21st July 2011 - 20:54

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stumps wrote:
Andy has no chance of winning overall his TT is useless by the standards of Evans. He needs at least 3 mins on Evans before the TT to win and thats a big if as i dont think he can do the same tomorrow as today. Thinking

Really? so this http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/tour-de-france-2010/stage-19/results

Thats last years TT, Andy beat Evans by 4 minutes and I know Evans wasn't in the best shape but he aint been great in TT's over the past for years

Gkam84's picture

posted by Gkam84 [9239 posts]
21st July 2011 - 21:02

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Gkam84 wrote:
stumps wrote:
Andy has no chance of winning overall his TT is useless by the standards of Evans. He needs at least 3 mins on Evans before the TT to win and thats a big if as i dont think he can do the same tomorrow as today. Thinking

Really? so this http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/tour-de-france-2010/stage-19/results

Thats last years TT, Andy beat Evans by 4 minutes and I know Evans wasn't in the best shape but he aint been great in TT's over the past for years

That was a mountain time trial! Where did Cancellara finish?

Sq

Squiggle's picture

posted by Squiggle [414 posts]
21st July 2011 - 21:03

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Squiggle wrote:
Gkam84 wrote:
stumps wrote:
Andy has no chance of winning overall his TT is useless by the standards of Evans. He needs at least 3 mins on Evans before the TT to win and thats a big if as i dont think he can do the same tomorrow as today. Thinking

Really? so this http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/tour-de-france-2010/stage-19/results

Thats last years TT, Andy beat Evans by 4 minutes and I know Evans wasn't in the best shape but he aint been great in TT's over the past for years

That was a mountain time trial! Where did Cancellara finish?

WOOPS! Walked into that one! Blushing

Sq

Squiggle's picture

posted by Squiggle [414 posts]
21st July 2011 - 21:05

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Squiggle wrote:

That was a mountain time trial! Where did Cancellara finish?

He won it Nerd

Wasn't mountain tho http://cdn.media.cyclingnews.com/2010/06/16/2/gr214628_600.jpg

Gkam84's picture

posted by Gkam84 [9239 posts]
21st July 2011 - 21:06

3 Likes

If A Sclheck has 1 min 30 to 2 mins on Evans, on the Grenoble course he might do it.

Here are 5 recent gaps.

30 sec
1 min
1 min 2 sec
1 min 57
1 min 22

average 70 secs.

posted by thefatcyclist [584 posts]
21st July 2011 - 21:07

4 Likes

I dont even think he needs that to be honest, knowing Voeckler cant TT will be enough for the Schlecks and Evans to be pushing full gas, i can see them all finishing around the same time

Gkam84's picture

posted by Gkam84 [9239 posts]
21st July 2011 - 21:09

3 Likes

Don't think Cadel's performance in last year's TT is of any relavance given his injuries.

What is of relevance from last year is Andy's surprisingly strong performance in the TT, giving only 40-something secs to Bertie. The same Bertie who had beaten Cadel by 30 odd secs in 2009.

I'm still not sure whether to swap Andy for Cadel Confused

~rbx

rbx's picture

posted by rbx [243 posts]
21st July 2011 - 21:09

2 Likes

to be fair tho cadel did well in the criterium time trial which is exactly the same course so ya no, im tipping cadel to do well in it.

As for tommorrow im gonna go a TT guy that could also go in a break i think.

As for getting cav in im thinking cadel out and danielson in, ok i may loose up to abaout 8 GC points guaranteed, but surely cav will win green and if he doesnt win will still be in the top 3, therefore his 22/25 points outweigh what may be lost for the cadel sacrifice

posted by TERatcliffe26 [4282 posts]
21st July 2011 - 21:14

2 Likes

Best look at results from Dauphine. It's the same TT course, Evans was 6th at 1'20" behind Tony Martin. Actually looking through the results it might well be a close one, money's still on Evans though.

