This coming week's Giro

by Joelsim   May 18, 2014  

Transfer hell!

There are going to have to be penalties every day, hmmm.

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Joelsim wrote:
Right, team for next 5 stages picked and written down! Surprise

LOL nice prep Nerd

Waaaa Waaaaa !

VVV73's picture

posted by VVV73 [399 posts]
19th May 2014 - 5:28

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I'm doing badly in this, so will probably go stage-hunting, eg make my TT transfers a day early so I don't incur pens on the day, that kind of thing. Will end up with some very poor stages, but hopefully a couple of really good ones as well.

My main hope of getting something out of this is backing Kelderman at 150/1 each-way a few weeks ago...

chrisdstripes's picture

posted by chrisdstripes [1648 posts]
19th May 2014 - 12:17

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chrisdstripes wrote:
I'm doing badly in this, so will probably go stage-hunting, eg make my TT transfers a day early so I don't incur pens on the day, that kind of thing. Will end up with some very poor stages, but hopefully a couple of really good ones as well.

My main hope of getting something out of this is backing Kelderman at 150/1 each-way a few weeks ago...

nice Applause i got some 200 win only on betfair- and he wont win! but also got some 9/4 on a top 10 placing and that is looking good.

now, onto next week- sorry, havent got a clue what to do!

johnny2names's picture

posted by johnny2names [199 posts]
19th May 2014 - 12:48

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Annoyingly I had 150/1 on Harry Dondo, which fell by the wayside in one stage!

posted by Joelsim [1446 posts]
19th May 2014 - 12:48

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I spent about 3 hours planning my team last night and think I have come up with a plan. No doubt it won't work. But starting from 100 penalty points in my first draft, I now have it down to 10 with hopefully not too much of a compromise on sprinters.

There don't seem to be as many good TTers as normal in this one.

posted by Joelsim [1446 posts]
19th May 2014 - 12:50

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Yeah, there are a couple of TT specialists, but if its hilly they might not get so much of an advantage, and there aren't too many GC guys that really TT well (not like Froome/Wiggo or even Nibali/Contador) so that could be an unpredictable stage. In hindsight maybe not the best one for stage-hunting!

chrisdstripes's picture

posted by chrisdstripes [1648 posts]
19th May 2014 - 13:13

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Chicchi has abandoned hasn't he?

posted by stevemarks [424 posts]
19th May 2014 - 13:14

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stevemarks wrote:
Chicchi has abandoned hasn't he?

Yes Steve he has. I currently have him grayed out on my team Nerd

'Don't look back. Something might be gaining on you'

livestrongnick's picture

posted by livestrongnick [1848 posts]
19th May 2014 - 16:06

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So transfers done x3 which gives me 1 saved. Brought in 3 sprinters under 20 credits each, which should score more than the 16 points i would of got if i'd not made any transfers. Assuming they do all score then i'll finally get that damn Full House Badge Silly

Chicchi gone from my team too.

'Don't look back. Something might be gaining on you'

livestrongnick's picture

posted by livestrongnick [1848 posts]
19th May 2014 - 17:18

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4 transfers done and 2 transfers saved.

posted by Joelsim [1446 posts]
19th May 2014 - 19:19

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It is an interesting week, and I'm certain that penalties will be necessary. It's easier for a sprint stage where, barring a very unlikely sticky break, you know who the guys are who will roll in in the top ten and probably at least let you break even on the ten point pens.

The ITT is the real thumbsucker, though. I'm inclined to trust in a couple of the GC guys but otherwise a it's bit of a crapshoot and I might just look to write that stage off rather than spend pens on it. I have a bad track record with TTs in this game!

On Ulissi - he is riding well in GC but I expect him to drop out if not by the end of this week then by the mountain TT. He'll still be targeting stage wins, and at this point why not try for a day in pink? (OK, I know, he's usually in Lampre pink).

While the Giro itself won't be won this week, I think the Fantasy Giro might be...

Ghedebrav's picture

posted by Ghedebrav [1101 posts]
19th May 2014 - 19:20

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Ghedebrav wrote:

While the Giro itself won't be won this week, I think the Fantasy Giro might be...

I have to agree , roughly 100 points separate the top 14 or 15 in fs league .....I'm a few points behind you and only 37 of joel which is why I've spent the last 2 hours deliberating on how to use my transfers over the next 3 days ....currently have 6 to use but no idea still on what to Silly Drooling

posted by Theinvisiblecyclist [73 posts]
19th May 2014 - 19:44

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Theinvisiblecyclist wrote:
Ghedebrav wrote:

While the Giro itself won't be won this week, I think the Fantasy Giro might be...

I have to agree , roughly 100 points separate the top 14 or 15 in fs league .....I'm a few points behind you and only 37 of joel which is why I've spent the last 2 hours deliberating on how to use my transfers over the next 3 days ....currently have 6 to use but no idea still on what to Silly Drooling

It's not an easy choice for sure.

posted by Joelsim [1446 posts]
19th May 2014 - 20:17

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Got the spreadsheet out. No penalties all week. However, this sort of conservative attitude is why I'm 167th.

posted by Twybaydos [358 posts]
19th May 2014 - 22:13

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Well I thought , I swapped I changed I reset..... I eventually decided to risk 7 transfers and aim for a fh badge as well as a high score , 1 penalty offset by gc points etc ...... Who knows how this week is going to pan out but I've decided penalties are the way forwards.

Bold or stupid? Thinking

posted by Theinvisiblecyclist [73 posts]
20th May 2014 - 5:31

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TT is a good place to make some ground Joel for sure, only problem I got is trying to fit 3 riders from the one team in LOL . They all off something great each:(
One is a jersey leader (Who I have), one is a sprinter and a TTer , and one is a cheap great value TTer (who I have).
This could be a massive turning point in tour these next Cpl days, fantasy wise.

Waaaa Waaaaa !

VVV73's picture

posted by VVV73 [399 posts]
20th May 2014 - 5:46

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TERatcliffe26 wrote:
Not so sure, so long a you axe the right riders.

10 = sprint
11 = taylor made for Ulissi (maybe a break, or maybe even Matthews)
12 = ITT can't see any outstanding favourites from a TT perspective (seems a bit long/hilly for some of the Orica guys), although me and you have my 2 top tips (certainly from a GC perspective)
13 = another sprint
14 = GC
15 = GC

I think penalties will be needed as you say but I think you can manage it quite well to make as few as possible. (ie. not gonna change Godoy or Chicchi for tomorrow, not worth it is it, to swap for another 3 point guy for this stage)

I did similar ratings to each stage above pre tour. I had stage 11 down as a Voecklar type stage. A GUN DOWNHILLER Smile
Sammy "DIRTY" Sanchez, if he wasn't helping Cadel , would have went here for sure.
I am keeping Godoy atm, who knows Belletti or Pullizetti could win a stage and give him TM pts. lol .
Chicchi I am going to sell I THINK, as I have found a 3.0 sprinter replacement. Have a think about the teams and who have lost sprinters so far Wink
Will be selling Quintana tonight, don't see the 3 pts he is carrying much use over next Cpl days, but the money certainly could be.
Going to use 3 trades tonight just carry the 1 over for 3 on TT ( I don't think as many trades as normal needed for TT due to gradient a lot of the GC riders like this).
Hmm in Hindsight, sprinting TTer won't get over this TT.
RETHINK! Confused

Waaaa Waaaaa !

VVV73's picture

posted by VVV73 [399 posts]
20th May 2014 - 6:19

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While I am here, I would just like to give a mention to Nacer Bouhanni.

HOW BRAVE IS THIS KID.
After watching his face plant into road last year around bend at good speed, I was curious as to how he would come back.
Then I seen him absolutely on the edge, spinning the rear wheel sideways around wet bend on stage 4. Thought Gutsy, brave, seems fearless.
THEN on Stage 7 he goes up the inside of Mezgec ( not a small guy) against the barrier, wheel even clips bottom, with explosive speed. Always knew he was mega talented, but to see the bravery ( or is it just reckless youth bravado, I doubt it) he has shown.
No wonder about 7 to 9 teams are chasing him.
Can't wait to see how Caleb matches up against these guys later in year for Orica.

Waaaa Waaaaa !