Sq

Squiggle's picture

posted by Squiggle [414 posts]
21st July 2011 - 21:21

2 Likes

Remember Contador can TT better than all of them and has beaten Cancellara in the past. If he gets a couple of mins back tomorrow, he could still be dangerous. But I don't think he will get that back tomorrow. tho'. My prediction is that some of the guys that have given us so much pleasure over the last few days,like the youngsters, plus Chavanel, Roy, Casar, Nicky Roche will group and one of them will win the stage,
a second group containing the Schlecks, Contador, Evans will be second in at around 3 mins and, Tommy V, Sanchez, Cunego etc will come in in a 3rd group, about 5 mins down. But i'm crap at this remember. Big Grin

posted by thefatcyclist [584 posts]
21st July 2011 - 21:24

2 Likes

I may regret this but I've put sammy in for Evans. That descent from Galibier suits him.

Don't buy upgrades. Ride up grades. (Merckx)

obutterwick's picture

posted by obutterwick [538 posts]
21st July 2011 - 21:27

2 Likes

TERatcliffe26 wrote:
to be fair tho cadel did well in the criterium time trial which is exactly the same course so ya no, im tipping cadel to do well in it.

As for tommorrow im gonna go a TT guy that could also go in a break i think.

As for getting cav in im thinking cadel out and danielson in, ok i may loose up to abaout 8 GC points guaranteed, but surely cav will win green and if he doesnt win will still be in the top 3, therefore his 22/25 points outweigh what may be lost for the cadel sacrifice

Tony will be saving himself for the cancellara showdown Smile

posted by thefatcyclist [584 posts]
21st July 2011 - 21:37

2 Likes

yeh i reckon so and neither will be in my team unless frank or voeckler mess up greatly 2moz

posted by TERatcliffe26 [4282 posts]
21st July 2011 - 21:50

4 Likes

short stage cofidis fdj in the break 1st stage win for the french allez roy

posted by prinzi [87 posts]
21st July 2011 - 21:51

2 Likes

thefatcyclist wrote:
Remember Contador can TT better than all of them and has beaten Cancellara in the past. If he gets a couple of mins back tomorrow, he could still be dangerous. But I don't think he will get that back tomorrow. tho'. My prediction is that some of the guys that have given us so much pleasure over the last few days,like the youngsters, plus Chavanel, Roy, Casar, Nicky Roche will group and one of them will win the stage,
a second group containing the Schlecks, Contador, Evans will be second in at around 3 mins and, Tommy V, Sanchez, Cunego etc will come in in a 3rd group, about 5 mins down. But i'm crap at this remember. Big Grin

Yeah but he also has a hurty knee and is clearly not firing on all cylinders. Remember he only beat Sparticus because he got a tow off a TV motorbike.

So long as Ten Dam, Quinziato, Amador, and Roy get in the break I'll be happy! Otherwise bring on la Vuelta! Cool

Sq

Squiggle's picture

posted by Squiggle [414 posts]
21st July 2011 - 22:06

2 Likes

we're all agreed that frank can't TT though, right?

Big Grin

Dave Atkinson's picture

posted by Dave Atkinson [7742 posts]
21st July 2011 - 22:11

2 Likes

Made both my transfers but they're both about the TT, not tomorrow. yr man dekkers is in to free up some cash, here's hoping sabatini either has a go off the front or misses the cut Smile

Dave Atkinson's picture

posted by Dave Atkinson [7742 posts]
21st July 2011 - 22:17

3 Likes

I still think Andy has blown it this year, he might be doing better in the TT's of late but i think Evans will have the bit between his teeth and just steal it from him.

But then again i swapped Evans for Sammy for todays stage - shows how much i know Big Grin

There are no stupid questions, just stupid people.

stumps's picture

posted by stumps [3067 posts]
21st July 2011 - 22:40

2 Likes

If Evans really wants it, this is the best chance he's ever going to get. Contador's nowhere, the schlecks are only going to be stronger next year.

Dave Atkinson's picture

posted by Dave Atkinson [7742 posts]
21st July 2011 - 22:45

2 Likes

dave_atkinson wrote:
we're all agreed that frank can't TT though, right?

Big Grin

Depends whether or not he's got his CamelFront, no? Wink

Simon_MacMichael's picture

posted by Simon_MacMichael [9105 posts]
21st July 2011 - 23:36

1 Like