VVV73's picture

posted by VVV73 [399 posts]
20th May 2014 - 7:03

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Just three transfers today, leaving me one in the bank. May not be my cleverest move, but I'm getting myself used to the idea of trying for a reasonable score every day rather than the usual peaks and troughs. I think I've got the 1-2-3 anyway Big Grin

Barring a not-impossible breakaway win, I reckon Bouhanni's nailed on for this. He's still not in the same class as Kittel/Cav/Greipel though, a shame Kittel retired.

Anyone else fancy Pozzivivo for the podium, by the way? His odds have been slashed ( though I got a small sum on him e/w at 28/1 before kickoff).

Ghedebrav's picture

posted by Ghedebrav [1101 posts]
20th May 2014 - 7:04

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Ghedebrav wrote:

Barring a not-impossible breakaway win, I reckon Bouhanni's nailed on for this. He's still not in the same class as Kittel/Cav/Greipel though, a shame Kittel retired.

Anyone else fancy Pozzivivo for the podium, by the way? His odds have been slashed ( though I got a small sum on him e/w at 28/1 before kickoff).

Kittel = Fastest in the world maybe...
Cav = Best in the world...
Greipel = My fav sprinter and nicest? in the world Smile We love him in down under, supported our tour every year.

Pozzo, might actually enjoy this TT and showed he still got the legs and form he showed earlier in season on stage 9. Bookies might have thought he had gone over the top (peaked) when he got left a tad on stage 8.
Quintana hasn't really got me enthused at all so far this season.
Pozz have to be a E/W show , It's a long way home.

Waaaa Waaaaa !

VVV73's picture

posted by VVV73 [399 posts]
20th May 2014 - 7:13

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Theinvisiblecyclist wrote:
Well I thought , I swapped I changed I reset..... I eventually decided to risk 7 transfers and aim for a fh badge as well as a high score , 1 penalty offset by gc points etc ...... Who knows how this week is going to pan out but I've decided penalties are the way forwards.

Bold or stupid? Thinking

I decided against this move, as for every transfer you make today, you have to do another for tomorrow, and another for Wednesday, and another for Thursday and Friday. There is very little common ground.

So I've gone for some sprinters but also who have a small possibility of being useful for Wednesday, kept the GC boys in and have also kept Gasparotto for tomorrow. A couple of changes planned each day up until Friday. Not going big on the TT, just two.

There was talk of a certain OPQS rider making the TT his goal, not sure whether it's worth going for.

So, for me I hope I can get through the week with no penalties with a good squad for each day (Wednesday of course, who knows). A couple of transfers in the bank just in case, and plans already made for next week barring hiccoughs.

posted by Joelsim [1446 posts]
20th May 2014 - 8:30

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I made 4 transfers, with 1 in hand - just brought in 4 sprinters for today. Tomorrow seems unpredictable, so will minimise swaps, and then its the TT. Pretty sure who I'm bringing in now for the next 3 stages, but crashes can change everything...

chrisdstripes's picture

posted by chrisdstripes [1648 posts]
20th May 2014 - 8:35

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Joelsim wrote:
Theinvisiblecyclist wrote:
Well I thought , I swapped I changed I reset..... I eventually decided to risk 7 transfers and aim for a fh badge as well as a high score , 1 penalty offset by gc points etc ...... Who knows how this week is going to pan out but I've decided penalties are the way forwards.

Bold or stupid? Thinking

I decided against this move, as for every transfer you make today, you have to do another for tomorrow, and another for Wednesday, and another for Thursday and Friday. There is very little common ground.

So I've gone for some sprinters but also who have a small possibility of being useful for Wednesday, kept the GC boys in and have also kept Gasparotto for tomorrow. A couple of changes planned each day up until Friday. Not going big on the TT, just two.

There was talk of a certain OPQS rider making the TT his goal, not sure whether it's worth going for.

So, for me I hope I can get through the week with no penalties with a good squad for each day (Wednesday of course, who knows). A couple of transfers in the bank just in case, and plans already made for next week barring hiccoughs.

I'll be honest I eventually thought
" I've a good chance of getting a big score today if it pans out as it should while I believe a lot of ppl will play it cagey which in turn will mitigate against transfers over the next 2/3 days"

If it does work out then I should see a net gain by playing bold for this stage with the gc points negating the penalty and allowing me the choice of at least 2 penalties over the following two days ... That's 20 point loss for 13 changes in 3 stages , it will be interesting to see which of our strategies works out at least Smile

posted by Theinvisiblecyclist [73 posts]
20th May 2014 - 8:58

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Joelsim wrote:
Theinvisiblecyclist wrote:
Well I thought , I swapped I changed I reset..... I eventually decided to risk 7 transfers and aim for a fh badge as well as a high score , 1 penalty offset by gc points etc ...... Who knows how this week is going to pan out but I've decided penalties are the way forwards.

Bold or stupid? Thinking

I decided against this move, as for every transfer you make today, you have to do another for tomorrow, and another for Wednesday, and another for Thursday and Friday. There is very little common ground.

So I've gone for some sprinters but also who have a small possibility of being useful for Wednesday, kept the GC boys in and have also kept Gasparotto for tomorrow. A couple of changes planned each day up until Friday. Not going big on the TT, just two.

There was talk of a certain OPQS rider making the TT his goal, not sure whether it's worth going for.

So, for me I hope I can get through the week with no penalties with a good squad for each day (Wednesday of course, who knows). A couple of transfers in the bank just in case, and plans already made for next week barring hiccoughs.


Smart move I feel, don't want to be to sprinter heavy as none of them that can TT will get over this one, maybe EBH.
Pissed myself laughing, when I read your OPQs comment. If it is who I think it is , he has shown a bit of his old form lately, tho I don't think I will be using him. Good Luck Smile

Waaaa Waaaaa !

VVV73's picture

posted by VVV73 [399 posts]
20th May 2014 - 9:03

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how did I get this mess Sad Just said , Hate to be around if a break wins Smile


I'll be honest I eventually thought
" I've a good chance of getting a big score today if it pans out as it should while I believe a lot of ppl will play it cagey which in turn will mitigate against transfers over the next 2/3 days"

If it does work out then I should see a net gain by playing bold for this stage with the gc points negating the penalty and allowing me the choice of at least 2 penalties over the following two days ... That's 20 point loss for 13 changes in 3 stages , it will be interesting to see which of our strategies works out at least Smile

Waaaa Waaaaa !

VVV73's picture

posted by VVV73 [399 posts]
20th May 2014 - 9:09

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I've managed to get 4 sprinters in for today and should be able to get 4 in for Friday too with no penalties, plus ensuring I have a chance of some decent points tmw and Thursday.

That's the plan anyway! Worried

posted by Joelsim [1446 posts]
20th May 2014 - 9:12

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Went all in on a sprint today, made all of my six changes to bring in sprinters.

At this point in time, with a penalty only costing 10 points, I figured it was worth chancing 6 top 10 finishes against three or four penalty transfers through the week.

posted by drheaton [3429 posts]
20th May 2014 - 9:14

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Joelsim wrote:
I've managed to get 4 sprinters in for today and should be able to get 4 in for Friday too with no penalties, plus ensuring I have a chance of some decent points tmw and Thursday.

That's the plan anyway! Worried


It's is certain make or break time is fantasy, you could go a few ways here over next couple stages, BIG shake up I feel.
My purist team is starting to fall apart now, losing Matthews and Chicci (didn't expect much more, got his pts.) Lucky my last sprinter in there is Nizzolo and I know he would love to win his first Giro stage soon Smile

Waaaa Waaaaa !

VVV73's picture

posted by VVV73 [399 posts]
20th May 2014 - 9:17

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drheaton wrote:
Went all in on a sprint today, made all of my six changes to bring in sprinters.

At this point in time, with a penalty only costing 10 points, I figured it was worth chancing 6 top 10 finishes against three or four penalty transfers through the week.


Starting to think my best result is to sit quiet and pray for break to last. Devil

Waaaa Waaaaa !

VVV73's picture

posted by VVV73 [399 posts]
20th May 2014 - 9:23

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You've got to be in it to win it!

posted by Joelsim [1446 posts]
20th May 2014 - 9:46

94 Likes